The retreat policy pursued by former US President Barack Obama’s administration has encouraged the consolidation of the Iranian regime’s influence in Iraq, which represents a significant weight center for him . This influence has also contributed in strengthening or the steadfastness of his ally, the Syrian regime ,and it seems that such a policy has been turned down with administration of US President Donald Trump , where he did not hesitate to express about his displeasure of the Iranian regime’s hegemony over Iraq, saying it benefited from the great efforts made by his country and a lot of money paid without avail. This is what was expressed after he came to the White House in the last month of January , when he said: “The country committed a grave error when it entered Iraq and then handed him over to Iran” and expressed strong dissatisfaction of the previous administration’s policy of his country towards Iraq, which he said “US left Iraq alone “; and that this” created a vacuum that was exploited by the Iranians. ” He continued, “we should not leave Iraq, we have formed a great vacuum there, filled by Iran and Daesh.”
It seems that the battle for Mosul is the main entrance to the administration of US President Donald Trump in order to encircle the Iranian influence in Iraq and besiege it in other Arab countries, and in an expression of the importance of the Battle of Mosul for the future situations in Iraq , US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said, “The Washington seeks to bring back Iraq to its natural status . ”
In parallel with the involvement of his administration more in the war on organization Daesh in Iraq, which reached a decisive phase in the city of Mosul, Nineveh province, Iraq’s northern center, it seemed that Trump’s Administration has engaged in a political and diplomatic “war” parallel to besiege Iran’s influence through the request from Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi to the disengagement of the Baghdad government and the dependency in its decision on Tehran.
The United States wants from its involvement more in the war on organization Daesh in Iraq to grab the key role in resolving it due to the importance of this in the development of the arrangements of the next stage , including re-distribution of the map of influence in the country, which is to regain control over the future of Iraq.
So Followers of the Iraq war believes that the delay in completing the liberation of the city of Mosul from Daesh has nothing to do with the capabilities of the organization to withstand; as its key strengths is pulled inside Syria and also those who know the nature of the plans that followed by Daesh in the battles stress that these plans rely on maneuver through hit-and-run not devote to stay in the same place for more than one battle. That’s why they assert that the slow progress in resolving the battle due to the US military seeks to end the battle in two directions: First, the completion of the issue of the presence of Daesh on Iraqi territory entirely, so no longer has the ability to threaten and carry out a new round, as happened previously in western Iraq. And secondly, to ensure that the factions of Popular Crowd Forces of the Iranian regime not to benefit from the control on the very important Sunni areas in the province of Nineveh because they are located on the road towards Syria that allows him to achieve communication between areas of influence in the three neighboring Arab countries which they include all of Iraq, Syria and Lebanon.
The competition between Washington and Tehran to participate in the final phase of the decisive battle has become obvious in the remarks of a US military commander where he has decreased of the role of Iran in the war Daesh in Mosul. When the spokesman of the international coalition to fight Daesh, air Colonel John Dorian, in a press briefing held in Iraq, through a private teleconference with reporters in Washington on Wednesday, current February 22 described the Iranian presence in the fight Daesh in Iraq as “weak”, stressing to the presence of Iranian-backed militias in the western side of the city of Mosul participating in combat. But Dorian naming of those forces by the militias and say that it is backed by Iran means that the United States does not recognize it as a legitimate force that is subject to the Iraqi government.
He added: “We have not seen large numbers of crews of the Iranian army, despite the presence of some groups operating west of the city of Mosul, who have links with Iran,” a reference to the popular crowd forces. He pointed out that “his country’s position on this issue is that each entity fighting Daesh in Iraq, it must do so in cooperation with the consent of the Government of Iraq.” Dorian did not exclude the possibility of sending more American troops to Iraq, saying “the commander of the international coalition forces, Gen. Joseph Votal expected the support of the current Administration to him in case he needs more reinforcements of fighters and equipment.”
The growing involvement of the United States in the battle of Mosul was not without results where it has re-agitated it after the stalemate that continues for weeks and continued after the completion of the restoration of the left part of the city located to the east of the Tigris River. Where Iraqi forces announced on the current February 23 about its control of the Mosul airport, which is an important milestone process in the restoration of the western part of the city .
With this American escalation against the Iranian regime which took advantage of the collapse of Iraq and the abandonment of former US President Barack Obama’s administration for its duties, and the acceptance of the swap of Iranian nuclear and deport it to the years to come, in exchange of the spreading sectarian disastrous epidemic in the three countries are Iraq, Syria, Yemen and other countries as well, but within the limits of varying injuries which has made its own terrorism, and counter terrorism that lead to the destruction of peoples and weaken them in the area that the Iranian regime believes it has owned the reins of control to achieve its security and its objectives, and the delivery of its exports by the bargaining with the world , once by threats and another time to go around it , or raise slogans and most recently and the first is the question of Palestine.
The Iranian regime has just discovered the results of losing the cover provided by the Obama administration to him and enabled him to pass the foreign interventions and exploitation of terrorist groups, and felt that the renewal of the sanctions makes it lifted an elusive goal without concessions as long rejected it . And between the escalation occurred through the maneuvers of «Revolutionary Guards» and the exit of President Hassan Rouhani in the first Gulf visit that he has promised to pay it during his election campaign, the Iranian regime seems to be confusing and looks more confused than Challenger that its Syrian position is swing to the extent that it has requested the Russian guarantees of what he considers the interests of him and his militia, and its Iraqi position is cautious despite the strength of « its crowd» noting that the popular boiling remains worrying, and the position of its «Hotheiha» in Yemen is going from bad to worse.
Clearly, the obvious indicator in the appointment of Herbert McMaster as an adviser to US national security, one of the leaders who tried the American errors in Iraq, particularly with regard to Iranian intervention and has a close relationship with the city of Tal Afar by virtue of military duties at the time. Secretary of Defense James Mattis has an experience in Iraq and also during his visit to Baghdad said I have returned to you but with a new job. The other is John Kelly, Secretary of Homeland Security; that means Trump has surrounded himself with old veterans who served in Iraq, in the sense that they are generals and their policies are the and military options and rigor; the 45 president of the United States is keen to carry out his campaign promises, especially in Iraq and Iran in an expeditious manner that pulls his supporters around him, and confuse his enemies and their project plans, and restore (according to his convictions) international prestige for his country, which lost much of its international standing through more than two decades; because of the policies of former presidents.
Bottom line, certainly the call for anti-Iranian role is right which shakes the stability of the region and supporting terrorist, sectarian militia , but worthwhile and useful not be at the way of Russia against the United States of America and its call to the «world after the West»; it just as Russia is not qualified to talk about the global model possess ways to attractive others, as well as China, it should not fall into the trap of satisfaction of the strict ways of Trump towards the Iranian regime as a way to love him and turning a blind eye to what he may bring of a disastrous thing to the future of the world … if he has not changed.
The unity of the Iraqi Studies
Translated by: Mudhaffar al-Kusairi
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies