The ongoing crisis between the federal government in Iraq and the KRG resulted in the loss of the latter much of the land, oil and power that began to acquire after the overthrow of Saddam Hussein in 2003. In the region, Kurdish leaders lose their legitimacy and generally the political leadership of the Kurdistan Regional Government bears the responsibility for the calamities it faces. The Kurdistan Regional Government lost the international support it enjoyed in the past due to a referendum on independence whose consequences were underestimated by Kurdish leaders who insisted to conduct it despite American opposition. The referendum of the independence of the Iraqi Kurds was turned to , which Barzani strongly stood behind it , a losing gamble after it was based on inaccurate calculations and misreading of the international situation, specifically the American, where the leader of the Kurdistan Democratic Party expected that Washington would come to save him in the end in line with the reality imposed by the vote of the Kurds of Iraq intensively in favor of independence, but it was found that the United states had accounts totally contrary to Barzani’s calculations ..
The disgruntled reactions resulting from it had encouraged Iraqi security forces, which gained experience in the battlefields, to remove the Kurdish Peshmerga forces from the territories it has occupied since 2014 and return them to its frontier of 2003. Adding to the pressure on the Kurdistan Regional Government , the ruling Issued by the Supreme Federal Court of Iraq in the current November which ruled that there is no possibility of separation of any area or province of Iraq . Faced with these challenges, the Government of the region can only make concessions to Baghdad, beyond what was considered as a Kurdish constants , reflecting the depth of the crisis that it has faced after the referendum on the independence of the Region , the lack of options and lack of international support.
The Kurdistan Regional Government announced on the current November 14 that it respects the decision of the Federal Supreme Court, which prohibits the secession of the Region from Iraq, and stressed that the court’s decision to establish a national dialogue to resolve differences through the Constitution. The Kurdistan government said in a statement that it welcomes the resolution of differences with the federal authority in constitutional and legal ways, based on its position to welcome all initiatives, particularly the initiative of the Shiite Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani and friendly countries on the return to the Constitution to resolve differences. the statement added “We respect the Supreme Court’s interpretation of article 1 of the Constitution, and at the same time affirm our belief that this should be the basis for initiating a comprehensive national dialogue to resolve differences through constitutional articles as the only way to ensure the unity of Iraq.” The Federal Court confirmed last week that there is no provision in the Iraqi constitution that permits the secession of any component in the country, and said that the interpretation of the first article of the Iraqi constitution «stressed the unity of Iraq, and other articles of the Constitution required all federal authorities to maintain this unity». The article states that the Republic of Iraq is a single, independent, fully sovereign federal state with a democratic parliamentary republic system, and that this constitution guarantees the unity of Iraq.
The Office of Iyad Allawi, Vice President of Iraq, welcomed on Tuesday, to the position of the Kurdistan Regional Government on the decision of the Federal Court. “This position will pave the way for a more open and transparent dialogue ground in favor of Iraq’s common interest first and contribute to finding a solution to all points of contention, which we call upon all parties to start as soon as possible,” he said in a statement. The Iraqi Vice President Osama Najafi welcomed the statement of the Kurdistan Regional Government on the interpretation of the Federal Supreme Court for the first article of the Iraqi Constitution, considering the remarks of the regional government “a development helps to create conditions” for the dialogue between Erbil and Baghdad
“This is an important and clear statement from the provincial government to explain the first article of the constitution,” said the US envoy to the international coalition, Brett McGurk, in his account of Tuter, referring to the Kurdish position and welcome it. His comment came after the publication of a picture of him with the official of foreign relations in the Kurdistan Regional Government, Falah Mustafa, stressing that «a great thing, to meet my old friend, and to discuss the importance and vitality of the strong relationship between Arbil and Washington, within the framework of the Iraqi constitution». The statement, which was considered a major positive shift in the current crisis between Baghdad and Erbil, it is tantamount to implicit recognition by the Kurdistan government of the illegality of the referendum held on September 25. Observers see in the position of the Kurdish government as an accept to the condition of Prime Minister Haider Abadi to cancel the results of the referendum, before engaging in dialogue to resolve differences. The importance of the situation also stems from the declaration of “respect” for the interpretation to hit the dream of establishing the Kurdish state and cancel it, which means that the concessions of Erbil step towards announcing the abandonment of that historic dream in order to get out of the suffocating crisis.
The followers of the Iraqi issue see that the motives of the region in accepting the decision of the Federal Court in Baghdad that the region, after the organization of a referendum where the party of the President of the region Massoud Barzani was strongly behind it , was itself in the case of a suffocating semi-blockade involving Iran and Turkey, and faces a suffocating financial crisis after the cessation of sales of oil Independently from the central government. The financial crisis is one of the motives of major concessions of the Kurdish leadership. The deputy head of the Kurdish parliamentary bloc of change (al-Taghier) Amin Bakr, considered on Tuesday that the draft federal budget for the financial year for the year 2018 “unfair,” calling for payment of dues of the region’s full financial budget of 17 percent in order to address all files between Baghdad and the region, and warned Prime Minister Haider Abadi of ” A big and dangerous mess that of dire consequences “if the draft is not amended. Add to that the regional factor of the refusal of Iran and Turkey to the referendum and their cooperation on the failure of it; this may push the Kurdistan Regional Government to accept the ruling of the Federal Court in Baghdad.
After nearly two months of the referendum in the Kurdistan region , it can be said that the crisis in the Kurdistan region provided a great opportunity for the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider Abadi to complete the image of the strong man and political veteran, which began to draw for him by his successful leadership of the war on the organization of ISIS , while causing the pushing of veteran Kurdish leader Massoud Barzani, Despite his political background, to the margin of oblivion after his failure to pass the draft independence, whose success would make him a historic leader of the Kurds of Iraq and the region.
And according to the Iraqi , regional and international environment , and the position of Iraqi Kurdistan region to freeze the results of the referendum and then approval of the decision of the Federal Court in Baghdad , will the next step of that government to announce the cancellation of the results of the controversial referendum ? According to observers for the Iraqi issue, Erbil’s announcement of the cancellation of the results of the referendum is the only way to allow Abadi to re-connect with the Kurdistan region, “may be a reasonable price for any agreement between Baghdad and Erbil, whereby the Kurdistan region to get a fair share of the federal budget” after the Kurdish crisis was turned into an electoral file.
Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies