Iranian regime … an essential part of the dilemma of solution in the Syrian conflict

Iranian regime … an essential part of the dilemma of solution in the Syrian conflict

- in Releases
Comments Off on Iranian regime … an essential part of the dilemma of solution in the Syrian conflict

In the twenty-ninth of December of the last year, announced in the Turkish capital, “Ankara”  Turkish- Russian  agreement is aimed at a cease-fire in Syria, to be  implemented    on the same day and with Turkish and Russian guarantees . Following the entry into force of the agreement, the Turkish Foreign Minister Mawlood Jaweesh Davutoglu   made  a statement, who said that “all foreign fighters, including elements of Hezbollah to leave Syria.” For its part, Tehran explicitly declared that the Hezbollah militia would not get out of Syria,  to be considered  the first official position  which is clear on this issue since the recent agreement on a cease-fire under the auspices of Russia and Turkey.

The Iranian announcement came on the lips of Ali Akbar Velayati, Senior Advisor of the Iranian Murshed Ali Khamenei, who said that despite the cease-fire agreement in Syria, the Hezbollah will not come out of this country. Considering the talk about understanding   of  the «Hezbollah» exit from Syria « untrue and propaganda released  by the enemy». Hezbollah has been keen in recent times to describe the battle of Aleppo as the final battle that  the victory of it will be  an Introduction to declare  the final and complete victory  for its  axis. Hezbollah  draw  for itself a map of its influence   in the region and in Lebanon  comes from  this perception, but his calculations did not match with  the  calculations of the major countries involved in the Syrian war  noting  Russia has worked after the fall of the city of Aleppo on the establishment of a bilateral agreement between it and  Turkey  that  Hezbollah’s main allies, ie Iranian and Syrian regime were not among  its participants.

Opinions  of the observers were numerous  on the statements of Welayati  between the restrictions of  Syrian regime  of  the permanent  existence of  Iran that   deprive him of any margin of maneuver for consistency with Moscow options in the context of any potential settlement. And  the removal of  fears that dominated the Shiite militias affiliated to  the Iranian regime in Syria,  and the pursuit of the Iranian regime to strengthen  its papers within any future settlement and to remind the parties concerned  with concreteness  of papers  owned by him  inside Syria. The presence of Hezbollah in Syria is the tip of the iceberg of a comprehensive strategy to be adopted in the  approach  of the Russian workshop to produce a settlement in negotiations of  Ostanh .  and  in this context  two questions  could be raised  about the Iranian regime, namely: Is it part of the solution in Syria or part of the problem?  And Why the Iranian regime  rejects  strongly  the exit of  Shiite militias, especially the Lebanese Hezbollah from Syria?

United Nations, in the era of the former Secretary-General Ban Ki-moon, insisted on the need to insert it as  a direct party in the Syrian crisis as part of the solution,  putting  aside all reservations on this determination and ignoring the clarity of the Iranian project  in  Syria and the Levant. So did the United States and European countries willfully , when it agreed to the participation of the Iranian  regime in response to the insistence of the Russian diplomacy in the negotiations of  resolving  the Syrian crisis  but that US President Barack Obama’s administration has taken an important decision that allows the Iranian regime and the forces «Revolutionary Guards» of the  incursion militarily in Syria, and it gave legal cover through the abolition of the Security Council resolutions that prevented the Iranian regime from these military roles, all for the nuclear agreement with Iran .

Hence, the  Administration of Obama was the hidden party in the Syrian war arena for the benefit  of the  remaining of  the regime of  Syrian president   Basher al-Assad , but the task of the revolutionary guard and its militias was and still clear  which is to stay al-Assad in power .

Why did  the United States, Europe, Russia and China decide to overlook about the territorial ambitions of the Iranian regime  that the Iranian leadership  was declaring it clearly and not hiding it? The answer goes beyond the claim that the nuclear deal was needed with a definite priority, everyone was fully aware of what geographic Iranian ambitions . Therefore, the political confrontation on the withdrawal of the Iranian regime forces from Syria  is known . Either this is just a tactical differences, or that it would be classed part of the problem  after it  was referred to  by  the United Nations and all of these countries as a core part of the solution.

Currently, the Iranian regime was absent from the  Aleppo agreement which brought  the opposition  out of the city, also  was absent from the   Ankara Agreement, which resulted in a cease-fire;  the two agreements were  the result of a bilateral effort of  Russia and   Turkey  .  However, the Russians and the Turks were keen to join the Iranian regime to the settlement to neutralize its ability to disruption and in recognition of his influence in the Syrian regime, so   calling it  to trilateral meeting in Moscow, which was resulted to   the “Moscow Declaration”. But the Iranian regime is showing reservations on the Russian – Turkish moves, also he expressed its dismay at the Moscow’s ignorance about  his request to be considered some of the Syrian opposition groups  participated in the Ankara talks “terrorist” (Ahrar al-Sham and the Army of Islam in particular)   . the Revolutionary Guards takes specifically rigid  and suspicious  positions  about Moscow  and Ankara’s efforts to end the conflict, and  the Iranian circles fear from   the presence of  undeclared  Russian – Turkish understandings   towards the situation in Syria.

The Iranian Revolutionary Guard  attempted “by militia  of Hezbollah and the Iraqi nujaba”  to impede  Aleppo agreement, for its rejection  to the exit of  the opposition out  of the city safely, and  also the Revolutionary Guards is trying across the Hezbollah to impede  the cease-fire agrement through the continued targeting of villages and towns of the Valley of the Barada and Eastern Ghouta in the countryside of  the capital Damascus, ignoring the Ankara agreement. The Iranian regime has expansionist project, executive tools in Syria, Lebanon’s Hezbollah,  Iran  wants the  annexation of Syria, it also included Lebanon and Iraq through direct military and political influence, and works in Syria seriously to bring about demographic change in some of the areas Iran  wants to make them loyal to it , especially in Damascus to  achieve  the   security belt      linked  to    southern Lebanon.    . Iranian regime  has a religious sectarian doctrine and   wants to spread it, which is quick to set up religious rituals in the major Sunni mosques in Syria  encouraging for  Shiism, and this is what makes the political struggle takes a sectarian turn, which is the secret of the emergence of counter-extremism.

Through Hezbollah, the Iranian regime wants  to create chaos in Syria and put an end to state institutions and the fragmentation of the Syrian army, as happened to the Iraqi army, because chaos and collapse are making available   for him to float on national sovereignty, as it did in Lebanon through the party,  and it began to form militias in Syria instead of the regular Army . It is through the Lebanese Hezbollah also the Iranian regime wants  to divide Syria, it is the  creator  of the  idea of ​​« useful Syria», to make  the useless  Syria  a place of conflict with the international coalition against terrorism , where  attempt to concentrate  the Sunnis in the target area as it includes terrorists , and this is what happens in Idlib now where pulling out the Sunnis from their homes and lands in Aleppo and Damascus and are regrouped in camps in Idlib, we do not rule out that a lot of those will be exposed to the  coming extermination  under the pretext of the fight against (Fatah al-Sham) .the Iranian regime and the Syrian regime don’t fear from the influence of Daesh noting that the evidences refer  to the coordination  and understanding  since to hand over al-Riqa and then Mosul and Tadmer  to Daesh  without trouble .

And  the Iranian regime   has been able through the Lebanese Hezbollah and through the past years of the displacement of more than ten million people of the Sunnis, especially for those who have chosen far Migration, and  the Syrian regime  expressed for this satisfaction when he spoke about what happened from the demographic balance (which means a  huge decline for the presence of the majority of  population in Syria in the hope of becoming a minority), the system recognizes that the prospects for the return of migrants become less after five years on immigration, and  won’t be important for the survival of millions of displaced people in tents in Jordan, Lebanon and southern Turkey, the Palestinians remained in tents for decades.  So is the presence of Hezbollah in Syria, a vital issue, not cosmetic. Through Hezbollah, the Iranian regime to continue to seek what initiated the sort of demographic terms and fencing areas of its influence with the sectarian forces to constitute a control base in Syria, this task has not yet been completed , and needs more military conflict and clearing certain areas within the project inside Syria.hence, the Iranian regime will be able through this party to  impede this agreement whenever it is suitable.

Based on its aggressive  practices  insisting  on it , the Iranian regime does not constitute a positive part in resolving the conflict in Syria as much as what constitutes an essential part of the dilemma of the solution in it, because it has an ideological  expansionist  project aims to  spread it  in Syria and the Levant, noting that his insistence  on the continued existence of Hezbollah, which means the continuation of the occupation of Iran to Syria. To  foil the endeavor of  Iranian regime  to damage  the solution in Syria , it is necessary to take the  paper of  war against terrorism out of his hand, and  the international community to undertake  to wage it , not manipulated by the mullahs’ regime, and use them to blow up the countries of the Arab region and destroy it  It is also imperative to  dissolve the terrorist correlations between the Iranian regime and Syria, which are coordinated at the highest levels of their  political and military  commands , that  played a direct role in the production of the Arab / regional current disastrous situation, and used their armies and  multinational mercenaries who are killing the people of the Orient motivated  by confessional / sectarian motives , and  to  displace a number of  families  from  their  daughters and sons and  to reside   the Iranians   in  their villages and towns, and dwell in their homes. This link, which goes beyond politics to the doctrine field, it becomes impossible for the  success of any effort aimed to get   the Iranian regime out of   Syria, or stop their war against Syria, and joining the political solution that meets the demands of the Syrians, and spread calm throughout the region, and stop  their  regular  massacres  in it where  it destroyed the peoples of  Iraq and  Syria, according to  the planning (and leadership) of the mullahs:   they recruited killers and armed  and  financing them .

From the above it can be said that if  Russia was not able to adjust the behavior of the Revolutionary Guards and militias  across the borders  such as  the party of  Hezbollah, the cease-fire would  be  exposed  to collapse inevitably. While the Revolutionary Guards show hard line towards the Syrian crisis, and is pushing for a military solution,  the realists in Tehran see, headed by President Hassan Rowhani and Foreign Minister Javad Zarif, should not collide with the  efforts  of  Moscow to resolve the Syrian crisis, especially with the increase in Iran’s need for Russia with the approach of the receipt of the administration of  Donald  Trump  the rule in Washington and expectations to increase pressures on Iran. It seems that the approach of  Trump  to receive  the rule  is the  tools of pressure exerted by  Russia on the Iranian regime.

Unit Iranian Studies                                                                                                                 

Translated by : Mudhaffar Kusairi

Rawabet Center for  Research and Strategic Studies