After the arrival of Donald Trump to the White House , tense became the prominent title in US –Iran relations, which has been ignited when the Iranian regime at the end of the last month of January , has launched a ballistic missile, as an experiment, which the American administration considered it as a provocative act by Iran , so the US did not hesitate to respond to it, where the US Treasury Department announced economic sanctions against the Iranian regime, involving 13 people and 12 entities. For his part, Donald Trump commented about that experience in a tweet on Twitter, saying: “Iran is playing with fire,” adding that the Iranians do not appreciate how much his predecessor, Barack Obama was good with them, stressing that he would not be like him . American president stressed then that all options are on the table towards the Iranian regime and he described the Iranian regime as “the first state of terrorism” in the world.
It seems that the policy of the imposition of US sanctions against the Iranian regime will not stop at that level, where US officials said before several days ago- that their management are looking for a proposal may lead to the classification of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard as a terrorist group. This means in the event of implementation of the proposal that the Iranian – US relations will witness a qualitative shift in the nature of the tension between them, because this time is not just impose economic sanctions on institutions or persons in the Iranian regime, but characterization of terrorism for an Iranian official military institution just like the Iranian revolutionary guards , which is one of the pillars of the Iranian regime internally and externally and is directly related to Ali Khamenei , Murshed of the Iranian revolution . if this proposal is implemented , this would mean that Donald Trump have announced about his future directions towards the Iranian regime, so it tends to counter Iran ‘s influence and cordon it in the Arab East, especially in Iraq and Syria.
This means that the opening-up policy pursued by former US President Barack Obama with the Iranian regime and his courtesy in Iraq was going to an end. The former president had devoted most of his attention in order to reach a diplomatic agreement of the Iranian nuclear project, ending with it- from the point of his view – two terms of his rule with achievement of his administration on US foreign policy level, it was a bet of the administration that the agreement will open the door of a change within the Iranian regime, and in his foreign policy to return as a regional , responsible actor through frameworks and international institutions. This did not happen where Iran continued with its expansion project in the Levant.
On the other hand, the Gulf countries felt that Obama deliberately marginalized and excluded it from the regional talk, but he wanted to be scaled and humiliated while at the same time he treated softly the Iranian regime and gave it a free hand in the Arab geography, through its involvement in Yemen and its support for the Houthis there. The Gulf states also felt that Barack Obama decided to support the Shiites against Sunnis in sectarian conflict between them, and that supporting the regional aspirations of the Iranian regime, not only as a result of nuclear deal that gave him the right to possess nuclear decisions as a principle, and blow up the system of non- nuclear proliferation , and bought from them to freeze its non-civilian nuclear activities just for ten years.
The question in this context Is Donald Trump to resort to target the Iranian territory in response to the challenges of the Iranian regime? The brandishing of resorting to the military option in dealing with it, is not a new statement in the American policy towards the Iranian regime noting that it has already waved by American presidents against Iran , and they did not use it for the reasons and considerations relating to its regional and international alliances . He is not hasty to the war confrontation with it, and not for fear of the threats of the Revolutionary Guards of using missiles and others, whatever it was serious, it remain limited of a defense strategy in which the Iranian regime to avoid exposing its territory and its facilities and in particular his regime to any risks directly. But Donald Trump is determined to rein in Iran’s lust wherever he can, because the Iranian regime climb away by his followers, that Iran has a large army of local militias, from Iraq to Syria and Lebanon. And it will not tolerate about trimming its nails, or to allow to destabilize the construction who spent years in establishing it . Note that with fueling of the conflict could threaten US interests and those of its allies in the region. However, the potential confrontation is possible to happen because there is contact between the two countries, namely in Iraq. Because for him , Iraq is the basic foundation for any external influence of it . But the Iranian regime’s aspiration willy-nilly became in the face of the US president Donald Trump, who said that his country wants a proportionate share with the three trillions spent in the administration of Iraq.
It was clear from the victory of President Donald Trump and his team, which is a mix of neo-conservatives and Zionists, that he is not alone in the struggle with the Iranian regime. But there is almost a consensus among the Republican Party on the necessity of putting an end to its expansion and influence . The hostility of the Iranian regime seems a common feature for many of those around Donald Trump, noting the staff of his administration began drafting a strategy to address not only the Iranian transit project from Iraq to Syria to Bahrain and Lebanon to reach Yemen. But – the same extent of its importance – to address the most important pillar in this project which is the principle of the creation of parallel military forces of the army of the state along the lines of «Revolutionary Guards in Iran and« popular crowd »in Iraq and« Hezbollah »in Lebanon and various militia which are linked to the « Revolutionary Guards »and« Qods »operating in Syria. This a remarkable and radical transformation in the new US policy.
As well as European and regional powers struggling to trim its fingers in the region and reduce its influence, so it has become to change all of its calculations for the US response than it was in the era of Barack Obama. It must review the tactic of harassment of US naval troops, and forget about the incident of seizing of American boats in January 2016, and the silence of Washington to humiliate its seamen .
It has been past less than a month d for the rule of Donald Trump of the United States of America and indicators suggest that there is a shift in US foreign policy towards the Iranian regime. There is a complete break with the previous administration’s policy. Many analysts passes on the expression «playing with fire» to conclude from it that it is just wanting to escalation or threat by Trump, but «Playing With Fire» in fact is a very characterization of what the Iranian regime is doing in the region, it does not stop to set fire where he found a foothold, and it works with all his effort to broaden the range of fire as far as he could , and sees this as a way to impose his presence and extending his influence on the impact of chaos and destruction. Or is the American President Donald Trump will be honest for the each of slogans he raised and the promises he made in his election campaign with respect to the Iranian regime, and will these slogans to be turned into policies that are working to contain the Iranian influence in the region or terminate it or is it just a data which is worthless?
Muammar Faisal Kholi
Translated by: Mudhaffar al-Kusairi
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies