Eyes of the world have focused since ancient times on the Strait of Hormuz, which is a conduit for communication, peace and life among the people, a bridge where tensions and wars are going over it and on which international interests are divided and linked, feeding the world with warmth and energy, and stock markets and money rely on it , as to close it , economies of countries falls down and global bourses are shaken and since the discovery of the bounties of the strait by international powers , its region has become an international affair..
Strait of Hormuz, one of the most important waterways, which connects the east and west, and has great significance in the movement of ships ,it is located in the Arabian Gulf region dividing line between the Arabian Gulf on the one hand, and the waters of the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea and the Indian Ocean on the other hand, the only Marine port for Iraq, Kuwait and Qatar .
The Strait is located between the circles of 25-27 degrees north , and between 55-57 degrees east , and Iran oversees its northern and eastern coast through Bandar Abbas area , the Sultanate of Oman oversees through the Musandam province on its southern and western shore, as well as to the United Arab Emirates which oversees its simple part from the south coast, a length of 104 nautical miles (if measured from the middle of the distance between the two coasts, currently its wide is 525 nautical miles where the line connect the top of Dibba with the area of Dmajh.
Straits includes a number of small uninhabited islands and the biggest of it are the Iranian Qeshm and Arak and Hormuz , in addition to the three UAE islands currently occupied by Iran , the Greater Tunb , Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa, as the width of the strait at its narrowest point 34 km and a depth of 40-50 fathoms, and with a depth of 80 fathoms at the Musandam peninsula of Oman, and the width of the corridors to enter into it and get out of it two nautical miles, and crossed by 20-30 oil tanker per day at the rate of a tanker every six minutes at peak hours , loaded with about 40% of the world’s seaborne oil worldwide.
Highlight the economic importance of the Strait of widening economic activity including the international exchange and trade movement, and the movement of the international economy in maintaining the production and distribution process, and to ensure financial and monetary stability of international markets.
Strait of Hormuz is a lifeline for most of the world due to its historical importance and its current and future as an economic and commercial corridor connecting among international markets.
The importance of its geographical location , political and economic terms, as a breather for the Gulf States, and Iran, oil exporters, which has the largest oil reserves in the world, as the export through it the entire production of oil, and imports of which 90% of its needs.
Strait has an equal important for the major industrialized nations, as it represents the basis of the economic and political stability, and in the forefront of those countries and the United States, and the European countries, Japan and China.
And the discovery of oil led to increase the strategic importance of the strait because of the large oil reserves in the region, which most of it is exported a cross the strait, and the political crises that have occurred in the region pushed countries to reduce their dependence on the Strait, with the help of extension of pipelines to export oil, but it remained of limited impact, especially for the import of services and technology and weapons, as the strait remains the subject of a strategic bet between the major powers.
The former Soviet Union was seeking to reach the strait to achieve its objectives to control the region ‘s oil, while the United States launched their fleets in the Indian Ocean and the Arabian Gulf waters for the same purpose, and has worked to forge closer political, trade and military ties with countries in the region to ensure their access to oil resources and supervision on its supply ways from the Strait of Hormuz , which considered it as a part of its national security , considering that the secure of the freedom of navigation is a very important issue, especially it is the most important way for the oil supply which is vital artery for the US economy .
There are more than 10 large oil tankers to exit from the Arabian Gulf daily through the Strait of Hormuz, while enters through which a similar number of empty oil tankers that the tankers are carrying no less than 20% of daily global demand for oil, the equivalent of 40% of the global oil trade .
And any disability of Shipping will have a direct impact on global oil prices. (There are a few but growing number of tankers transporting liquefied natural gas, where the demand for gas is increased , particularly in Asia, where the State of Qatar is the largest exporter of liquefied natural gas in the world).
The legal status of the Straits : in the year 1947 after the establishment of United Nations , several international organizations have emerged concerned with marine affairs such as the United Nations organization for Food and Agriculture FAO, and about fishing and IMO omi with competence in the regulation of maritime navigation, and in accordance with international law for the Convention on the Law of the Sea in 1982, which was not signed by the United States, not ratified by Iran, so far, which did not prove a clear law to regulate navigation in the strait, which opens the way for interpretations and different interpretations about the legal system of free traffic in the strait, so different interpretations were shown between time and other time that would raise tension and confrontation in the Gulf.
The importance of the strait for Iran:
The strait of Hormuz is a vital artery for Iran which do not own the waterfront on the Caspian Sea (Closed Sea can not link Iran to other seas ), it owns other naval interface on the Gulf of Oman and the Arabian Sea, a length of 635 nautical miles, but far from the economic activity, but Iran Coast overlooking the Arabian Gulf, it is the one who is a vital lifeline for the export of oil and the import of services and technology and weapons and everything it needs , from other materials, and the most important ports: Abadan and kharj.
Iran is seeking to find alternatives to the strait in order to dominate the region without hurting its economy, but in the current situation is not able at all, to cover the economic costs related to the strategic ambition in the Caspian Sea, in particular the financing of the Caspian pipeline , which passes through its territory to the Arabian Gulf, and It is not able to allocate large sums of money to invest in it, and this is due to the massive costs destined to finance domestic weapons production projects and the purchase of weapons from abroad, in addition to its work on building a base of military capabilities of non – conventional ones (nuclear reactors), without forgetting the effects of economic sanctions imposed on Tehran , which the closure of the Strait of Hormuz led to make it worse noting that Iran exports 90% of its oil through the Strait of Hormuz, and as the Iranian economy depends on petro dollars, the closure of the waterway would harm Iran ‘s first, knowing that the United States and its allies are still impose further sanctions on Iran ‘s energy sector and the financial sector.
On the other hand, the closure of the Strait of Hormuz would affect Iran in place policies to avoid the US threat base on its oil industry since Iran to import 370 thousand barrels per day of oil from Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan and Turkmenistan through a pipeline network of Neka-Rey, for its domestic consumption in exchange for the export of 370 thousand barrels per day of oil fields in the Gulf, and therefore the closure of the strait would negatively affect Iran ‘s relations and Caspian states, especially that these countries are still after independence from the Soviet Union living in difficult circumstances and the situation of security is not disciplined, and therefore it need to invest its oil wealth with active partners through them , the Caspian Sea states can to achieve its security at all levels , and thus process of closing the strait would affect the oil trade – off between Iran and the Caspian Sea process, pushing these countries to find new partners and more secure ways .
In the same context , political analysts pointed out, that the Iranian threat is no more than a review in front of the Gulf states, and an attempt to prove the military and political presence at the same time, especially that Tehran is trying to provoke Washington by these moves that could lead to new sanctions against it.
They noted that the Iranian concern of US President Trump’s remarks pushed it to think and prudence and evaluate things before embarking on such a move as Tehran knew well the US react on them, which is likely the hypothesis that the real aim of the announcement of the attempt of the Iranian control over the Strait of Hormuz is not more from propaganda to prove its sovereignty over the strait or the ability to impose sovereignty at any time and whether the Iranian move as a matter of political propaganda, or send messages to reflect the ability to impose its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz and the Arabian Gulf and whenever it wishes.
And an Iranian oil exports through the Straits of 90% , China ‘s imports from it about 22%, although the oil trade with Iran , which is rather large that it did not hesitate to approve the sanctions because it aware of the fact that Iran ‘s ability to meet their needs of oil is declined , so China resorted to a variety of oil purchases from Saudi Arabia, passing through Russia, Kazakhstan and Sudan, it has proceeded to the establishment of a strategic program to store enough oil for a month of its general consumption , and three months of military consumption.
Japan imports about 14% of Iranian oil, India 13%, and South Korea 10%, in addition to other Asian countries that depend on Iranian oil in varying proportions.
With all that Iran is using the threat as a ghost to threaten the economic world to close the strait over its nuclear program.
United States policy toward the Straits:
US commanders assert since Desert Storm , the importance of oil shipments that represent to them the stability of the global economy, and for the vital interests of the United States in the Gulf region, the Commander in Chief of US Central Command( centcom) Gen. HJ Binford said that the unlimited flow of oil materials from the friendly Gulf states to refineries and processing facilities around the world is the one who drives the global economic machine.
And in line with this vision , US increases its forces in the Gulf and has taken other steps to protect friendly forces in the region, and at the same time Washington boosted its ability to intervene in the Caspian Sea nevertheless the Strait of Hormuz and closing it will affect US interests in the Arab Gulf region and specially the latter relies on it heavily.
And this will reflect positively on Washington in the Caspian region, because it will enhance the western transport pipeline of oil wealth , and gas of the Caspian Sea, and thus Turkey will become a safer roads and more stable countries in the region , and will push the Caspian Sea states to stop dealings with Iran because close the Strait of Hormuz will undoubtedly be the start point of a war between the United States and Iran in the Middle East ,.
And the closure of the strait could lead to involve the Caspian Sea States in this confrontation between the United States and Iran , especially Azerbaijan as well as Turkey (linked to the transatlantic alliance with the United States), with the possibility of other regional powers intervention that have ambitions in the region and we mean here , Russia, China, which would intervene in order to protect its interests or maximize it by exploiting this situation to their advantage, in addition to Israel , the strategic ally of America in the Arabian Gulf and the Caspian Sea region . Israel is working to penetrate inside these republics through the Jewish communities in the region and strengthen the military and security cooperation with it, especially in Azerbaijan and Kazakhstan, and thus the conflict between the United States and Iran in the Caspian Sea is affected by what happens in the Middle East.
Add to that influenced by the rest of the regional and international powers such as Russia, China, Israel and NATO, and therefore, these forces are the strongest ever in the world, where the military expenditures of the United States of America , China and Russia all together were estimated in 2012 to 938.7 billion dollars, representing a 53.7 percent of the military expenditures in the world.
And therefore, these regional and international powers play a big role in determining the future of the current ongoing conflict between the United States and Iran in the Caspian Sea conflict.
The US strategy since World War II, the attempt to control the waterways, especially the most important strait “Hormuz”, which represents a strategic focus of the US presence in itself.
If we go back a little bit of history, we will find that the United States is seeking always to preserve its interests in the Middle East, especially the vital economic interests in the region in particular. In 1867 one of the American officers (Alfred Mahan) visited Muscat, as he said then Middle East area is the most important regions in the world, and to control it requires a great navy force and no way to do this only when control of the Arabian Gulf, and Iran realized the importance of the strait and oil on the international economy in the time of Shah Reza Pahlavi, prompting it to take control of UAE islands (Greater Tunb, the Lesser Tunb and Abu Musa) and appointed Iran itself as the policeman of the Gulf, as Iran was under the Shah the strongest allies of the United States of America in the face of the Communist tide.
Today , in light of the new statements of US policy against Iran on stopping its nuclear program , which has implications for the security of the Arabian Gulf and the Strait of Hormuz area specifically.
And reflected on the tension of US military bases deployed in most of the Arabian Gulf, and on a permanent military presence of the United States in the Indian Ocean, the US fleets do not leave the region and the US administration is working to promote it.
For its part , Iran is working to strengthen its naval base at Bandar Abbas , overlooking on the strait, and conducted a number of military exercises in the area to stir up tension, for regional stability and security of the region. And all of this are a threat, messages and pressure paper addressed to the United States and the Gulf States , to show the possibility of Iran to close the Strait but the fact is on the contrary noting that Iran is the primary beneficiary of the strait, in the case closure would destroy its economy and the life within it before other countries.
Strait of Hormuz and the interests of the Gulf states:
GCC economies heavily dependent on oil revenues that are available from the possibility of building projects to meet the general needs of the state, and meet other citizens requirements, and of Iran’s exports through the Strait of Hormuz 90% of its oil, and Saudi Arabia, about 88%, or about 6 million barrels a day, but Saudi Arabia has coastline on the Red Sea with a length of 1020 nautical miles; thereby reducing the risk of dependence on the strait.
Iraq and Hormuz:
Iraq ‘s oil exports constitutes through the Strait of Hormuz the proportion of 98%, and the most important thing here that Iraq will depend on the rate of more than 94% of total revenues on the source of oil, and in the case of closing it, it will lead to the loss of more than 80% of its revenues being export via the Turkish port of Ceyhan 500,000 barrels per day and two million barrels through the Strait of Hormuz, making oil production rates and prices are the control process for implementing the goals of the budget.
Iraq , which does not have access to the sea to the Gulf only ten miles across the Shatt al – Arab, it would be the biggest losers in the event of the closure of the straits as a result of the huge drop in oil revenues that drives the economic life of all aspects of the daily life of the citizen and the state, and here we must search in earnest way for a quick alternatives to reduce the potential effects of the crisis that could be plaguing Iraq in addition to its current economic crises; exacerbating the problem of unemployment and a lack of liquidity and the recession and the inability to pay salaries of the staff.
Oil , which is in Iraq , the foundation of life must be invested in the development plans and programs for Development to overcome the crises that may take place in the region and directly affect the economic life and to deal with potential crises by placing a conscious and responsible plans to diversify its sources of income in the Iraqi economy, and set up committees comprising specialists in the field of economy and oil, trade and foreign affairs to find the realistic alternatives, and the development of new export outlets for such as lines of transport to be built toward Syria , and to negotiate the line that goes to Saudi Arabia to reduce risks that threaten Iraqi exports.
Emirates exports through the strait 99% of its oil production equivalent to 23 million barrels, which is the only entrance L13 for commercial and military ports through which passes more than 55% of the imports of commercial Gulf, Qatar , 100%, and Kuwait , 100%, and Bahrain export million and 88,000 barrels Daily .
The Arab oil features are : easy to find, and low cost, abundant production, the strategic location of the wells.
It is clear of what is mentioned above that the Strait is of great importance to the countries of the world; it is crossing waterway for the Petroleum of some of it , and has high economic and strategic status , but the dependency ratio will vary between countries of the size of exports and imports, for example , Iraq did not possess waterfront that it overseeing the Gulf through the Shatt al – Arab, while Qatar , Kuwait, and Bahrain depends on it by 100% and be influenced directly by any small or big political and military events , .
The importance was increased due to the fact that the Gulf states contain the world ‘s biggest oil reserves , it contains a:
60% of global oil reserves and 70% of the Arab world reserves, and 90% of Japanese consumption, it is really an oil depot, as the Strait of Hormuz , constitutes the main driving factor for the largest economies in the world.
And increasingly important as modern statistics and studies, as by expectations of increases of oil production:
1990 production was 18.7 million barrels
in 2010 production was 283 million barrels
in 2020 is expected to be 368 million barrels of production.
This gives great importance to the Strait and perhaps political pressure exerted against each for the economic interests of their own countries.
In light of the growing demand for oil, and the pursuit of nations for more oil reserves steadily rising, competition and conflict between the United States and Iran have increased, undermining international peace and security in the region, and the impact on the existing market economies now.
Shatha Khalil
Unit Economic Studies
translated by : Mudhaffar al-Kusairi
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies