Robots could take over 20 million jobs by 2030

Robots could take over 20 million jobs by 2030

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Researcher Shatha Khalil *

Translated by : mudhaffar al-kusairi

According to a study from Oxford University, robots can solve the labor shortage dilemma, but it will be a double-edged sword , robotics are expected to acquire about 20 million jobs around the world by 2030, which would widen social inequality but revive the economy.
The study showed the increasing use of robots in the industry, which have positive and negative effects on the economies of countries, and despite the disadvantages of replacing the system of automation, especially the loss of workers for their jobs, but it will lead to global economic growth and hence the importance of changing the policies of countries to adapt to this development.
There are many reasons for companies and businesses to switch to automation, most notably: reducing labor costs, increasing competitiveness by enhancing productive efficiency and efficiency, as well as reducing errors caused by human error or staff instability. On average, robot produces much more than man produces and does not require leave and does not have rights burdensome companies.
Economists are predicting that robots could do more than 20 million manufacturing jobs around the world by 2030.
The shift from man to machine is not just a business step by companies individually, but is seen by experts as a fundamental shift in the work of the world’s largest economic power, inspired by political slogans and directives.
The advisory group, which operates the study, Oxford Economics, a UK-based research and consulting firm, said robots were moving from factories to the service sector, and that it would be difficult for workers with limited skills to find jobs elsewhere.
Greater reliance on automation will boost production and economic growth, creating as many jobs as it eliminates others, but the biggest loss will be in poor regions.

The study confirms that the employment displacement caused by the increased use of robots will not be the same level across the world, or even within countries.
Robots have already taken over millions of manufacturing jobs and are expanding into the service sector.
China is one of the most used robots, and encourages the expansion of China’s “robot army” by 35% annually, until 2020.

Chinese President Xi Jinping called for the “robot revolution,” as the government promised generous aid. Guangdong alone provided about $ 200 billion in aid for the transitional period.

China has become the world’s largest buyer of robots, and studies have shown that 75 percent of jobs in China are prone to become jobs by robots, since there are not enough workers. The region is heading toward population fragmentation as the “demographic dividend” faded away “in the country, wages are also rising significantly in China, an increase of 10 percent annually, while the cost of robots is declining. For example, the use of four Ping An robots is about $ 4 million , it is almost equal to the wages of 256 workers per year .
China and companies argued that they are increasingly using robots because it is difficult to recruit and retain workers. The work seems to be intense and tiresome, so we have to raise workers’ wages to ensure they do not give up our company. The average wage is $ 1,200 a month, more than double the rate in that region Industrial.
In the next 11 years, there may be 14 million robots operating in China alone. Economists have analyzed the long-term impact of the automation system, noting that the number of robots in use worldwide has increased threefold over the past two decades to 2.25 million , While the study expected that the use of robots will yield benefits in terms of productivity and economic growth, but also acknowledged that their use will generate defects.

A steel kitchen manufacturer has replaced 256 workers with nine robots. Workers get sick and go through days of falling back, and they are prone to mistakes, while robots can work for 24 hours, and they finish work on time.

China has become the world’s largest buyer of robots, and studies have shown that 75 percent of jobs in China are likely to be transformed into robots.
Not only did Beijing buy machinery, but it also went to buy foreign companies that manufactured it , as the giant Chinese hardware paid $ 6 billion to acquire 85% of German Coca Company , one of the world’s largest robotics makers.

For this , workers struggle to keep their jobs as robots enter, “The abandonment of workers will be the prevailing trend,” said Jia Jinfu, who was previously abandoned in a chemical factory. He added , “We will need to have special skills and in a strong competition with robots “.
Economists advise governments to prepare for social unrest due to automation, calling it a challenge to future crises because of the proliferation of technologies that are supposed to serve the interests of the human being, economic development, the eradication of poverty and unemployment, not the creation of new crises, greater poverty and wider unemployment.

The technological developments in the self-driving trucks and cars , food preparation robots, and factories that are operating automatically , the impact of it all in labor and employment.

Many economic analysts point out that the employment mechanism has created more jobs than eliminated it, but the trend in recent years has led to gap in the skills between workers and robots that has led workers to lose a lot of their jobs and that the most affected jobs are “repetitive” and the jobs in the logistics centers, on the other hand, jobs that require “sympathy, creativity or social intelligence will remain dominated by humans for decades. Robots will have an increasing role in sectors including retail, health care, hospitality and transportation, as well as construction and agriculture.”

We come to the conclusion advising workers on how to achieve balance between the required human skills and skills that can be acquired by the machine.
Researchers say individuals must adopt a lifelong learning mentality because there are no lifelong jobs.

Economic Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies