Iraqi Prime Minister Adil Abdul Mahdi was and still constituting a favorable opportunity to restore its internal and external conditions of a political system based on sectarian and national quotas, which is one of the fundamental dilemmas. This quota, in turn, established the so-called partners of the political process in Iraq in which Adil Abdul Mahdi to discover over time that some of them prefer special partisan , sectarian and national interests at the expense of the Iraqi state, instead of being a national way to help him in the success of his national reform project, they were a tool to conspire against him, and his project aimed at getting Iraq rid of its multi-dimensional crises.
We do not reveal a secret when we say that among the partners of the political process in Iraq, those who have the ambition to become prime minister of Iraq, and the list of candidates is full of names, and the embassies of regional and international countries operating in Iraq send reassuring messages to those who are loyal to them in the political process in Iraq, that he is Candidate for the position of Prime Minister!! However, the aspirants of that position may have lost the sight that the direct result of the falling or overthrow of Adil Abdul Mahdi’s government is the collapse of the entire Iraqi political system.
Constitutionally, the post of prime minister is a constitutional entitlement. A political person who receives “half +1” of members of the Iraqi Council of Representatives can form the Iraqi government, but politically, according to the political custom that Iraq used to follow in the phase after 2003, there are several political and religious considerations can taken in to account in the selection of the Prime Minister of Iraq, including: the approval of the highest religious authority in Najaf (Marjaa) on that choice, and Ali Khamenei, the Supreme leader of the Iranian revolution ( Murshid ), and the United States of America.
After the US withdrawal from Syria, the Trump administration will focus on Iraq, which means that if an Iraqi political figure is chosen as prime minister without the approval of the US administration, this will have economic and military-security consequences that Iraq cannot afford, economically : the administration of US President Donald Trump may impose , through the US Treasury Department, harsh multilateral measures , for example, all Iraqi money will be subject to prosecution noting that it is now protected by presidential decree based on the Iraq-US security agreement , so in the case of cancellation , the file of compensations will be reopened , as well as accusations of Iraq of supporting terrorism, and losses of US companies before 2003, and the Iraqi money will be withheld until resolving of judicial files .
Not to mention the suspension of sending the dollar currency to Iraq, which will stop many of the obligations, and stop the work of the financial system “DFI” and stop the flow of $ 16 billion, which leads to a financial deficit in Iraq that prevents it from paying the salaries of its employees, especially employees of embassies abroad and at home, this means “bankruptcy of the state” and international obligations of Iraq and its obligations towards companies especially oil companies and the country will be in a state of complete paralysis similar to the days of the siege of the 1990s, with little difference, so taking such a step is playing with fire, undue risk, and in the context of the emphasis on Iraq concerning its positions on the PKK of Turkey and Qasad , Washington may instruct Turkey to stop its water supply, and will ask its allies from the Arab countries to tighten economic and political stranglehold on Iraq.
Militarily, the United States and its allies from the International Coalition and NATO may withdraw their forces from Iraq irreversibly .These forces, especially the air force, have played a prominent role in the elimination of the terrorist organization ISIS, which may return to its terrorist activity and return to threaten the security and stability of Iraq.
The political class of all spectrums in Iraq must be deeply aware that the selection mechanism of the Iraqi Prime Minister is very sensitive for the United States of America, that the selection of him has become within the context of the great game at the regional level, and not at a very, very simple level, as in meetings at Babylon Hotel”in Baghdad, or meetings of the Sheikhs and gentlemen, it is a bigger game than you think and I think!
The political class in Iraq should stand with the prime minister of Iraq, Adil Abdul Mahdi, and not depend on the narrow interests represented by some spectrum of parties and militias, it was not acceptable to some or most of that class to leave the reformist warrior, Adil Abdul Mahdi, to face protests alone, as if their tongue says “face your fate yourself”, not to mention the negative attitudes that have been issued by some of them.
Iraq and its people, who have the fourth largest oil reserves in the world, and the majority of its people are young, so it is not fair to suffer from the fires of unemployment, and a large part of it lives below the poverty line.
At this moment, Iraq is looking for itself and its future and the failure of reform and promises will pave the way for the collapse of the Iraqi political system.
Iraq is at a crossroads between a political system that has lost the state project and a society and a younger generation that can no longer wait. It seeks to reformulate the Iraqi state project on new foundations, taking into account the achievement of a prosperous and democratic Iraq.
Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies