The Turkish voter was on a date with the parliamentary elections that took place on the first of November , to frustrate all of the public opinion polls biased and Associated with Turkish media circles and non-Turkish , hostile to the trends of domestic and foreign policy of the ruling Justice and Development party . Since the Turkish Prime Recep Tayyip Erdogan announced on August 25 / August of this year, for new elections, to overcome the political crisis in the country brought about by the results of the parliamentary elections which took place last June. Opinion polls were released by several research centers and the Turkish news media , daily, weekly, monthly and zonal in Turkey, where those directed polls to agree unanimously that the Justice and Development Party will be unable to form a government alone. The Justice and Development Party also disappointed the assumption of the “political” analyzes based on a sectarian basis and linked to Iran, which supposed that the results of the elections will be as the death certificate of the ruling Justice and Development party , taking the experience of the former Turkish President Torgt Ozal ,
leader of the Motherland Party, who became president of the Republic (1989 m / 1993 m) and left the party as an example. But the Turkish voter was with another opinion, as announced in this semi-firm thunderous conclusions of the victory of the Justice and Development party accounted for 49.4 percent , winning 316 parliamentary seats out of 550 seats of the Grand National Council ” in parliament,” and then being able to form the next Turkish government on its own without the need for the fragile governmental coalitions , this result means the establishment of a regional alliance of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Turkey, the United Arab Emirates and Qatar ,a traditional ally of Turkey , and may be joined by the Arab Republic of Egypt , to be in front of an Islamic alliance that it puts the first of its priority of liquidation of the differences among its countries and particularly between Turkey and Qatar on the one hand and between Egypt and the UAE on the other hand , so this alliance aims to end the Iranian influence in the Levant, and its vanity and arrogance, which reached to the level of declaration by one official of the Iranian political system to control on four Arab capitals, “Damascus, Baghdad and Sana’a and Beirut.”
The agenda of this coalition will be to rise and strongly involved in the solution of the outstanding regional issues, as it will contribute to the solution of the Syrian protracted crisis, according to the aspirations of the Syrian people to get rid of the dictator of Syria Bashar Alassad, and not according to the wishes of his allies in Russia and Iran and his allies of militias deployed in Some the Arab eastern countries in keeping him in power . It will also work towards the achievement of national reconciliation among the components of Iraqi society, especially among the most important components , Sunni and Shiite which Iran has worked to keep them apart by former Iraqi Prime Minister (2006/2014) Nuri al-Maliki. This reconciliation will lead to the integration of Iraq’s Sunnis in the Iraqi political system, so there is no recovery and the effectiveness of this political system unless all its components are melting to produce a contemporary modernist civil state which is quite different from the State of velayat-e faqih that Iran is trying to copy her experience of theocracy in Iraq. In Yemen, this alliance will accelerate through a storm of Arab alhazim to the defeat of the Houthis and the Iranian project in Yemen and its return to the pre-Huthi military coup in September / September last year, and re-activate the GCC initiative that was announced in April / May 2011, as a way to settle the Yemeni uprising that erupted against the ousted Yemeni President Ali Abdullah Saleh rule who preferred his survival in power on the account of his people , and to avenge by collaborating with rebels and Iranians for the delivery of Yemen to Iran, but that plan was turned down by Saudi Arabia and its allies by the operation of the storm of Alhazim , as it will be completely gone with the regional alliance, frustrating Iran’s attempts to impose its geo-strategically hegemony on the southern Arabian Peninsula. In Lebanon, Iran’s influence will take more time to end it, so at this stage , and it will be considerably undermined of the functional role of its ally Hezbollah there, a party that does not mind since its inception and to this day, to be its tool of sabotage in the Arab East, especially in Syria and Lebanon.
This alliance has the diplomatic, economic, and religious possibilities to end the influence of the Iranian state, being composed of the pivotal states in the Middle East, ie Turkey is an emerging regional power of a demographic heavyweight , and features of a strategic location, it contributed to a multiplicity of circuits (European, Western Atlantic, Asian mid-east , Central Asia and the Islamic Caucasus , the Black Sea, the Balkans.” The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia is related to the strategic bonds that includes the Arabian Peninsula, the Arab world, the Middle East and the Indian Ocean, and it is within twenty countries – the stronger economically in the international community, they have the papers of power through which to influence the course of events in the regional environment. Not to mention what the kingdom represents as a State of the Two Holy Mosques, and of the great symbolism in the hearts of Muslims in general and Sunni in private . The evidence of that was the position of Islamic public opinion especially among Sunnis in the world who stood with Saudi Arabia against Iranian attempts of sabotage in the last Hajj season .
As Egypt has something to offer to this alliance of diplomacy , military force and human resources and can not be underestimated if employed properly, and exceeded its internal crisis to achieve national reconciliation with political Islam . while Qatar and the UAE have the energy, both oil and gas, there is also an added value for each of these countries, all of them overlooking on more than one sea , Egypt, for example, oversees the Red Sea and the Mediterranean, and Turkey in addition to overlooking the Mediterranean sea , It also oversees the Sea of Marmara and the Aegean. The United Arab Emirates, Qatar and Saudi Arabia, overlooking the Arabian Gulf, and this potential and the resources available to each of its members thus we find our self in front of Geostrategic alliance can strongly impose its will on rivals . Accordingly, this alliance will have Western backing of both the United States and the European Union-especially the United Kingdom, which have the desire again to play a prominent role in the Middle east issues -, all the countries involved in this alliance have good relations with the first and the second ones , and this alliance will be of great benefit for them as a power in the face of Iran’s aggressive policies, and Russia in the Caucasus, Add to that , what belongs to this alliance encourages everyone to cooperate with them , on the contrary of Russian-Iranian alliance, which is suffering from the decline of its economy due to the decline in global oil prices.
But the question that arises in this context, although it has been superseded by the results of the recent elections, but it is important to view it in this context? What was the hope of Iran and its allies from the results of these elections? Iran is well aware of the difficult to drive the Justice and Development Party out of Turkey’s entire electoral scene, and then completely excluded from the political scene in Turkey, they were wishing for itself that the results of previous parliamentary elections to be repeated , this means that the Justice and Development Party will not be able to form the coming Turkish government alone, making it back to the first square and oblige it to enter a new round of the negotiations to form a coalition Government with the opposition parties represented in the Turkish parliament . What are gains of this to Iran?
It can be said with this expectation, that a change will be introduced to the Turkish foreign policy, but this change will not be radical or transformative; as in the event that the Justice and Development Party was able to form a coalition government , the largest share in the government will be for it , but at the same time will not be able to make fateful decisions specifically toward the foreign policy issues; Due to the existence of significant opposition in parliament, and the party that share it , will press on it.
The formation of the coalition government means that Turkey’s foreign policy will not be as it was under the Justice and Development Party. Republican People’s Party is not in line with the policies of the Justice and Development Party on Syria and on Egypt affairs . The Party of the Democratic peoples will not be a partner in a coalition with the ruling Justice and Development except in accordance with very high conditions which can not be accepted by the ruling party . The Nationalist Movement Party is also strongly opposed to the policy of the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, and calls him to stop the Turkish intervention in the affairs of the Middle East, especially in Syria, which, in its opinion, do not serve except the Greater Middle East project of the United States of America .
The nature and form of a change will be more clearly decided after the knowledge of the participant party with the Justice and Development Party, and who will be in charge of the bag of the Foreign Ministry. And so with regard to the opportunities for change at the level of foreign policy in a Government the Nationalist Movement Party take part in will be less than involvement of the Government of the Republican People’s Party. Because the rapprochement of the first with the intellectual premises of the Justice and Development Party.
It is likely in this context that any party which will share the Justice and Development Party within this coalition will seek to reduce the role of the president in deciding the foreign policy , it does not mean that Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will give up to intervene and give his opinion, as a stopover for this is contrary to his character and historic role .
So , the contents of the game theory in international relations will be applied to this coalition government, as there will be a regional loser and a winner , As for the loser: the Arab Gulf states, because it will disrupt the coalition of Turkey, Saudi, Qatar to overthrow of Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, and possibly Turkey may come out of this alliance, and that was not wanted by Saudi Arabia and Qatar, and this government will evaluate the Turkish , Saudi , and Qatari alliance in the face of expansion of Iranian expansionist project in the Arab East. The coalition government , despite the importance of Iraq in the Turkish foreign policy, but it will move backward on the subject of integration of the Sunnis in the political process.
The winner will be Iran and its regional allies of the State and non-State actors, because they will get rid of the privacy of the Justice and Development Party in the formulation of Turkish foreign policy that stood out clearly against the rule of Bashar al-Assad, and to criticize the internal Iraqi politics based on exclusion of the Sunnis, this exclusion, which serves Iranian policy in Iraq , any future coalition government will object to this approach due to the the good relations that combine Turkish opposition parties and Iran, and supports disproportionately Bashar al-Assad to stay in power, and the role of Iran in Iraq and the entire region.
Hence, we understand the overwhelming celebration expressed by the Iranian media, and those of the two Syrian and Iraqi regimes , and also Hezbollah in Lebanon, and the Houthis, after the announcement of the results of previous Turkish elections, as it approaches to the ceremonial of the western media when the international news Agency deliberated the news of the dissolution of the Soviet Union, where Fars News Agency of Iran which is close to the Iranian Revolutionary Guard said : that the repercussions of the Syrian curse would pursue Erdogan and neo-Ottoman, for what they had done of massacres against the Syrian people and the peoples of the region as well as their allies in Saudi Arabia and Qatar” It also said “the Turkish people stood firm against the aspirations of Ottoman Erdogan , and grave it forever. ” The means of the Syrian media celebrated of what it was called “blow to Erdogan’s expansionist dreams” and claimed that the result reflects the refusal of the Turkish people for “the tyranny of the Sultan.” As well as of the Iraqi, Lebanese, Yemeni newspapers funded by Iran.
Therefore, the restriction of Turkish foreign policy by constituting a coalition government and undermine the role of the Justice and Development Party in Turkey will pour in the short and medium term for the benefit of Iran politically, economically and militarily that Iran will take its breath with this important variable. And the loss of the Arab side, particularly in the Persian Gulf because it is difficult to make partnership or the establishment of any functional alliance to confront Iran with a coalition government in Turkey. Thus, the Arab Gulf states may be in front of requirements of the second exposure after the first geo-strategic exposure represented by the occupation of Iraq and joining the Iranian axis, and the second with the formation of a weak coalition government in Turkey which will be busy with its Interior issues.
But Turkish voters frustrated this perception, and surprised everyone who was willing to surprise them such as Iran and its allies but not surprised those who read carefully the political scene in Turkey, especially after the parliamentary elections that took place last June, that the Turkish voter refused to be manipulated of his destiny by the fragile political parties and regional states . Therefore we say that the foreign policy of Turkey in accordance with the results of the semi- confirmed elections and according to political harmony that exists between the presidency and the prime minister and the Grand National Council, “parliament”, is to encourage the establishment of a regional coalition to root out Iranian influence in the Levant, so the satisfaction and joy that have appeared in the media in some Arab Gulf States of the results of those elections, are only a prelude to the formation of this alliance.
Muammar Faisal Kholi
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies