In the twenty-ninth of December of the last year, announced in the Turkish capital, “Ankara” Turkish- Russian agreement is aimed at a cease-fire in Syria, to be implemented on the same day and with Turkish and Russian guarantees . Following the entry into force of the agreement, the Turkish Foreign Minister Mawlood Jaweesh Davutoglu made a statement, who said that “all foreign fighters, including elements of Hezbollah to leave Syria.” For its part, Tehran explicitly declared that the Hezbollah militia would not get out of Syria, to be considered the first official position which is clear on this issue since the recent agreement on a cease-fire under the auspices of Russia and Turkey.
The Iranian announcement came on the lips of Ali Akbar Velayati, Senior Advisor of the Iranian Murshed Ali Khamenei, who said that despite the cease-fire agreement in Syria, the Hezbollah will not come out of this country. Considering the talk about understanding of the «Hezbollah» exit from Syria « untrue and propaganda released by the enemy». Hezbollah has been keen in recent times to describe the battle of Aleppo as the final battle that the victory of it will be an Introduction to declare the final and complete victory for its axis. Hezbollah draw for itself a map of its influence in the region and in Lebanon comes from this perception, but his calculations did not match with the calculations of the major countries involved in the Syrian war noting Russia has worked after the fall of the city of Aleppo on the establishment of a bilateral agreement between it and Turkey that Hezbollah’s main allies, ie Iranian and Syrian regime were not among its participants.
Opinions of the observers were numerous on the statements of Welayati between the restrictions of Syrian regime of the permanent existence of Iran that deprive him of any margin of maneuver for consistency with Moscow options in the context of any potential settlement. And the removal of fears that dominated the Shiite militias affiliated to the Iranian regime in Syria, and the pursuit of the Iranian regime to strengthen its papers within any future settlement and to remind the parties concerned with concreteness of papers owned by him inside Syria. The presence of Hezbollah in Syria is the tip of the iceberg of a comprehensive strategy to be adopted in the approach of the Russian workshop to produce a settlement in negotiations of Ostanh . and in this context two questions could be raised about the Iranian regime, namely: Is it part of the solution in Syria or part of the problem? And Why the Iranian regime rejects strongly the exit of Shiite militias, especially the Lebanese Hezbollah from Syria?
United Nations, in the era of the former Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, insisted on the need to insert it as a direct party in the Syrian crisis as part of the solution, putting aside all reservations on this determination and ignoring the clarity of the Iranian project in Syria and the Levant. So did the United States and European countries willfully , when it agreed to the participation of the Iranian regime in response to the insistence of the Russian diplomacy in the negotiations of resolving the Syrian crisis but that US President Barack Obama’s administration has taken an important decision that allows the Iranian regime and the forces «Revolutionary Guards» of the incursion militarily in Syria, and it gave legal cover through the abolition of the Security Council resolutions that prevented the Iranian regime from these military roles, all for the nuclear agreement with Iran .
Hence, the Administration of Obama was the hidden party in the Syrian war arena for the benefit of the remaining of the regime of Syrian president Basher al-Assad , but the task of the revolutionary guard and its militias was and still clear which is to stay al-Assad in power .
Why did the United States, Europe, Russia and China decide to overlook about the territorial ambitions of the Iranian regime that the Iranian leadership was declaring it clearly and not hiding it? The answer goes beyond the claim that the nuclear deal was needed with a definite priority, everyone was fully aware of what geographic Iranian ambitions . Therefore, the political confrontation on the withdrawal of the Iranian regime forces from Syria is known . Either this is just a tactical differences, or that it would be classed part of the problem after it was referred to by the United Nations and all of these countries as a core part of the solution.
Currently, the Iranian regime was absent from the Aleppo agreement which brought the opposition out of the city, also was absent from the Ankara Agreement, which resulted in a cease-fire; the two agreements were the result of a bilateral effort of Russia and Turkey . However, the Russians and the Turks were keen to join the Iranian regime to the settlement to neutralize its ability to disruption and in recognition of his influence in the Syrian regime, so calling it to trilateral meeting in Moscow, which was resulted to the “Moscow Declaration”. But the Iranian regime is showing reservations on the Russian – Turkish moves, also he expressed its dismay at the Moscow’s ignorance about his request to be considered some of the Syrian opposition groups participated in the Ankara talks “terrorist” (Ahrar al-Sham and the Army of Islam in particular) . the Revolutionary Guards takes specifically rigid and suspicious positions about Moscow and Ankara’s efforts to end the conflict, and the Iranian circles fear from the presence of undeclared Russian – Turkish understandings towards the situation in Syria.
The Iranian Revolutionary Guard attempted “by militia of Hezbollah and the Iraqi nujaba” to impede Aleppo agreement, for its rejection to the exit of the opposition out of the city safely, and also the Revolutionary Guards is trying across the Hezbollah to impede the cease-fire agrement through the continued targeting of villages and towns of the Valley of the Barada and Eastern Ghouta in the countryside of the capital Damascus, ignoring the Ankara agreement. The Iranian regime has expansionist project, executive tools in Syria, Lebanon’s Hezbollah, Iran wants the annexation of Syria, it also included Lebanon and Iraq through direct military and political influence, and works in Syria seriously to bring about demographic change in some of the areas Iran wants to make them loyal to it , especially in Damascus to achieve the security belt linked to southern Lebanon. . Iranian regime has a religious sectarian doctrine and wants to spread it, which is quick to set up religious rituals in the major Sunni mosques in Syria encouraging for Shiism, and this is what makes the political struggle takes a sectarian turn, which is the secret of the emergence of counter-extremism.
Through Hezbollah, the Iranian regime wants to create chaos in Syria and put an end to state institutions and the fragmentation of the Syrian army, as happened to the Iraqi army, because chaos and collapse are making available for him to float on national sovereignty, as it did in Lebanon through the party, and it began to form militias in Syria instead of the regular Army . It is through the Lebanese Hezbollah also the Iranian regime wants to divide Syria, it is the creator of the idea of « useful Syria», to make the useless Syria a place of conflict with the international coalition against terrorism , where attempt to concentrate the Sunnis in the target area as it includes terrorists , and this is what happens in Idlib now where pulling out the Sunnis from their homes and lands in Aleppo and Damascus and are regrouped in camps in Idlib, we do not rule out that a lot of those will be exposed to the coming extermination under the pretext of the fight against (Fatah al-Sham) .the Iranian regime and the Syrian regime don’t fear from the influence of Daesh noting that the evidences refer to the coordination and understanding since to hand over al-Riqa and then Mosul and Tadmer to Daesh without trouble .
And the Iranian regime has been able through the Lebanese Hezbollah and through the past years of the displacement of more than ten million people of the Sunnis, especially for those who have chosen far Migration, and the Syrian regime expressed for this satisfaction when he spoke about what happened from the demographic balance (which means a huge decline for the presence of the majority of population in Syria in the hope of becoming a minority), the system recognizes that the prospects for the return of migrants become less after five years on immigration, and won’t be important for the survival of millions of displaced people in tents in Jordan, Lebanon and southern Turkey, the Palestinians remained in tents for decades. So is the presence of Hezbollah in Syria, a vital issue, not cosmetic. Through Hezbollah, the Iranian regime to continue to seek what initiated the sort of demographic terms and fencing areas of its influence with the sectarian forces to constitute a control base in Syria, this task has not yet been completed , and needs more military conflict and clearing certain areas within the project inside Syria.hence, the Iranian regime will be able through this party to impede this agreement whenever it is suitable.
Based on its aggressive practices insisting on it , the Iranian regime does not constitute a positive part in resolving the conflict in Syria as much as what constitutes an essential part of the dilemma of the solution in it, because it has an ideological expansionist project aims to spread it in Syria and the Levant, noting that his insistence on the continued existence of Hezbollah, which means the continuation of the occupation of Iran to Syria. To foil the endeavor of Iranian regime to damage the solution in Syria , it is necessary to take the paper of war against terrorism out of his hand, and the international community to undertake to wage it , not manipulated by the mullahs’ regime, and use them to blow up the countries of the Arab region and destroy it It is also imperative to dissolve the terrorist correlations between the Iranian regime and Syria, which are coordinated at the highest levels of their political and military commands , that played a direct role in the production of the Arab / regional current disastrous situation, and used their armies and multinational mercenaries who are killing the people of the Orient motivated by confessional / sectarian motives , and to displace a number of families from their daughters and sons and to reside the Iranians in their villages and towns, and dwell in their homes. This link, which goes beyond politics to the doctrine field, it becomes impossible for the success of any effort aimed to get the Iranian regime out of Syria, or stop their war against Syria, and joining the political solution that meets the demands of the Syrians, and spread calm throughout the region, and stop their regular massacres in it where it destroyed the peoples of Iraq and Syria, according to the planning (and leadership) of the mullahs: they recruited killers and armed and financing them .
From the above it can be said that if Russia was not able to adjust the behavior of the Revolutionary Guards and militias across the borders such as the party of Hezbollah, the cease-fire would be exposed to collapse inevitably. While the Revolutionary Guards show hard line towards the Syrian crisis, and is pushing for a military solution, the realists in Tehran see, headed by President Hassan Rowhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, should not collide with the efforts of Moscow to resolve the Syrian crisis, especially with the increase in Iran’s need for Russia with the approach of the receipt of the administration of Donald Trump the rule in Washington and expectations to increase pressures on Iran. It seems that the approach of Trump to receive the rule is the tools of pressure exerted by Russia on the Iranian regime.
Unit Iranian Studies
Translated by : Mudhaffar Kusairi
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies