Muammar Faisal Kholi *
Massoud Barzani’s decision , the President of the Kurdistan region of Iraq to hold a referendum on “secession” from Iraq, on 25 of the current September raised negative reactions , from most of the parties of the international community, and many Western and regional countries described , the overwhelming majority originally opposes the referendum , a step of Barzani that it is not correct. Essentially, Baghdad is, at the top of the rejectionists, as Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi confirmed that the holding of the referendum will complicate matters rather than resolving the outstanding problems between his government and Erbil. Abadi sees that the referendum is “unconstitutional”, and that the region “is part of Iraq, the Kurds are citizens of the first class, and will stay like this.” Iraqi Foreign Minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari also said, during a meeting with the negotiating team recently in connection of the issue of referendum , that the referendum “is not in the interest of the unity of Iraq, which has just came out of a global war against the terrorist organization Daesh.” “We have not heard from any country in the world, in support of a step of referendum, and everyone believe that the unity of Iraq is important for the stability of the region.” Stressing that the “separation is not in the interests of any one, and we respect the opinion of the Kurdish citizen, provided that it is within the Constitution.” In this context, the media office of the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi announced that the government would not abide by the results of the referendum on the independence of the Kurdistan region, noting that Baghdad does not want to engage in “internal conflict”. The spokesman of al-Abadi office saad al-Hadithi said in an interview with radio station “Sputnik” that” the independence sought by the Kurdistan region is illegal and unconstitutional step, and this corresponds with the vision of the Iraqi government to maintain the unity of the country.”
The Kurdish scene attracts, which turned into an important regional player after its successes in the fight against «Daesh» in Syria and Iraq, the attention of the regional and international powers. Here, it is clear that Israel seems the most enthusiastic state for a Kurdish state, as already a number of its leaders declared their support for the establishment of such a state. As for Moscow, it does not show any official position on this matter, in light of its strategic alliance with Tehran in Syria, and its engagement with the beginning of this year in bilateral oil dealings with Iraqi Kurdistan. On the other side, the opposition of the international community and some of the regional powers are increasing. In this context, the United Nations did not welcome the move, as it indicated that it would not have a role in the referendum on independence. On the other hand, the US Secretary of State, Rex Tillerson asked from Barzani, during a telephone conversation took place between them, the postponement of the referendum, and urged him to continue the dialogue with Baghdad. While the spokeswoman of the US State Department , Heather Noert said , they support a unified Iraq and stable, considering that such a referendum, removal of all parties for the priority of the elimination of the “state regulation” .And she described the referendum as “an internal Iraqi affair,” confirmed her country’s support for ” a unified, stable and democratic Iraq. ” she added that ” we have friends in the north (in the Kurdish region), and we have also, friends within the Iraqi government; but we should first, to defeat al Daesh, following the achievement of this goal, the referendum can be discussed later.” For the European Union, it urged in a statement issued, the Kurdish region, to move away from taking unilateral steps. The European bloc stressed on its support for the unity of the Iraqi territory, and resolve the outstanding problems, according to the Constitution and through dialogue. The German position of the referendum expressed by Foreign Minister Sigmar Gabriel, saying that his country was “deeply concerned” about the Kurdish region’s statements concerning the conduct of a “referendum for secession” from Iraq. Gabriel said that “the only thing that can be done in this regard, is the warning from taking unilateral step” .and he sees that “endangering Iraq’s unity at risk, and even the desire to draw new borders, is not a proper way , this will increase the difficult and unstable situation in Erbil and Baghdad. ” He called on all parties for dialogue, saying, “We have to solve problems by consensus, and not to inflame differences.”
The position of direct neighboring countries, “Syria, Iran and Turkey,” for the Kurdistan region , they are refusing to conduct a step of referendum; the government of Damascus sees that the Kurds carry out an American plan , after Washington lost important papers in Syria, the decline of armed groups loyal to it , and the Syrian regime , thanks to Russian support , restored an important sector of the land and border crossings and ports that are lost with the start of the militarization of the Syrian crisis. For Tehran, it believes that the vote will accelerate the progress of Kurdistan towards full independence, an event considered a challenge not only to the Iranian stability, but also to its regional ambitions. The announcement by the “Kurdistan Regional Government” about the date of the referendum raised responses directly from a number of senior Iranian officials, including Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei. Khamenei expressed his objection to the referendum and reiterated Iran’s commitment to the territorial integrity of Iraq, at a meeting with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi in Tehran. Iran threatens to impose a number of sanctions against the regime including to cut the border ports.
Turkey expressed earlier its rejection of the referendum, where the president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan said that “his country does not consider this move to be true, and we informed the Government of the region so “. And he added “they will regret for this step, because (Massoud) Barzani and the Government of the region are not yet ready to this stage, and this step is contrary to the principle of unity of Iraqi territory”. And Erdogan sees “in the case that the region attempts to secede from Iraq, it will not be the last, but other parties after that will demand the same thing.”For his part, Turkish Prime Minister, Ben Ali Yildirim described the decision of the Kurdish region as” irresponsible “in light of crises in the region. Yildirim said Ankara’s position is clear and explicit on this issue, it wants the unity of the Iraqi territory, and that the Iraqi people live together, under the roof of one state. Then, Yildirim adds, “We believe that it is not the right to bring about a new problem in the region, because there are enough problems in it.” In its turn, the Turkish Foreign Ministry, described the Kurdish region’s decision regarding to conduct a referendum to secede from Iraq as “grave mistake.” And the foreign ministry confirmed in a statement, that the preservation of the integrity of Iraq’s territorial and political unity is on the top of the priorities of Turkish foreign policy. According to the statement, Ankara transferred its concern and its position on the organization of the referendum to the central government in Baghdad and the Kurdish region, and the most active states in the international community. It stressed that the referendum for the secession would not be in the interest of Iraq, just as it would not also be in favor of the Kurdish region. The reason for the Turkish position to reject the referendum comes from the realization of the Turkish government that the referendum represents an incentive for Turkey’s Kurds, who are engaged in an open confrontation with the regime since the eighties of the last century, caused the lives of nearly fifty thousand citizens. In the context of this realization Ankara threatened to stop exporting oil of Kurdistan through its territory. But the question that arises in this context, why do neighboring countries, especially Iran, Turkey reject the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan?
The Iranian republic has a large Kurdish minority of its own. Its survival and territorial integrity is linked to the continuity of the control of Shiite majority on the country. Therefore, the ruling elite in Tehran considers any requirement of a national framework is a challenge of its political system and internal cohesion. As a result, Tehran has either ignore or respond harshly to the demands of the Iranian Kurdish social, cultural and political rights. The Iranian Kurds have suffered, most of them Sunnis, from economic difficulties and political exclusion under the Shiite regime. The Iranian Republic fears that the establishment of an independent Kurdish state in Iraq to form a source of inspiration for secession in Iranian Kurdistan, or at least to support the disgruntled Iranian Kurds in the pursuit of autonomy and demanding the Iranian government for more rights . From the point of view of Iran, it could in turn lead to the destabilization of the Iranian regime in Iranian Kurdistan and ultimately harm the Iranian Republic as a whole. And worry those who are in power of the political system in the Republic of Iran and the change of the Kurdish designs to get out of Iraq may affect the regional balance of power against its strategic interests. Tehran believes that Kurdish independence will lead to the final disintegration of Iraq on the national and sectarian bases as follows: a central Sunni Arab state, a Kurdish state in the north, an Arab Shiite state in the south and Tehran considers the establishment of a Sunni Arab state in the midst of Iraq is a strategic disaster, as it is likely to be dominated by the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. It can therefore jeopardize the land corridor established by Tehran over the past four years, which connects Iran’s regional allies in Syria and Lebanon through the Iraqi territory. The establishment of a Kurdish state in northern Iraq constitutes a victory for the United States and Israel and all regional and international adversaries of Tehran.
The Turkish Republic is a multi-ethnic state and the Kurdish nationalism is the most important ones after the Turanian nationalism “Turkish” and the estimated percentage of Kurds in Turkey, approximately 20% of the citizens, ie they increase to 12 million or 13 million. The Kurds are divided (sectarian) between Sunni (70%, mostly Shafiites) and between the Alawites (30%) with a minority estimated at approximately 10-20 thousand Yezidis (or Alazidiin). They talk all Alqurmanah language (ie known Kurdish). And the traditional methods are active in their ranks. Therefore, the Turkish government rejects the referendum for internal reasons primarily, they are afraid of the repercussions of this separation on its territorial integrity, security and stability due to the presence of Kurds on its territory, – who are engaged in an open war with the Turkish state since the eighties of the last century-. It is likely also to call for secession in the future if the Kurdistan region managed to secede from Iraq through the referendum.
On the other hand Ankara is no longer to believe in projects of Washington in the region, Washington betrayed Ankara as it did not take into account its fears of arming Syria’s democratic forces and their support in the battle of Al-Riqqa against “Daesh” while ignoring all calls for Turkish help and plans to enter with it in the battle of al-Riqqa to the side of the Syrian opposition . Perhaps Ankara now sees the US projects that they take into account their interests more than the interests of its regional allies such as Turkey, after it was shown in support of Kurdish forces in al-Riqqa in Syria to provide all kinds of support for them at the expense of Turkish interests. So now Ankara violates Washington’s policy in the region and is not compatible with it, after it realized that the White House is only looking for its interests, and that US assurances to the region are fake and unrealistic, the project of separation in Iraq is coming in the opinion of analysts, and countries such as Turkey and Iran have to seek its interests and prevent this to occur.
It is not expected from Ankara to exert any flexibility in its position towards the referendum and it will keep stressing to abolish this decision and the visit of Mohammed Baqari to Turkey to confirm this consensus between the two countries ‘ which share the same fears of the secession of the region, as it represents a red line for them that undermines the security and stability of the two countries in the long term.
Despite the difficulty of passing the referendum, and the establishment of a viable Kurdish state in light of the reluctance of regional powers and preserve Washington and Western powers, the Kurdistan region’s leaders believe that a step of referendum is important and timely, due to the rise of the Kurdish paper regionally, after the pivotal role in the fight against the organization «Daesh» in Syria and Iraq, but without taking into account that this step will be followed by steps, and sustained regional and international reactions that may seek to obstruct the referendum or at least postpone it , since the independence of the region may make it a thorn in the side of the surrounding countries.
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies