By: Shatha kalel
As Europe braces for another potentially harsh winter, a diplomatic and economic crisis is brewing between the European Union and one of its key suppliers of liquefied natural gas (LNG): Qatar.
In a diplomatic letter dated May 21, 2025, Qatari Energy Minister Saad Al-Kaabi warned the Belgian government that Doha may begin diverting gas exports away from Europe in protest against the EU’s new Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive.
This development, revealed by Reuters, carries serious political and economic consequences for the European continent, especially as energy security remains unstable following Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.
Background: From Dependence on Russia to Qatar
Before 2022, Europe relied on Russia for about 40% of its natural gas needs. That changed drastically when Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022. The EU responded with strict sanctions, while Russia weaponized its gas exports in retaliation.
In response, European countries began seeking reliable alternatives—enter Qatar. Between 2022 and 2024, Qatar supplied about 12% to 14% of Europe’s LNG imports through ports in Belgium, the Netherlands, France, and Italy. It also signed long-term agreements with major European firms like Shell, TotalEnergies, and Eni.
What Is the Due Diligence Law and Why Is Qatar Objecting?
The “Corporate Sustainability Due Diligence Directive,” passed by the EU in 2024, requires large companies operating in the European market to monitor and address human rights violations and environmental harm across their global supply chains, both within and outside the EU.
Key provisions include:
Requiring companies to develop climate transition plans aligned with the Paris Agreement to limit global warming to below 1.5°C
Fines of up to 5% of a company’s global revenue for non-compliance
Extending legal liability to external partners in the supply chain
Qatar, which faces ongoing criticism over labor conditions and emissions, sees the law as an infringement on its sovereignty. In his letter, Minister Al-Kaabi stated, “The State of Qatar and QatarEnergy do not intend to achieve net zero emissions in the near future,” calling the law’s provisions a violation of sovereign rights to set national climate goals.
How Could Qatar’s Threat Affect Europe?
This threat comes at a sensitive time. Europe is still vulnerable to energy price fluctuations, especially in winter. While gas reserves are currently full, any disruption in supply could have immediate consequences.
Possible outcomes include:
Sharp increases in gas and electricity prices
Rapid depletion of stored gas during cold spells
A fallback on more polluting fossil fuels like coal and diesel
Greater strain on public budgets to support households and businesses
Over the past two winters, EU governments spent hundreds of billions of euros to shield citizens from soaring energy costs. If Qatar withdraws from the European market, this scenario could repeat.
A Broader Clash: Climate vs. Sovereignty
This dispute highlights a fundamental challenge for the EU: how to enforce its environmental and human rights standards in a world where many nations do not share its values or commitments.
While the EU sees the directive as a step toward a fairer, more sustainable global economy, Qatar views it as a new form of regulatory colonialism.
It also exposes contradictions in the Paris Agreement itself, which allows countries to independently define their climate contributions, while the EU is now imposing additional legal obligations on foreign partners.
Meanwhile, companies like Shell and TotalEnergies face a legal and commercial dilemma: comply with EU law and risk losing Qatari contracts, or maintain partnerships with Qatar and risk EU fines.
Is There Room for Negotiation?
The European Commission has already proposed amendments to the law, including delaying its implementation until mid-2028 and easing some requirements. However, Qatar has said these changes are “insufficient” and has gone further, suggesting the complete removal of the climate planning clause.
The ball is now in the EU negotiators’ court: Will they stick to their environmental standards or give in to economic pressure and the looming winter?
Conclusion: Energy Crisis or Values Test?
Qatari gas is more than just a commodity—it’s a political lever. The threat to redirect supplies away from Europe marks the first open confrontation between a major energy producer and the EU’s sustainability legislation.
As the world gradually transitions to green energy, such conflicts are likely to become more frequent.
The core question remains: Can the EU balance its values with its vital interests? And can it enforce its ethical vision on partners it depends on for energy security?
The coming winter will reveal the answer.
Economic Studies Unit / North America Office
Al-Rabetat Center for Research and Strategic Studies