The battle to liberate Mosul from al Daesh is not a battle of the international coalition led by the US administration and not the Iraqi government nor Turkey, which is trying to participate in spite of the refusal of Iraqi government to do so, but also is the battle of the Iranian regime there. So Haider Abadi, Iraq’s prime minister could not commit to what was agreed upon with Barack Obama , President of the United States in continued US support for Iraq in its fight against al Daesh on condition of non- participation of the popular crowd at the Battle of Mosul. As the Prime Minister said in a press conference held on Sunday in the city of Karbala, south of Baghdad, to hold on to its participation in it. the leaders of the popular crowd of great political and military influence show determination to be involved in the battle of Mosul, despite the objections of the people of the city themselves for fear of retaliatory sectarian practices that are already carried out by factions of the crowd in the Iraqi Sunni areas.
In this context , Authority of the popular crowd confirmed on Sunday, that the battle for the restoration of the Mosul from the control of the organization Daesh would begin within days, saying that the participation of the crowd in the battle has become by virtue of “the end “, whereas it renewed its rejection of the presence of any foreign power on Iraqi territories . the spokesman of Authority , Ahmed al-Asadi told Alsumaria channel that “the commander of the armed forces, the Prime Minister announced several months ago in the House of Representatives that the popular crowd would be the basic forces involved in the liberation of Mosul, then announced it at every opportunity, and therefore it is a decision.” Asadi pointed out that “our units on the ground, and began to deploy and move and preparing, and the issue of participation has become by virtue of the end in terms of the resolution,” noting that “the battle of Mosul would begin within days.” The question in this context, what does it mean the participation of the popular crowd at the Battle of Mosul for the Iranian regime?
The Iranian regime has used the operations of the organization of Daesh as instruments of control and influence of the Iraqi society, in order to guide the Iraqi public as it wants, and to secure its geopolitical presence in Iraq to face the others. The Iranian regime has tempted Iraqi Shiites pretending that it is their support and ally, which is fighting on their behalf against al Daesh, and pushed under this curtain to create militias trained and armed by it and put them at the top of ladder of power and the military, and they were given prominent roles in addressing others, and their decision has become the first decision in the state, to the extent that any Iraqi official was unable to exceed these militias. While everyone knows how the Iranian regime destroyed the southern Iraqi cities, throughout the eight-year war by missile and artillery bombardment .
So those who are concerned to the Iraqi affairs believe that the popular crowd forces, which includes tens of thousands of fighters belonging to the Shi’ite militias, are only an Iranian reserve Army to the Iraqi armed forces due to a link of these militias regarding the leadership , funding and arming to Tehran. Therefore Shiite militias are seeking from behind their participation in the liberation of Mosul to extend its influence, and then to extend from behind the Iranian regime’s influence to the areas of Sunni majority to establish a presence in Iraq and remove any potential threat to this presence . And establish its influence on it through the use of the Turkmen “Shiite sectarian factor” in the city of “Afar” and also seeks to limit the Kurdish expansion in more land, while it has not understood yet the penetration in Kirkuk .But it will not keep silent to let the city out of power. It recognizes that «Peshmerga» contribution in the liberation of Mosul consolidates the presence of the Government of Irbil in the vicinity of the city. And facilitates the defense of their spread in the disputed territory. Just as it facilitates trade and economic communication with Turkey. Militias «crowd» is aware that the return of Sunni forces to the administration of province of Nineveh will only strengthens the presence of those who were confronted by the Maliki government in recent years and contributed to the creation of the «state-Baghdadi» . Tehran does not hide its desire to keep away the Turkish influence on Iraq and Kurdistan, as its policy in Syria. It may only leave the rural areas bordering Turkey, which considers this as a part of its security space and its economic and political interests. Therefore, it did not hesitate to promote dissension within the ranks of the Kurds and the Sunni Arabs as well. though they are aware of the understanding between Ankara and Moscow regarding the future of Aleppo, and is aware of what links between Ankara and Washington, despite what taints the relationship between the two capitals these days. So it do not miss the calculations that there are more than a hammer to hit on its tendons . Starting from the authority in Najaf to the fragmentation of the Shiite forces and compete for power and generate gains and interests. And the US return and the gains for the Kurds and the Sunni Arabs … to the scene of the popular demonstrations in squares that were calling for , a few months ago with the highest sound , to the lifting of the hand of Tehran from Baghdad!
The participation of the popular crowd at the Battle of Mosul would be a geo-strategically importance to the Iranian regime to confirm to all the actors on the Arab, regional and international level that it was able to hire the outputs of US occupation of Iraq in order to serve its interests and promotes territorial gains as stated by “Martin Chuluuv” correspondent of the newspaper “The Observer” in the Lebanese capital Beirut, through the interviews were conducted over the past four months with influential Iraqi officials and citizens in the north of Syria, confirmed that the landmarks of Iran’s path towards the Mediterranean Sea has become known , what makes the tasks of the popular crowd, west of Mosul part of the Iranian workshop in which different forces involved in its completion , working to achieve the ambitions of Tehran. The corridor starts from Baquba in Diyala province, the nearest Iraqi city to the Iranian border , toward Shirqat in Salahuddin province controlled by the militia in September, and extends toward the Afar and Sinjar controlled since last November by “PKK” forces coming from Syria and continue along the corridor of the Rabia crossing between Iraq and Syria through al-Qamishli and Ain Al-Arab (Kobani) down to Afrin, noting that they are areas controlled by the Kurdish People’s Protection Units . That the Iranian regime believes that it is “in the right place.”
Aleppo is considered pivotal point for this corridor, and the city drained Iranian efforts superior to everything done at other points, as Tehran sent more than six thousand members of militias affiliated to it , and most of them are from Iraq, trying to control the eastern Aleppo . the British newspaper ” the Observer quoted that “Qassem Soleimani had said to the late Iraqi politician Ahmed Chalabi, in 2014,” the loss of Syria is the loss of Tehran, and we will turn this mess into an opportunity “for Iran. And “Martin Thilov” Middle East affairs official in the British newspapers “The Guardian and The Observer,” sees to secure Aleppo is an important stage in the crossing , which passes the towns of shia Nabl and Zahra there, and from them to the outskirts of the city of Homs, then to the Syrian coast, the stronghold of the Alawites there, and that secured by Russia.
The British newspaper “The Observer” quoted for a specialized European source as saying that “the Iranian regime is working hard to achieve the goal”, so that it can move goods and people within that corridor, which is guarded through their own forces or other forces belonging to it . Western experts believe that the Iranian regime probably did not expect the reaction of Turkey, which did not accept Qassem Soleimani plan , the commander of the Qods Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, which means the Consolidation of the relations of Iranian regime with the” “PKK” forces and its Syrian extensions . the Iranian project needs to demographic changes which began to be implemented in central Iraq and is currently underway in the north of Syria. And Iraqi Militias and parties affiliated to Iran are working on the success of the plan and securing its stages , each according to its calculations. The corridor starts from points used by Iran to send weapons and fighters into Iraq during the past 12 years. It is the same roads used by the Iranian Guard to send fighters against American troops that were occupying Iraq, which caused 25 percent of American losses during that stage.
Hence we can understand the importance of the role of the popular crowd in the strategy, which it can secure through it the “crescent of influence” through Iraq and Syria, up to the Middle East, noting the crowd’ s participation to the battle related to old plans of the Iranian regime to create a corridor linking it to the Mediterranean Sea. Ali Khaddara , adviser to all US ambassadors to Iraq and four leaders of the central operations room during the years 2003- 2011, said that securing the corridor towards the Mediterranean would be considered a strategic victory for the Iranian regime, and that will strengthen the Iranian regime’s authority over Iraq and the Levant, and will prove its expansionist ambitions in the region, ” and this would be a burden for each Western president , and the West’s allies in the region, because it will enable the Iranian regime to its continued expansion, which is expected to go to the Arabian Gulf in the stated goal again.
In summery , that the maps drawn by the Iranian regime in the Arab world, which contrasts with the spiritual that Washington wanted to be marketed by signing a nuclear deal between the international community and the Iranian regime. The latter is working hard in the defense of its Iraqi and Syrian interests, also suggests a potential conflict of Iranian agenda with other international and regional interests may contradict with convergence that its features drawn between Moscow and Ankara.
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies