The border conflict: between the Iranian and American influence

The border conflict: between the Iranian and American influence

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The  Battle of the border  in  the  ongoing  war on the organization Daesh in Syria and Iraq , has a strategic dimension beyond the two countries in connection with a conflict of influence waged by regional and international powers through local arms entrusted with the task to secure vital long-term interests of those conflicting forces threatening the situation on the border among Iraq and Jordan and Syria of a direct confrontation between the US and Syrian forces, and possibly other actors as well. And the southern border of Syria from Tanf to Sinjar in Iraq are turned to become a hotbed of tension where multiple partners are competing in the war on behalf of their regional sponsors. And the ambitions of Iran have been increased recently trying to open the road from the Iraqi border at Tanf crossing to reach Damascus and Beirut. Therefore, Iran is seeking to achieve a contact between the militias fighting in Iraq and militias fighting in Syria alongside the Assad regime forces within the planned target in which to strengthen the arc of Iranian influence from Tehran to Beirut via securing a land corridor linking Iran to Lebanon through Iraq and Syria, the main countries where the militias and arms belonging to Iran are concentrated that gives it an influence in the region and ensures a continued penetration of it so as to ensure the continuation of the chaos that Iran needs to meet the challenges of home and achieve a presence abroad so the attention are currently focused on the areas adjacent to the Syrian-Iraqi border, amid of questions who will prevail to impose control on it ; the United States and its allies on the ground or Iran and its allies?

On 28th of the last May, the popular crowd forces announced its arrival to the border area with Syria at the level of the village of Um Jeris located within the district of Sinjar. The arrival at the border is a significant development in the course of the war against Daesh which eased its control over areas of Iraq in a number of isolated pockets, including a small area of the western side of the city of Mosul, where the Iraqi forces tightening the noose on it day after day, while the restoration of border areas cut on its fighters ways to of communications and Logistics between its strongholds and places of control on both sides of the Iraqi-Syrian border. Shiite crowd described its advance in a statement on its website to the border with Syria as a “miracle in Ramadan.” For its part the United States feared that the popular crowd forces may take benefit from the military vacuum area that arise on both sides of the border between Iraq and Syria, particularly with the engagement of more than a military party in Syria to the liberalization processes of al-Raqqa , the most important strongholds of the organization Daesh in Syria. US aircrafts targeted the Syrian regime’s military convoys and its allies of the Shiite militias at the military Tanf base at the Iraqi-Syrian-Jordanian border triangle in order to secure the border in view of what is represented by the arrival of Iranian militias of the threat to troops of opposition stationed in the base along with a US elite (Nukhba) of officers and military advisers. According to military experts, the strike was only a limited work intended through it to send a direct messages to local and regional actors showing the importance of the border areas to the US strategic thinking, which extends to the post-organization Daesh in Syria and Iraq, and the process of arrangement of influence within them, and demonstrated the seriousness of Washington to prevent any proxy forces acting in the interest of Iran to control the border areas and points of communication between the countries of the region. Munzer Akbik , a spokesman for the al-Ghad al-Suri movement sees that there are signs on several levels about the second US strike explaining the impact of the strike saying “it is a message to the system that it is not allowed to return to areas that will be liberated from Daesh, but there is a US plan to organize a ‘rule’ consists of local boards in those areas.” He adds that there is a second message “to Iran that logistics geostrategic line, which Iran aspires to it from Tehran to Beirut through Baghdad and Damascus is merely chimerical dreams, and will not allow Iran to build its empire in the Middle East.” The third message is to the allies of Washington, the Syrian opposition battalions fighting Daesh, that it will protect their backs in the face of Assad’s regime and its allies as they move against Daesh.” The final message “is To Whom It May Concern, including Russia, that the areas liberated from Daesh in eastern Syria are an American influence and Russia should be limited only to western Syria as a sphere of its influence.”

In the context of this furious conflict to extend the control over the Iraqi-Syrian border, all the military forces involved in the fighting on Syrian territory, focusing its efforts to impose its presence in the east of the country in an attempt to control the land that was restored from Daesh and at the same time ensuring the borders with Iraq, which is for Iran and its allies a land corridor. It seems that the control of the territory in Syria like a competition between Iran and the United States mainly. Each of them has brought about its own axis, through the US presence extends from north to south, on the one hand, and an Iranian concentration from the east to the west of the other hand. International reports reveal a race between the Iraqi forces, pro-Western and those supporting Iran to control the roads in the areas where they are to be liberated from the organization Daesh in western Iraq. For its part, the Iraqi government of Iraqi Prime Minister awarded an American contracting company a contract to rebuild the highway between Baghdad and the Jordanian border line. on the other side, Iran’s allies in Iraq worked to crack its own roads in the direction of the border in the north and are working to open the road to Damascus through the areas controlled by it from the Iranian border near the city of Baquba in the east in the direction of the border with Syria through the crossing um Jeris. The Times says that the international conflict has been intensified on Iran’s plans to control the way to secure for Tehran to cross towards the Mediterranean Sea through Iraq, Syria and the areas controlled by Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran’s interest lies in the promotion of road controlled by it on the account of those planned by the Americans. The emergence of Qasim Sulaimani commander of the Qods Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard forces is an indication of the priorities of Iran in Syria and Iraq.

Knowing the importance of these priorities by tracking the movements of the Iranian military commander. In September 2016, Qassem Sulaimani appeared in the south of Aleppo before forces loyal to the regime of Bashar al-Assad to begin their latest offensive, which led to the application of the siege on the city and regain control of it. And seven months later, he was seen in the province of Hama, northern Syria, with pro-militia backed by Iran, it was preparing to face a fierce battle with the opposition factions on the outskirts of the regional center there. On 12th of the last June, Soleimani has visited Afghan militia units led by Iran on the border between Syria and Iraq, expressing his thanks and gratitude to them for the recent victories they have achieved in the region. At this time, his presence gave an indirect reference to the forces to continue their race towards the Iraqi border. The images of the Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, published, sent a number of focused messages «To Whom It May Concern», especially the Americans, Arab and regional powers, first and foremost, of course, the main adversary of Iran, Saudi Arabia. The emergence of Soleimani is the beginning of a symbolic military triumph of Iran posed by the arrival of its forces and organizations affiliated of it to the Syrian – Iraqi border in parallel with the great ascent of its allies of the Iraqi militias «popular crowd» coming closer to the declaration of the seizure of the city of Mosul, and some of which also exceeded the Syrian Iraqi border, prompting a warning from Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi, demanding it to stop it.

Soleimani chose for his movement the escort of the organization «Fatimides» ,Afghan Shiites , and it is also another symbolic announcement of the expansion of the «empire» of Iran, starting from the areas of influence inside Afghanistan exhausted by conflicts, and using them in its wars of an immense human reservoir that includes hundreds of thousands of Afghan refugees, through Iraq, Syria marginalized and suffered by bombing, death, arrests and mass displacement, leading to Lebanon, where its strong ally «Hezbollah» imposing its military dominance on the street and casts the big shadow on the institutions of the presidency and the parliament and the government.

Various players have been rushing to secure their spot in former Islamic State strongholds that will be strategically important to the next phase of the war

This concern reflects the broader regional contest that the war has become , with the Syrian regime and its allies racing to establish an east-west “Shiite axes” from Iran to Lebanon and the US seemingly looking to cement a north –south “Sunni axis ” from the Gulf states and Jordan to Turkey. This situation in Syria’s central and southern desert (the Badia) will play an important role in shaping these dynamics according to a study of Fabrice Balanche (Growing Risk of International confrontation in the Syrian Desert). The observers warn that while the organization Daesh forces are going to be crushed in its last strongholds in Mosul and Raqqa, agents of Tehran are rushing to establish a land corridor between Iran, Iraq, Syria and Hezbollah in Lebanon, which threatens of a strategic geographical exceptional transformation. And it is possible that this shift puts about twenty million Sunni Arabs under the de facto Shiite tutelage in Syria and Iraq, which may result in a new current Sunni extremist organization to replace Daesh. So the view of observers that the administration of Trump is working to undermine Iranian ambitions in the region and the project embodied by the Shiite crescent and even Shiite Badr (as stated by a Shiite factions). And the ambitions of Iran have been increased by recently trying to open the road from the Iraqi border at Tanf crossing to reach Damascus and Beirut. And they added that the international coalition led by Washington does not accept these ambitions and works to undermine it. As demonstrated by the recent strike made by the coalition aircraft to a military convoy of Iraqi Shiite militias. Recently other convoys tried to repeat this act but alliance was a lookout where the coalition warned it by leaflets thrown from the aircraft. “And targeting also on the current June 18 a Syrian fighter plane Su–22 in southern Reef of Raqqa after hitting opposition forces near the city. As a result, Russia announced the next day the suspension of “air communication channel” between it and US forces and Russia has threatened to target the US coalition aircrafts in the airspace west of the Euphrates River.

In light of the above, the features of the outbreak of confrontation between US forces and allies of Iran seem realistic according to observers who interpret Washington’s position of being a too late move to address the military arms of Iran after it was earlier a strategic paper in the face of Daesh inside Iraq as a result of the insistence of the Government of Abadi to give this popular crowd political cover to legitimize its existence. And the premise of a military clash between Iran’s allies and US forces raises several possibilities, where some experts believe that Iran’s allies would suffer significant losses due to the lack of air cover and will have to pull back away from the border line, while others believe that these forces are likely to stick to their positions fiercely, even though it fails to progress inside Syria. Because Iran is planning further than Syria as it is seeking through these military militias and political parties carrying the sectarian banners and planted in Lebanon, Syria, Iraq and Yemen to hit Arab countries. Iran wants to establish a Persian empire by using sleeper cells in Syria as used in Iraq and in Yemen, Iran wants to open up corridors linking these countries by land to their lands for easy moving. So the conflict of the control over the Iraqi-Syrian border serves as a confusing chess game between a number of actors, and the Iranian-backed militias are advancing in the direction of Iraq from the West, and the same Iranian leadership moves Iraqi militias in their direction from the east. Since the days when the two forces have been met at a point in the map located between the Tanaf and Deir al-Zour, which represents a pivotal moment in the Syrian war and the war against Daesh, and achievement which is at least partial to Iran’s plans to secure an arc of influence. There is a new and fierce battle can  be appeared  on the horizon. Observers believe that the issue of the international roads from and to Baghdad reflects the depth of the conflict that the region will witness after the elimination of Daesh and reflects the ongoing conflict about the future of the Iranian influence, not only in Iraq but in Syria and Lebanon and the region in general.

The Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies