The Iranians are in a state of anxiety and anticipation, a few days before the second package of US sanctions comes into effect. The second package of US sanctions includes companies managing Iranian ports, as well as companies working in sea shipments and shipbuilding , Iran’s energy sector, especially the oil sector, sanctions on Iran’s central bank and its financial dealings, while the US administration is betting on tougher sanctions and crippling the Iranian economy to oblige officials of the country to sit on the negotiating table and accept a new agreement acceptable to Trump and correct the shortcomings of the nuclear agreement concluded in 2015, Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammed Jawad Zarif stressed that the US sanctions may have economic repercussions, but will not change Tehran’s policies.
As the second package of US sanctions against Iran targeting the oil and banking sectors approaches on November 4, these sanctions are a major dilemma for a country that depends mainly on its oil revenues. It should be noted that Tehran has the fourth largest oil reserves in the world and the second largest reserves of natural gas, and is the third largest producer of oil in OPEC, which produces about 3.8 million barrels per day, and therefore its economy depends mainly on the sale of oil and gas, It isn’t easy for it that its sale from the oil to reach “zero” due to the sanctions. At the same time, officials stressed that they will find “other ways” to maintain the level of oil exports, according to a statement by Oil Minister Begin Namdar Zanjane last September, and by exploring the old tricks of Tehran and the new options it has recently launched, it can be said that the Iranian Murshed, Ali Khamenei will have 5 tricks to maintain the level of production, after the resumption of US sanctions on Sunday, the current November 4.
The sanctions come as the price of the Iranian currency deteriorates. The level of fear of sanctions that will exacerbate Tehran’s economic crisis rises. And in light of the boiling of the street, which rose over the poor economic situation and the spread of corruption and repression in the country. The Iranians are anxiously awaiting the entry into force of the new US sanctions package two days later that could plunge the country into a phase not seen before by an unprecedented popular explosion against the regime. According to Iranian observers, what President Donald Trump has seen as unprecedented sanctions from which the social and economic circles fear, including the pro-Faqih regime or those that benefit from the privileges it offers.
Observers pointed out that the statements of former President Mohammad Khatami on the painful repercussions of the next sanctions, and the recognition of Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Jawad Zarif about the harshly sanctions on the Iranian economy, reflect the beginning of dealing of the old and modern facets of the Iranian regime with the new entitlement, and the beginning of the Tehran regime’s decision to make decisive decisions towards finding an exit including the return to the negotiating table as demanded by US President Donald Trump. Although Tehran is trying to make use of time and count on midterm elections in the United States on the sixth of this month that it may change something in the administration’s approach to Iran, but observers have observed a shift in the international mood in favor of US sanctions including to stop the purchase of oil from Iran. The experts in international affairs see that the international commitment is an expression to the international desire of all capitals to change the approach of the Iranian regime in the approach of international relations. They stressed that China, Russia, Japan and EU countries , for example, which have reservation on the question of Washington’s withdrawal from the nuclear agreement and the imposition of sanctions against Iran, they share the United States shares its concern about the future of the nuclear program and the nature of the missile program and Iran’s agendas within the Middle East.
The Washington Post quoted Brian Hawke , the newly appointed US special envoy to Tehran , as saying US sanctions on Iran had a long-term goal, and the White House administration hoped those sanctions would force Tehran to sit down at the negotiating table with Washington. The United States is working hard to convince the world to stop buying Iranian oil. “Iran will want to negotiate when it feels pressure. Trump’s goal of withdrawing from the nuclear agreement signed in 2015 is to push Iran to accept a new treaty that goes beyond what it signed with the administration of the former president , Barack Obama ,” Hawk said at a seminar held in the thought institution at the Washington organized by anti-war activists. . “Hawk noted that the Obama administration did the same with Iran before forcing it to sign the treaty in 2015, where economic sanctions were imposed from 2012 to 2014, and the White House is currently pursuing the same strategy .The biggest challenge to the Trump administration is Whether Washington can persuade major countries, such as China and India, not to buy Iranian oil, both of which rely heavily on the purchase of Iranian crude, especially that both are not enthusiastic to such a decision.
Hawk sought to defend Trump’s decision to re-impose sanctions on Iran and to withdraw from the nuclear deal, saying: “The White House can not coexist with an agreement that failed to prevent Iran from interfering in the Middle East and supporting its local agents and failed to prevent it from developing its ballistic missiles. Hawk pointed out ” Iran has supplied the Houthis in Yemen with self-propelled projectiles launched at Saudi Arabia , and Iran has the largest ballistic missile capability in the Middle East, more than 10 ballistic missile systems under development, Iran’s missile program is the most important challenge facing the region’s nuclear nonproliferation efforts, which constitutes a permanent threat for our allies . “Hawke criticized the former Obama administration’; because of the easing of sanctions in return for curbing Iran’s nuclear activities under the 2015 agreement, hoping to ease Iran’s regional policy and militarization of the region. The US special representative to Iran went on saying that the pace of Iran’s missile program has escalated and has not declined despite the entry of the agreement into force and cyber-attacks are continuing, and threats to close the Strait of Hormuz have not stopped. Trump’s new strategy, according to Hawk, is to reach a new deal that addresses all threats posed by Iran.
With the implementation of the second package of US sanctions on Iran, it confirms the insistence of the Trump administration to hit Iran’s economy and make it completely isolated from the world, to oblige Tehran to return to square one in a new nuclear agreement, and sanctions are likely to be effective on Tehran at the moment because American financial hegemony due to the fact that the US dollar is the largest foreign reserve currency in the world, and in a related context, the world is a state of anticipation and caution that the US State Department did not hide , where a page dedicated to count down for the enforcement of sanctions showing the reasons to impose sanctions and what is required from the Iranian regime to do to avoid them.
Iranian Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies