On 1 October 2016 , Turkish President (Recep Tayyip Erdogan) identified features of Turkish foreign policy in front of the Turkish Parliament, talking about the evolution of the political and military conditions on the ground in Iraq, pointed to the coming battle of Mosul, by saying (he objects to the participation of sectarian militias, which means the militias of popular crowd because they are trying to play the same tricks in Mosul which they do the killing and intimidation, displacement and the demographic and ethnic change inside Syrian territory) and linking between them and terrorist methods of the Turkish workers’ Party, adding (we will continue in our efforts to prevent any ethnic and sectarian clashes in Mosul( .
In an interview to the Turkish president with the Saudi Arabia channel ( Rotana Khalij) , he stressed that he is (careful not to let any sectarian rule on the Mosul because the goal is just to clear it from Daesh) confirmed that the Mosel is for the people of Mosul and Tal Afar no one is entitled to come and enter these areas and that the Mosel will be after its liberation only to its people of the Arabs, Turkmen and Kurds.
In a careful reading of the President’s remarks, Erdogan and for the new features set by him for internal and external policy of the Turkish government, which will be pursued in Arab and regional region and risks in which this region is facing , we can identify the following main points:
1.Turkish President had identified the risks of the move that the popular crowd forces aspire to it and have an Iranian scheme seek to implement it because of the Iranian dominance and influence in Iraq and its impact on the Iraqi political decision.
2. the Iranian hands are working hard to prevent the Turkish – Iraqi relations to reach a positive way and always working to move its allies inside Iraq to raise sectarian and racial strife in determining the paths of this relationship.
3. the Turkish President assures on the eligibility of the people of Mosul to live in peace and harmony and tolerance and unified social fabric which was the main feature that characterized the Mosul community in earlier decades when these features were identified by relationship of coherence of Arabs, Turkmen and Kurds and this is a clear indication to keep the province of Nineveh united, and without any project to divide it ..
4. All Turkish government allies , the United States and Arab and European countries called for taking part in the protection of Iraq and its cities, particularly the city of Mosul, from the coming evil to it and sought by the popular crowd forces and the need to prevent their participation and presence in the battle to liberate Mosul.
5. the importance of mentioning of the city of Tal Afar by Turkish President in his speech to the Turkish parliament comes from being the largest Iraqi district and the proportion of the Turkmens of it living in peace and security with all the inhabitants of different nationalities and denominations and knows the fact of targets and sectarian aspirations sought by Iran with its tools of the popular crowd fighters in control and presence within the district under the pretext of protecting (Turkmen Shiites), which is a goal of a virtual features , but the fact that it falls within the two important points are:
a. Iran to be close to the Iraqi – Syrian border area and contributes to send fighters from volunteers , participants in the popular crowd of Iraqi battalions and Shiite volunteers of Afghans and Pakistanis and supplying the Syrian regime with weapons and ammunition in a streamlined and freedom of movement.
B. To control on Tal Afar military airport which is one of the most important military sites in the province of Nineveh, which will facilitate the movement of advisors and senior officers of Iranian fighters and volunteers from Baghdad airport to the Afar military airport and facilitate their entry into Syrian territory to support the Iranian expansionist project and protect the ruling political system in Syria.
6. the presence of the Turkish Workers Party inside Iraq has become of clear features and fight through a series of military clashes which are still taking place in the surrounding areas and near Sinjar district and within the district of Rebiya, located in the northern city of Mosul, and this poses a security deep that threatens Turkish national security and therefore The presence of this party and its fighters who will fight side by side with the popular crowd fighters if they enter the Afar district limiting Rabia area by Alaaadih area and because of the strong relationship between the Labour Party and Baghdad government which it had received financial and military aid through Sulaymaniyah airport and under the supervision and guidance of of (Qassem Soleimani ) who commissioned (Abu Mahdi Mohandes) to be a mediator between the leaders of the popular crowd and the workers’ Party and the delivery of aid to them.
7. Assures the need for the Turkish presence in any future political dialogue about the next situation that the city of Mosul faces after liberation and that the Turkish government will (not only monitoring) and this infuriated the Iraqi government, which has renewed its rejection of any Turkish role in the battle of Mosul.
8. the scheme disclosed, which is working on by the leaders of the popular crowd and Iran’s pressure to the need for the participation of the crowd and to have a key role in the liberation of the province of Nineveh, and this attitude has led to an escalation of statements that advocated by leaders of the popular crowd (League of Ahl –AL-Haq , Movement of Nujaba and Khorasani and the Badr Organization) and considered the Turkish existence as (occupation forces) and the need to confront and drive it out .
Will we see in the coming days, a Turkish military operation similar to the operation (shield of Euphrates) that Turkish troops are still going on to the northern Syrian territory or there is an understanding will be determined by the features of the upcoming Battle of Mosul?
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies