Muammar Faisal Kholi *
The huge mosque represents, which the Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan ordered to be built on the top of one of the highest hills of the city of Istanbul on which his supporters are hoping to be a referendum on constitutional amendments on tomorrow, “Sunday”, the culmination of his quest to change Turkey.
Turkey is on a date with the most popular referendum in its contemporary history, where more than 55 million voters will go (specifically 55 million and 336 thousand and 960 voters) to the polls to cast their votes on constitutional amendment centered on converting the system of governance in the Turkish state from a parliamentary political system to a presidential.
The ballot will bring about the biggest change in the system of governance in their country since the founding of modern Turkish republic on the ruins of the Ottoman Empire nearly a century ago.
Turkey witnessed in its history six referendums on the constitutions or constitutional amendments, the first is a referendum on a new constitution in 1961 (after a year of the military coup ) and the most recent is the referendum in 2007 which approved the election of the president by the people directly, and perhaps it has prepared Turkey for the current moment: the idea of a presidential system and a referendum of voters on it , It is the most important and most dangerous referendum that will change much for the future of Turkey.
The ruling Justice and Development Party in Turkey consider this referendum as a popular consultation that its performance has been delayed, while opponents see a coup against the principles of the republic founded by Kemal Ataturk.
Referendum comes in the internal and external difficult circumstances, the government is waging a relentless war against Fethullah Gulen group, accused of being behind a failed coup attempt in the past year, in addition to the attacks of the organization Daesh and the PKK.
The referendum is expected to be a major turning point on the internal and external level of Turkey, especially on foreign policy.
The Turkish voter puts in mind the result of the referendum, which is expected after it a solution to many of the internal problems, in addition to the Turkish foreign policy will be reshaped again based on the outcome of the referendum. Turkish foreign policies have seen significant shifts in the past, most recently the great disagreement with the European Union.
The essence of it is the cultural pluralism, which continues to dominate the European social policy noting that the response of some European leaders towards the quest of the Turkish leadership to communicate with communities abroad is based on a misunderstanding, hostility and lack of willingness to accept the other peculiarities of the belief that the eastern and the Eurasian countries have a different culture, and perhaps the different way of thinking and behavior.
The fact that Europe sees these differences as non-democratic ones to prove that it is not prepared for more diverse forms of democracy.
There are several factors that influence the development of the opinion of the Turkish voters in this referendum, perhaps the most important is the political and party affiliation of them, although the occasion is not parliamentary or presidential elections.
Followed by the attitude towards President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, where an opinion poll conducted by the company (A & G) two months ago that 70% of those who would vote in favor of the constitutional amendment will do so as a trust for Erdogan, while 30% of those who would vote against it said that they will do so because Erdogan support it.
Certainly, there are other factors affecting the decision of the Turkish voter, such as the area of his geographic residence and the level of education and the extent of his awareness of the respondent material, but what is more important than it seems the economic situation in the country ahead of the referendum and the security situation ahead of the ballot and which, the areas in which some parties are trying traditionally to play on it to affect the opinion of the voter.
Here are five specific reasons to explain the adoption of the constitutional amendments in the next referendum:
- No guarantees of the opposition to Turkey’s accession to the European Union
All reports issued by the European Union between 2004 and 2014 on Turkey’s accession provide openly and generously on the role played by Erdogan and his government in the democratization of the Turkish institutions.
In 2006, for example, the European Union welcomed the report to allow the Kurds to exercise freely their cultural and educational rights.
In 2007, the latest report welcomed the fact that democracy prevailed in that year facing the army’s attempts to interfere in the political process and acknowledged the progress made by public institutions and civil society organizations on the protection of women from violence.
In 2014, the report praised the government’s program for the establishment of democracy, and welcomed the establishment of new institutions that protect the rights and freedoms of individuals.
In 2015, the European Parliament welcomed the adoption of the plan of action to prevent violations of the European Convention on Human Rights as an important step towards the harmonization of the Turkish legal framework with the Convention.
Given the years of reports that recognize the achievements of Erdogan and his government, the European countries really need to work hard now to convince Turkish voters that the same progress that they reached and recognized by European countries has been reversed.
So when Erdogan tells his people that the European Union is delaying Turkey’s accession to it, his comment is believable because he was very close to achieving accession, which was rejected by German Chancellor Angela Merkel and French President then Nicolas Sarkozy, so if Merkel lost the elections in her country, Erdogan would be able to begin a new and more realistic beginning in this regard.
- The opposition does not have a plan to improve Turkey’s economy
Although the Turkish economy is going through a strong storm, the lira value is of an unprecedented decline against the dollar, but there is a lack of confidence in any other person to manage the situation better.
During the recent elections, Erdogan has managed to keep his popularity largely because of its ability to maintain the country’s economic growth and protect it from the global economic crisis in 2008.
There is no indication that the Turks have lost their confidence in his ability to manage the economy, as any of the protesters offered no attractive alternatives in the short and medium term, there is still Erdogan and his party’s best hope for them.
With the continued normalization of Turkey with Russia and Israel, there are hopes that tourism will be flourished this summer, and the small investors and business communities and major business groups concerned about any impact may occur if the referendum fails.
Turkish Foreign relations are shaped now in a way in which its trade volume and diversity are expanding outside Europe and China. Turkey has achieved in its trade with the Gulf States, a surplus of $ 85 billion between 2012 and 2015. At the summit of the Economic Cooperation Organization, held recently in Islamabad, Turkey has sought to increase the volume of trade with the countries of Central Asia.
With the economy less dependent on Europe, Turkey has got a better influence of bargaining with the European Union.
- Erdogan’s confidence in the improvement of the security situation
Because of repeated terrorist attacks in the country in recent years, we find that the most important issue facing the Turks now is the security situation.
Most voters believe that the Kurdish armed groups in Syria, Turkey, the state organization and al-Qaeda network Fethullah Gulen are responsible
for the Terrorist attacks since 2015, and the Turks looks at the US and European support for Kurdish militants in Syria with big suspicions .
However, the current government has sent several messages stating that the current government can go ahead with the defeat of the organization of the state without relying on US support, and it came to an apology of CIA officially to Turkey on claims made in 2014 on oil trading between Ankara and the organization of the state.
- Erdogan has a proven track record in Syria
Turkey was on the verge of indulging in the Syrian war badly, but Erdogan has taken a series of corrective measures, including the normalization of relations with Russia and the appointment of a new prime minister more flexibility in foreign policy than his predecessor, Ahmet Davutoglu.
Are the Turks really rejecting Erdogan’s Syrian policy? After increasing the Turkish-Russian cooperation in Syria, their confidence in the leadership of Ordogan has been increased. Turkey has provided a safe heaven to three million Syrian refugees despite the fact that the refugee agreement between the EU and Turkey arrived practically to a standstill.
- Voters are more interested in the “Strong Turkey” than “democratic Turkey”
There was always consensus among the Turks that the Constitution of 1982, which was drafted and approved by the leaders of the military coup that year, should be changed completely. But no political party was able to since then to achieve a large majority enough to start this process. If approved, the referendum would achieve this change in the end.
The constitutional referendum in Turkey to be held tomorrow on “Sunday” is a milestone and a very important event in the history of contemporary Turkey and it would be influential in the political situation not only in the vicinity of Turkey, but also in the entire Middle East. Turkey is a strong and important actor in regional events.
The referendum is not just a government reform model, the shift from the parliamentary Republic to presidential republic. It is also a way of shift in the political experience gathered by Turkey in the twentieth century.
In the case of the approval of the Turkish people on the package of constitutional amendments, the Turkish state has made great strides towards the constitution after the Kemalism; the Constitution is characterized by multiple identities, and respect for individual life and the rule of civilian authority over the military patterns.
Rule after the Kemalism model will keep the nation-state system, and recognizes ethnic pluralism, and respects secularism and re-define it freely, so as not to impose a particular point of view on the citizens.
This does not necessarily denounce Kemalism “as an idea,” but lets people choose from a range of ideas available in an environment of freedom of ideas. Maybe people adopt some ideas if they so choose, but the state must remain neutral and be the basis for consensus .
The era of intellectual states have come to an end.
There is a need now to States that provide services and protection to their people, not ideas or lifestyles. In short, the adoption of the constitutional amendments will pave by a referendum tomorrow “Sunday” for the Republic after the Kemalism to consolidate democracy and the consolidation of civilian control over the military establishment, re-definition of secularism, and resolving the intractable Kurdish question .
Translated by: Mudhaffar al-Kusairi
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies