Although ISIS was defeated militarily in Iraq and Syria and lost all areas of its control at the end of March, but its threats still exist in Iraq and Syria. And if the four-year war on the organization led to the loss of most of the leaders of the first and second ranks in large unknown numbers , then the numbers of the remaining fighters or cells hidden among the population, whether in Iraq or in Syria, are still not known with certainty as well.
It seems that there is an exaggeration in estimating the number of the organization’s fighters in the two countries, Iraq and Syria. With the fact that ISIS militarily defeated and lost large numbers of its fighters, leaders, and combat equipment, but the organization has maintained to some extent significant numbers of its fighters, as the US Defense Department report indicates between 14 to 18,000 fighters in Iraq and Syria only, including about 3,000 foreign fighters . Estimates of the numbers of the organization’s fighters vary, despite the Iraqi security forces seizing more documents related to the organization.
But most estimates say 30,000, the top ceiling for the numbers of ISIS , and it may have relied on previous US estimates that are mentioned after the events of Mosul 2014 indicating that there are between 21 and 30,000 ISIS fighters in Iraq and Syria.
The current political crisis in Iraq could be one of the reasons for the return of terrorist organizations in light of the state’s preoccupation with internal affairs … or that the security and military authorities have taken measures to ensure that the scenario of ISIS’s occupation of Iraqi provinces in 1914 is not repeated. The question that arises in this context can ISIS Re-emergence in Iraq?
Observers of Iraqi affairs denied the validity of new Iraqi and Western intelligence reports of the possibility of the return of the activity of the “state organization” in Iraq again with thousands of elements to attack the cities it lost in favor of the Iraqi regular security forces. They affirmed that the terrorist organization has become disjointed, chased and powerless, and that its military ability to carry out surprise attacks has diminished and does not pose a threat, due to its loss of control over the states and its heavy loss to the Sunni incubator from which it was gaining its strength to launch and plan in launching its quality operations, in addition to losing the most prominent leaders of the organization and at their head Abu Bakr Al-Baghdadi and his aides who are candidate to succeed him due to the accurate U.S. air strikes.
They added that the return of the organization to resume its activities has become a very complicated matter, and if it happens, it needs years to rebuild itself by spinning its strings well and attracting new fighters, and smuggling its leaders from Iraqi prisons similar to what happened in Abu Ghraib prison during the rule of Nuri al-Maliki.
They pointed out that the terrorist organization no longer exists on the ground and that its capabilities to launch attacks throughout Iraq have become difficult because it has lost its financial and commercial networks to prepare its operations, and the evidence is that if there was armed activity for terrorist organization fighters in Baghdad , it would take advantage of the popular protests and the security and political chaos that the capital is experiencing, and they launch car bombs and explosive belts targeting civilian gatherings and markets, with the aim of creating a gap between citizens and the Iraqi government.
They pointed out that ISIS had received great blows with the killing of its leader and spokesperson for the organization “Abu Hassan al-Muhajir”. These strikes caused weaknesses for the organization at that point in which it lost those vast lands, and they do not believe that the organization will carry out any operations in Iraq in these conditions, because there is an awareness of the security forces away from the demonstrations and the position of the government.
Regarding the threat posed by the organization at the present time, they said, despite the pre-emptive security strikes by the Iraqi forces and the coalition, the organization still constitutes a threat in Syria, Iraq, and in other regions, where the organization is active so far in Syria and some western regions of Iraq.
They explained that today there is talk about the situation in Syria and the great crisis in light of the Turkish military operation towards the Syrian Democratic Forces, the American withdrawal and the large number of alliances, all of which may be exploited by the organization to carry out operations in Syria and some border areas. They emphasized that the threat that the country fears is not from the Iraqi interior, but from Syria, given the complex political and security situation, which may affect the Iraqi arena.
But there are those who follow the Iraqi affairs see that armed militias are no less dangerous than the terrorist organization ISIS, and it is no longer a secret to anyone that there are more than 67 armed Shiite sectarian militias, of which Iran has 41 militias and the other militias are distributed to a number of other Iraqi Islamic political parties. The most numerous militias, armament , financial capabilities, and political and social influence, and the most dangerous militias for Iraq and its future are those that are directly linked to Iran and the Iranian religious and political Marja , that is, all subject to the Supreme Leader of the Islamic Revolution in Iran, Mr. Ali Khamenei.
They are also linked to the representative of the Iranian Leader and Revolutionary Guards and the Army of al-Quds , Iranian General Qassem Soleimani, and are subject to his leadership, will and direction, and it is from the will and directives of Khamenei and the Iranian state. As for the other Shiite militias, whatever their Iraqi influence, size, and armament, they are ultimately unable to effectively deny the will or interests of Iran in Iraq, and are forced by this or that degree to cooperate with the Iraqi-Iranian militias, especially the main ones.
Politically, militias have worked to translate their popularity that they gained as a result of their victory over the organization into political gains during the parliamentary elections held in May 2018, and on the economic side, Iran’s proxies in Iraq worked to impose their economic influence in Iraq in order to control the Iraqi state and reduce the severity of the American sanctions. After the application of the second phase of the US sanctions against Iran, the latter proceeded to adopt a new economic approach in Iraq that relies on expanding economic relations between the two countries in order to ease the American embargo on Iran. It is worth noting that the first affected by those sanctions, which included stopping the export of oil and energy sources of Iran, is Iraq, which imports gas and electric energy from Iran in large quantities to meet its needs. During 2017, Iranian companies provided 80 percent of technical and engineering services in Iraq. Iranian agents also established a number of banks and real estate companies to transfer money and buy real estate from the displaced at the cheapest prices under threat and displacement.
This influence was evident in the financial transfers that took place between Iraq and Iran after the entry of Hezbollah Brigades and Iranian agents to the city of Jurf al-Sakhr, north of Babel, during the fighting with ISIS, as they turned the city into an economic center for the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, and they took advantage of an oil refinery that had been under developing by the rate of 35%, and they coordinated with the Iraqi Ministry of Oil to invest in oil and transformed the banks of the Euphrates River to places for the raise fish , and confiscated 100,000 agricultural dunums of the groves of the Janabine clans, transformed them into agricultural projects that funded agents, imported cows, an Iranian dairy plant, and a poultry project to finance these militias, as the city of Jurf al-Suk was converted to a city where its economy depends entirely on Iran. It is also necessary to note that in the city of Jurf al-Sakhr, Iran’s agents (i.e., the Hezbollah Brigades) were the most beneficiaries of these gains, as these forces operate a network of prisons and have great influence in the region. This particularity is of great harm to the United States, which has included the Hezbollah Brigades in the list of foreign terrorist organizations in the United States, and among the most groups that are directly controlled by Iran.
The financial and political grip that Iran imposes on large sectors of the Iraqi people has become very large. As a result of this reality, efforts to integrate the Iranian-backed militias into the Iraqi army will ultimately prove ineffective. Iraq is unlikely to be able to overcome and restrain many militias because of the conflicting loyalties of its leadership and followers.
Therefore, those who follow the Iraqi issue see that the real danger to Iraq’s long-term stability comes from the Iranian-backed militias, and not only from the terrorist organization ISIS.
Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies