In the context of Iran ‘s mania for extension and territorial expansion on the account of its empty treasury , and the deficit of up to more than nine billion annually and the decline of oil prices ; will Tehran be able to continue of the policy of intervention in the internal affairs of many countries, particularly Arab affairs. Which reflected on the situation of the Arab countries where the threat of Iranian expansion at the expense of it pushed the Arab states, especially the Gulf to increase military spending to counter any Iranian expansion, and the first beneficiary of increasing military spending is the arms companies and their respective countries; as it is in its interest and its countries to stir disputes and conflicts dragging governments of the region and involve it in order to import arms to run factories of companies and its workers, and then achieve profits so that they will be able to pay taxes owed to the state.
Economists estimated the cost of the involvement of Iran in regional and international conflicts , with three trillion dollars since the Iranian revolution . And its involvement in wars waged against Islamic and Arabic states led to the spending a huge financial amounts as the experts estimated the cost of Iraq-Iran war of the eighties of the last century by $ 500 million dollar .
Iranian interference in the internal affairs of Arab countries did not stop, as it involved in the war in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon, Yemen, and Libya, but they are stretched to the non- Arab countries such as Asian and African countries , in various forms and means, including wasting huge sums of money to be paid in cash to systems and parties and militias, in order to buy political loyalties or expansion in the region, and maintain these conflicts in these countries, and the Iranian Revolutionary Guard undertake to support those nations based on large financial potential that obtained from the Iranian oil sales, on the account of the economic development a, and the welfare of the Iranian people.
It is known here that the Iranian military expenditures of the Foundations of army and the Revolutionary Guards and intelligence up to thirty billion dollars, including military development expenses, on the arsenal does not refer to a country that wants to remain in its borders.
All of this spending comes at the expense of the Iranian people, and although it is starving, suffering the absence of its development rights, and the right to health care and education, and a lack of infrastructure, however , that Iran , despite these conditions and debt approaching eighty billion dollars, continues to the same policy of interference .
Economists say that the decline in the price of oil worldwide, befuddled Iran accounts that were betting on, to reduce losses due to sanctions by increasing the production and exports of oil, but low oil prices in this unprecedented level turned over the Iranians expectations of which their oil exports have fallen under the weight of sanctions from four million barrels per day to almost two million and one hundred thousand, forcing the Iranian government to take negative decisions on the conditions of the Iranians , such as raising the prices of basic goods and services in a way may expose Iran to the storms of popular protest because inability of a large segment of people to provide the cost of everyday living.
Iran is spending to support al – Assad (Syria)
experts (Faris Center for Middle Eastern Studies) estimated amounts paid by Iran for the Assad regime in cash and weapons and experts to $ 15 billion annually, to cover the cost of the war in Syria, to buy weapons and missiles, the financing to pay salaries for Syrian military factions battling with Assad, and the financing of civilian and military expenditures to the Syrian regime.
These huge amounts reflect the Iranian position in supporting al – Assad and his regime, and can add other expenses related to salaries of Iranians fighters, experts and troops who are sent to Syria to support Assad, and in this waste of Iranian military power, and the Treasury , which is mainly suffering from economic problems.
The Iranians believe that their money wasted in wars to support the Arab regimes, while those who seize power in Iran , said those countries are islands politically affiliated to Tehran and must strengthen and sustain its presence.
Therefore, in the event of the end of the fighting in Syria in a political settlement, The field situation on the ground (ie military) will determine how much Iran will be able to keep from investments across the negotiating table. The other possibility is a military resolution, in this case either to swallow Syria economically by Iran if the battle resolved in its favor, or Iran is losing all the economic gains in the event of the fall of the regime on the hands of the opposition, and all the possibilities are on the table.
Iran spending in Yemen – Huthi
Experts estimated the value of Iranian money that was spent in Yemen since 2009 to $ 8 billion, and a confidential report of the experts at the United Nations lifted to the UN Security Council said that Iran provides for the Houthis in addition to the money , it provides weapons , pointing out that the Yemeni authorities when it drove in the 2013 the Iranian Ceyhan ship found it transporting weapons to the rebels.
In addition , expenses in Yemen , the money that the Iranian institution is wasting on its staff of the civil and military sectors who are free to run conflict in Yemen, and to send arms shipments and hire ships and training, rehabilitation and other expenses reflected negatively on the level of Iranian life.
Iran ‘s support for Hezbollah in Lebanon
Iran ‘s support for Hezbollah in Lebanon comes in a number of ways, most notably the annual cash support , which its annual value is estimated by experts to $ 300 million, since its foundation and till now and Iran has provided the party with another source of support worth four billion dollars , run by businessmen and interfaces in many states of the world, and taken advantage of their profits to the strengthening of Hezbollah, and increase what might be called Awqaf of financial Party(endowment) ; to attract tens of thousands of elements in Lebanon, for employment in institutions and companies, as well as civilian and military expenditures for various sectors in Lebanon.
Iran ‘s support for the Palestinian factions
Iran supports too Palestinian factions, as the experts estimated the financial support that has been submitted to the Islamic Jihad movement in Gaza and the West Bank to $ 150 million.
The figures have varied between high and low, and according to several criteria , including the extent of the movement ‘s commitment (Islamic Jihad) to the Iranian policy and in periods the support stopped because of the spacing held between the movement and Tehran, however , we can say in general that Iran has provided substantial financial allocations for the Islamic Jihad movement, and this money was allocated for the training of cadres and smuggling of weapons and political and media expenses, in addition to other items,
Iran has offered a financial support estimated at two billion dollars to Hamas, distributed in cash allocations related to salaries of cadres of the movement, and the payment of salaries for civil and military individuals , and the expenses of military training, and the manufacture of weapons and smuggling of weapons and missiles.
Although relations have cooled between Hamas and Tehran when Hamas moved away from the support for the Assad regime, but it is an important indicator of the desire of Tehran to the polarization inside the occupied Palestine ..
In the contexts of Iranian jamming on the US economy , Washington accuses Tehran of printing fake dollars, corresponds to a very large extent with the original dollars and supports their individuals ,noting that international bodies have repeatedly declared of existence of fake dollars in an enormous quantities in the hands of the leaders and elements of Iran in Lebanon, Syria and other countries. Tehran was happy in this story to employ it internally by saying to the Iranians that the money that is spent on Arab wars of Iran and others, not from the Treasury , but just a fake dollars, but this is not true, as there may be fake dollars but small amounts, and the fact that billions paid mostly are true and It is the price of Iranian oil, sold in the formal market, and out of the markets, which is the wealth of the Iranians that are squandered in useless conflicts.
Intervention in Iraq
And in Iraq , the matter is completely different from that in other countries because Iran relies on the policy of taking advantage from the Iraqi money dramatically since 2003, to support it politically , partisan , the media, and military in the Arab wars, and in particular that some parties of the successive governments in Iraq are in favor of Iran.
And experts estimated the value of the Iranian support to Iraqi , Syrian militias together by two billion dollars a year, in addition to huge financial expenses related to full – time Iranian experts and officers to work in Iraq, and train thousands of Iraqi elements in Iran, military, security, and with this expenses to follow – up to Iraqi affairs internally
and those loyal to Iran in Iraq help Tehran financially by various means, and entered as a partner in the Iranian war expenses in the Arab world, without discovering the secrets of this file by many people specifically, Iraq which is a very wealthy, and its huge budgets is a partner to Iran in the shadow , which involved Iraqi government and military authorities on its behalf in many conflicts within and outside Iraq, representative of Iranian politics, which cost the treasury of Iraq a lot of money.
The implications of the situation inside Iran
Economic studies indicate that increasing and the involvement in spending on Iran ‘s foreign militias affect negatively on Iran ‘s economic growth in terms of the decline savings and investment rates, and spending in the health and education sectors, and higher military spending which leads to the budget deficit, rising debt, high rates of taxes and the decline of the productivity of the private sector, which is reflected on the Iranian street , who came out to express about their rejection of Iran ‘s interference in conflicts in many Arab countries.
In the Iranian city of Isfahan , the people demonstrated against Tehran ‘s interference in Syria system, and the economic cost of Iran ‘s support to the Assad regime, and a video was spread on YouTube site and other sites from the social networking sites in which a group of employees who have not been paid since months , they are demanding the Iranian government to address domestic problems instead of intervention in Syria.
the Arab relations official in the Iranian Kurdistan Komla party, Soran Palani, said “The deteriorating economic situation in Iran exacerbated the popular anger against the foreign policy of Iran, especially in Syria.
He added that non – Persian peoples in Iran, including Kurds, Arabs, opposed to the Iranian regime ‘s support for Assad against the Syrian people and interventions in the Arab states, supporting “terrorist movements in the region along the lines of Hezbollah.”
Palani pointed out that the opposition of the non- Persian peoples comes from the political and humanitarian reasons, while demonstrations in several cities in Iran of Persian staff focusing on the refusal of wasting of people ‘s money to support Assad.
A group of staff in the demonstrations chanting: “Get out of Syria and think about our financial situation “, in protest against the non – payment of government salaries, while the Iranian people ‘s money go to support the Assad regime.
the Arab relations official in the opposition Kurdistan Kumla party confirmed that it is not the first demonstration against the Iranian interference in Syria, but other cities had witnessed protest movements calling for a halt to “steal people ‘s money , which suffers from poverty.”
Adding to the weakness of the Iranian economy is the decline of oil prices in early trading in 09.01.2017, and after the announcement of increased exports of Iran, and not adhering to production amounts agreed by OPEC members finally .
The researchers believe that the future of Iran will see a shift in order to end the mandates of President Barack Obama , who was described by rulers in Iran as the Golden Era. As the policy , in essence , it is working to get closer to the Iranian regime , and this policy has given Iraq to Iran on a plate of gold .
In Syria , the ruler exceeded the red line to use the chemical in the war against the Syrian people, Assad and Iran, Russia realized that the way is open to them for the continuation of the attack on the Syrian people, but this policy , which temporarily succeeded not eliminated the resistance and will increase the financial cost to be paid by Iran to Syria.
If NATO wants to prevent the fall of Turkey to the arms of Russia and begins a courtesy with Turkey to begin support for Turkish operations, so the NATO has encouraged Russia practically on the game to make concessions. Then Moscow has to offer more concessions to the Turks due to the importance of Ankara for its goals and means to restrict Iran in Syria more and more.
The Russians have proved that they have no problem with the objectives of Turkey in Syria and attach priority to cooperation with Ankara. Here , we conclude that Iran is losing in Syria.
Finally , experts and scholars conclude that Iranian role is decreased both locally and internationally, so as the Iranian people are opposing the interventions of the system in other countries , and ardent popular resentment about the draining of Iran ‘s wealth for the export of terrorism and acts of killings and massacres in Syria and other countries which are a critical factors in the escalation of the growing pressure on the Iranian regime to stop their interventions in countries of the region.
And among other reasons that cause its decline also is the fall of oil prices and the increase of Iranian military spending on the account of economic growth on which it weakens the infrastructure that leads to the shaking of the coherence of the regime and its weakness which calls the minorities for the revolution and leads to the weakness of all joints of the state and the retroversion to the inside
Shatha Khalil
Translated by : Mudhaffar Kusairi
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies