With the approach of the military settlement of the Battle of Mosul, which began in October17 last year, to the organization of Daesh who practiced the most heinous crimes in Iraq, killing civilians and genocide crimes against the defenseless innocent people and targeted everyone, without distinction of their religions and sects and ethnicities, the Iraqi – American military effort is growing against sites of that organization in Iraq’s western areas adjacent to the Syrian border.
Daesh controls on three vital areas in western Anbar, they are Ana, Rawa and Qaim, and are the last strongholds in the Western Sahara, involving Iraq with Syria and Jordan. The organization also has a direct impact on some parts of the international road, which disables the restart of this most important and vital artery in that area.
It is seen to the district of Qaim as the focal point where families of the leaders of the organization are gathering, and as it is the largest Daesh weapon stores in the country, according to intelligence estimates. In view of the large desert area where the last strongholds of Daesh are spread in western Anbar, the restoration of it from the organization of Daesh requires large forces, and air effective cover.
And the organization will continue to retain pockets under his control in Hawija and Shirqat in Salahuddin province, but Iraqi forces saw not a priority of directing a military effort there because the restoration of Mosul and western Anbar will make those pockets are fallen in its hand where elements of Daesh will be encircled and isolated from supply completely.
It is expected that the district of Qaim on the Syrian border to be the site of the last battle with the organization Daesh on the land of Iraq.
The large increase in the number of American soldiers serving in Iraq, did not come from a vacuum. In practice, the US military completed all the requirements for the establishment of a temporary military base near the Rutba area, which lies about 400 kilometers west of the city of Ramadi, the center of Anbar province, and this base will form a center for the operations aims at securing the international road linking Iraq with both Jordan and Syria. Fighters of Hezbollah and Brigades of the Badr Organization, the pro- Iran, dominated on large parts of the international road in particular the main joints linking the capital of Baghdad to Anbar province. The US military will also seek to contain a plan implemented by the popular crowd, and aims at the establishment of camps in three locations in the vicinity of Al-Anbar province, from the eastern and western north and western sides.
So the administration of President Donald Trump shows a keen interest in participating in the battles of western Anbar against al-Daesh to achieve multiple targets to Washington first is the propaganda to ensure for the Administration of the new US president, Donald Trump the marketing of his image as a firm fighter against terrorism.
And the United States ensures by the participation in the war in western Iraq and eastern Syria to get foothold which lost it due to the decline of its role during the reign of the previous administration led by Barack Obama, in exchange for the progress of the Iranian and Russian roles. The most important to participate in the final phase of the war is to ensure that Washington to play a role in arranging the situation of the region afterwards including the redrawing the map of influence there.
The military effort of the Administration of US President Donald Trump aims, concentrated on Iraq, in parallel with its engagement increasingly in the war on Daesh in its last phase , to provide the appropriate environment for the participation of the United States of America actively in the arrangement of their positions in Iraq after Daesh and re-distribution map of influence within it in the direction of minimizing the Iranian role and limits its effects.
In the context of that map , US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson directed heavy criticism for Iran, stressing the change the policy of “strategic patience” on them, which means that the region is coming in the next phase on a much stronger cycle of the conflict between Washington and Tehran, Iraq will be its major arena, which will push Iran to re-employment the most reliable followers, including Maliki, who was abandoned earlier in line with the Obama administration, which deprived him of a third term at the head of the government. Following a visit by the son-in- law of US President Donald Trump and his adviser Jared Kouchner to Iraq, Iran changed clearly the compass of its policy toward the re-activation of the role of al-Maliki, through its support for his candidacy for prime ministry in general elections scheduled for the beginning of 2018, as said by one of the leaders of a coalition of law state .
The US level of commitment towards Iraq beyond the 2011 was modest, which reflected positively on the Iranian interests in Iraq, where Iran has enjoyed with closer and more diverse and comprehensive relations with Iraq and more than what is enjoyed by the United States or any other country in the region where Iran has been able to extend its influence to ensure its status as a foreign highest power in Iraq which was reflected negatively on the American influence throughout the region and on US efforts to deter and contain Iran, which is acting decisively and increasingly .
In this context, the growing military effort comes in preparation for the battle of western Anbar to avoid such a possibility, and the promotion of American interests, through participation in a wide range of diplomatic, economic, informational, military aspects, and facing Iran’s approach, seeking full control of the government, with an approach in which Iraq itself controls the government, ensuring the stability of Iraq in the present and the future.
The policy of the US administration of Iraq after Daesh, “one Iraq” because strategically the Region of Kurdistan constitutes an ally more useful in reducing Iranian influence in the region when it is part of Iraq, rather than being a small country is heavily dependent on friendly relations with its neighbors .
In the case of the failure of diplomatic effort of the United States of America in Iraq and to take advantage of the gains made in the war against Daesh, including increased cooperation between Erbil and Baghdad, it could push local officials from both sides to take responsibility and work independently in order to find solutions. And that this failure may lead to the failure of future negotiations that are full of challenging because in the absence of a strong, neutral intermediary, the security dilemmas will arise naturally in environment deprived of the mechanism of accountability and ways to prevent abuses. Time will only clarify that, but one thing is clear that difficult times are to come.
The Iraqi Studies Unit
Translated by: Mudhaffar al-Kusairi
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies