The situation in Iraq is fraught with a lot of risk , after two days of the failure of the new Iraqi parliament in naming one of the competing parties to form a government , with the failure to hold a session of the day before yesterday’ and to announce the postponement of the meeting until mid-September, to show Iraq as it is incapable because of the US-Iranian conflict on the influence in it noting that Tehran is fiercely adhering to form a new government created from the womb of the coalition of the militias of Popular crowd and Nuri al-Maliki, in return for a US insistence on breaking Iran’s direct allies in Iraq and Washington’s preference for the victory of al-Sadr-Abadi coalition in naming the new government . This is due to the clear escalation of the two Shiite groups and the fears that it will include the street, especially with the presence of armed factions supporting both sides of the political conflict in the country, and with the continued failure of the Sunni forces to nominate their candidate for the presidency of parliament, and each bloc put forward its own candidate for the post. To this, the leaks of Kurdish leaders indicated ,currently existed in Baghdad , that they are waiting for the decision of the Federal Court in determining which two camps is the most numerous bloc and has the right to form a government, to regain their role after the Kurdish blocs lost influence in relation to the formation of the largest bloc.
In the meantime, observers for political affairs in Iraq confirmed the existence of a new initiative aimed at resolving the political crisis by achieving a rapprochement between the leader of the “Fatah” alliance , the political wing of the factions of the “popular crowd,” Hadi Amiri, and leaders of the opposing camp, especially the leader of the “Sadrist current ” Muqtada al-Sadr, and the leader of the al-Hikma movement “wisdom” Ammar al-Hakim, with the aim of joining the first to the coalition and the formation of the new government with the exclusion of the Daalat al-Qanoon coalition, “state of law coalition ,” led by Nuri al-Maliki from the scene for the next four years in line with the conditions of Mr. Muqtada al-Sadr. The observers confirmed that the initiative sponsored by several parties to bring the “Badr” and other deputies in the list of “al-Fatah” to the second camp (Sadr Abbadi) to form the government, after reaching the conviction that any government without forming the inclusion of Sadr or the list of “Fatah” will not last long “There are several parties sponsoring this initiative, including Ammar al-Hakim and Muqtada al-Sadr, after reaching the conviction that the non-convergence of the parties or their consensus will be difficult to form a government and reach political and security stability in the country.”
The talk of the initiative coincides with a visit by the UN envoy , Jan Kubic, to Tehran, since yesterday evening, to meet with Iranian officials and discuss the formation of the Iraqi government, in a move considered by Iraqi politicians a precedent of its kind . The Iranian agency “Arna” , said that the special assistant to the President of the Islamic Shura Council Hussein Amir Abdullahian met Kupic in Tehran, and discussed the formation of the Iraqi government. The agency quoted the UN envoy “his hope that the Iraqi parliament and leaders of this country to reach an agreement on the new government, in promoting the path of security and stability in Iraq.”
International relations experts believe that Iraq is at the core of the US-Iranian conflict in the region. It enjoys a strategic position for the two countries in the current conflict. If America managed to lift Iran’s hand on Iraq, all the lines connecting between Syria and Lebanon and Tehran would be cut off , and then it is easy to provide stability and security to Israel’s border areas , and if Iran was able to weaken the US role in Iraq, its dominance over Syria and Lebanon would be strengthened, and move the arena of conflict to the doors of Israel and thus end the story of preventing the development of Iranian missiles so as not to reach Tel Aviv, because Iran then and instead of expanding the range of its long-range weapons, the distance between these weapons and Israel will be reduced. From this importance, the intervention of the two countries comes heavily in the formation of the Iraqi government to be able to use it for the service of their goals, and Iran be able to resolve its crises through the Iraqi gate.
Keeping in mind that Iran suffers from a crisis at all levels as a result of the failure of a regime that it believes escaping abroad could largely obviate the need for paying attention to the concerns and aspirations of the Iranians. Iran’s internal crisis can be attributed to its failure to develop the economy since 1979, the date of the fall of the Shah. Iranian officials promised in the post-Shah era and announced that the Islamic Republic would not only rely on Iran’s oil and gas revenues. Iran is at the mercy of oil and gas more than ever. At a certain stage, Iraq has become an outlet for its shattered economy. After 2003, Iran knew how to drain Iraq until the udder of cow was running dry which is so- called Iraqi economy. There is an economic and social crisis in Iran and Iraq at the same time .This comes at a time when the Iranian-American confrontation can not be underestimated in which Iraq has been turned into one of its fields . There is also popular discontent in Iraq that no government can easily handle.
Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies