Dr.Salim M.Al Zanoon
It is not expected that the Israeli police’s recommendations for the trial of Netanyahu in the two cases 1000 and 2000 will lead to topple him from power for several reasons, the first is the legal procedures take at least a year and then he remains in office until the elections in November 2019. The second is the government coalition is still supportive for him , and the third is the weakness of mass protests against him, in addition to polls that still indicate that the Likud Party outperforms other parties, and the government coalition is still stable at 56 seats.
Israeli police announced on February 13 that they had found sufficient evidence to try Prime Minister Netanyahu on charges of receiving bribes in cases 1000 and 2000. The police also recommended the trial of businessman Arnon Malchin and the owner of the Yediot Ahronot newspaper, Noni Mozes.
In the case of 1,000, the charge against Netanyahu is to receive a bribe and a breach of trust in his relations with two businessmen. The first is Arnon Milchin and the second is James Baker as they presented gifts to Netanyahu worth 1 million ILS between 2007 and 2016, including champagne, fine cigarettes and jewelry. Netanyahu in return helped Milchin to obtain a passport to enter to America and worked to pass a law exempting a foreigner from taxes for longer than that specified in the law.
In the 2000 case, Netanyahu held talks with the owner of the Yediot Ahronot newspaper; Noni Mozes and they agreed to do a positive coverage of Netanyahu in the Yediot Ahronot newspaper. In return, Netanyahu tried to curb the publication of the competitive newspaper, “Israel Today,” but the police recommendations unable to topple Netanyahu, for three reasons:
The first is legal: From the legal point of view, the police recommendations for the trial of Netanyahu do not oblige the prime minister to resign. According to the legal procedures, the police transfer the evidence and recommendations to the public prosecutor for decision, and then to the attorney general of the government , who has the decision to file an indictment against him or not . It is expected that the process of examining the materials and filing an indictment against Netanyahu takes a year at least , the date of the next elections in November 2019.
The Second is political, Netanyahu’s stay in power is related with the government coalition, and till now he is being supported by coalition partners Moshe Kahlon, Naftali Bennett and Avigdor Lieberman. In other words, Netanyahu will continue to lead the country next year.
The third is mass, so far there are mass protests against Netanyahu and corruption in some Israeli cities but they are still limited to toppling Netanyahu, the situation may change if public protests are intensified.
According to this view, it is not possible to relinquish from the ruling and make a deal with the prosecution, especially in light of the results of the poll of the newspaper “Ma’arib”, which indicates that 79% of Likud voters believe that Netanyahu should remain in office.
In addition, the Likud Party led by Netanyahu has not been greatly affected following the recommendations of the police, and is still at the top of the parties in the event of elections at the present time, and according to the three opinion polls of Channel 2 and Channel 10, and the newspaper Ma’arib, the Likud Party still has 26 seats, 27 and 28 seats on respectively in the three polls, which is a reduction of 2-4 seats in the maximum.
The results of the polls of ” Ma’arib newspaper ” indicate that the current coalition , led by Netanyahu, maintains its stability by 65 parliamentary seats, slightly less than the total seats of the coalition during the last election 67 seats.
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies