That most of what distinguishes the Iranian-Russian partnership in Syria is that it evolved step by step a pace that to commensurate with the nature of the challenges and objectives of direct military intervention that looks close to a great extent between Tehran and Moscow, at least in the its declared form , and with the importance of this partnership between the two countries in Syria but it does not mean of cooperation with all levels, or wishing the emergence of the dispute between them. Because the subject of attitudes between Russia and the Iranian regime has become the most exciting contrast and circulating among diplomatic circles and media in the stage following the control of Aleppo and witnessed the declaration of «fragile» ceasefire where Tehran refused to sign on it, before it was pushed by Moscow to participate in the « fixing it» after the conclusion of Astana negotiations . As the public and unusual debate internationally bears between Russia and the Iranian regime about , who may be described as «makes a favor» to save Damascus and the Syrian regime consequently from falling during the last period , one of two meanings:
Either they are competing on the inheritance of the system after losing ,from their point of view , the justification of its existence or they indicate to the serious difference between them around the priorities of the next stage …. Political settlement for the Syrian war or the continuity of this war for other years .
It is not familiar among nations in the international community, especially if they are major powers, as is the case in Russia, or seeking the regional and international role as the Iranian regime, to enter into a debate about who contributed more than anyone else, or maybe even without the other, in a genocidal war raging since six years in a third country. Whether this war carried name of the defense of the regime in Syria, or the fight against terrorism, or the other, it makes no difference in the issue : the destruction of Syria and the displacement of people in the corners of the Earth in the end. Also, regardless of the absence of the system for this debate, as well as prior agreements regarding the negotiations in Astana, then this matter will not underestimate of the «Engagement» between Moscow and Tehran over what has been until now, not about what will be in future . and the forthcoming visit of the Iranian President Hassan Rowhani to Russia at the late of next month may be a turning point for determining the features of the evolution of the relationship that finally a Russian official described it as «a necessary evil».
Perhaps the first signs of disharmony between the two countries, is to reach an agreement of a “cessation of hostilities” in Syria and understanding on the resumption of the Geneva negotiations, which took place between Russia and the United States, away from the Iranian regime, boosting the latter the feeling that Russia’s intervention in Syria has withdrawn from them or almost, the Syrian paper, which has invested in over the past years, the money and the weapon and the blood. In this context, the Iranian president , Hassan Rohani, put in his remarks, his hand on one of the sticking points between the two sides, namely the future of Syria, which Russia does not mind to be a federation, while Iran supports a united Syria under the rule of Bashar al-Assad regime.
The second point of contention between the Russian and Iranian sides is the fate of the regime President Bashar al-Assad considered by the Iranians as the fundamental issue, because achieving their interests is linked to the person of the Bashar Assad or the ruling family, unlike the Russians who have close ties with commands of the army and the security services , not cling to the person of Bashar Assad. And despite the fact that the Russians realize that Bashar al-Assad is the main obstacle to any political solution in Syria, but they know that questioning of the legitimacy means that the Russian and Iranian presence is illegal, and this is beyond dispute between Moscow and Tehran, so rushing to the ambiguous phrase that “the fate of Assad decided by Syrian people. ”
the first to express about this disagreement, General Commander of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Mohammad Ali Jafari, who said in a speech in Tehran, on the third of November 2015, he said that “our neighbor Russia is helping in Syria, but it is not a happy with the existence of Hezbollah and it is not clear that the positions of Russia match with Iran on Bashar al-Assad. ”
And the Russian – Iran dispute in Syria began to come out into the open when the Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov sent a clear message to the Iranian regime that the Russian intervention prevented the certain fall of Syrian capital Damascus in the hands of armed groups, and that the presence of Iranian advisers and thousands of elements associated with militia in Tehran was not of value without the decisive intervention of Russian troops.
Followers of affairs of Syria considered that the strong response of Lavrov comes on the backdrop of Iran’s pursuit and the Lebanese Hezbollah to disable Astana path, creating a field obstacles to push the armed opposition to boycott the meetings held in the last January 23 , and sponsored by both Moscow and Ankara, and aims to impose a cease fire on all parties, including the Syrian forces and militias linked to the Iranian regime. Followers pointed out that Lavrov’s remarks aim to remind him and Hezbollah and Bashar al-Assad that if Russia were not . the scene will be different, and that they should recognize the fait accompli, and walk behind the Moscow to fix the proposed solution.
It was clear from the beginning that the Iranian regime is not satisfied with a last ceasefire agreement because Russia took the file in her hand, and assigned itself the task of ensuring Bashar al-Assad in exchange for ensuring Turkey’s armed opposition groups, which did not oppose it openly, but observers on the ground say they are working on confusion the agreement of violating the cease-fire on more than one front.
From this it is clear that there are Russian vision contrasts with the Iranian vision for Syria, the first stems up from the vision related directly to the centrality of Russia as an international power, the essence of this project can be summed up through two points:
- Moscow does not consider Syria as a fundamental pillar of the global Russian strategy , Moscow is dealing with Syria as a file among the important open strategic files between them and the United States and the Western countries behind
- The urgent need for Russia to assert its role as a superpower can to make peace and impose it in a sensitive area like the Middle East.
In return, the Iranian regime adopts a project based on the centrality to his influence as a regional power leads a multiple axes of states and movements and parties and organizations that are gathering under the slogan of resistance and the lack of recognition of Israel , that’s the way it looks at Syria and the crisis completely different from the Russian perspective; it looks more strategy and less pragmatic ; and so due to several reasons, including:
- The loss of Syria and out of the circle of the Iranian project does not mean the loss of an ally but only meant to break the back of the Iranian project in the region, the fact that Syria, with its system currently regarded as the most important link in the Iranian project workshops.Of course, the concept of Iran for the country’s unity and sovereignty may not match, not necessarily in the Syrian situation with the international political and legal definition, because the Iranian regime has not been reluctant to support the limits of “useful Syria” “Syrian promoted by the Assad regime in the case he can not to regain control of the entire territory of the country , but preferably he comprises the widest possible area, specifically the capital, Damascus, and even areas in the south of Syria. the Iranian concept contradict with the narrower concept, or so-called Ulwya state” which is limited to the Sahel (coast) region, and perhaps with it the center of the city of Homs only, which may be favored by the supporters of the regime, as a last resort.
- Unlike Russia, the Iranian regime wants to get out of Syria as a maker of victory for the Axis-led versus other axis consists of some Arab countries and Turkey, in cooperation with the US and some Western countries.
- According to strategists, Russia is serious about preventing Syria to be turned into a pocket for the Iranian regime, because “the Iranian regime targets in Syria is different from the goals of Russia, while Tehran is seeking to extend its influence in the region and undermine the regimes in Syria, Lebanon and Iraq by supporting factions loyal to her, Russia wants to strengthen the Assad regime on the ground and deal with the Syrian state, the aim of the expansion and the creation of a multi polar world to play a big role in it.
The one who is thinking within the Iranian regime that optimism in more strategic relationship between Tehran and Moscow than it is now is overly optimistic, it does not take into account the determinants of geopolitical interests and the best interests of the countries that may take different forms from one stage to another. They say that the strategic partnership between Russia and the Iranian regime in Syria is the interim partnership of diverse motives and objectives and that the survival of a steadfast partnership does not mean that Tehran and Moscow were becoming strategic allies noting that it is a long road to require the private mixture of a lot of confidence and historical factors and intersection with major civilized titles; Russia is still dealing with Iran as a matter of domination and subordination, while the Iran is raising slogan : neither the East nor West. To exceed All of this requires the substantial changes that countries do not seem to talk about it let alone apply them into practice on the ground. This means that the Iranian-Russian partnership in Syria does not have to be identical goals.
Muammar Faisal Kholi
Translated by: Mudhaffar al-Kusairi
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies