America will not leave Iraq
Shatha Khalil *
The US administrations deliberately conceal the economic dimensions of its foreign policy and resort to adopting the policy of “obscuring” the real economic goals and motives of its wars and military plans and the occupation of Iraq was the best proof of this policy as the United States has set Iraq as part of its future strategy and plans for the US national security since 1930, when US consumption of oil was increased by 300%.
In May 1979, the idea matured in the United States as it published in the magazine(fortune) in its seventh edition plans to resolve the so-called ( Iraq’s invasion of Kuwait and Saudi Arabia) , in which it included that Iraqi forces could use Soviet weapons to quickly overcome the two countries expected that the two countries will ask assistance from ( America), which will intervene in tactical air strikes against Iraqi tanks and aircraft with the threat of destruction of its oil facilities, with the intervention of Marines of the Sixth and Seventh Fleets and the infantry forces of the two divisions (82 and 101) in order to get the Iraqi forces out . The plan was implemented after 12 years in the so-called Desert Storm.
Why did America choose Iraq?
The American foreign policy expert, James Eckens, said the reason for the US invasion of Iraq was “oil, obviously this is the issue, if the Iraqis were producing radishes, would we go to their invasion? Of course not. We invaded Iraq for oil. ”
US consumption of oil reached 11.3 million barrels per day and continued to increase until it reached about 20 million barrels per day, so that it imports two-thirds of its oil needs noting that its fields and reserves of oil in depletion, and Iraq had an initial reserve estimated at 115 billion barrels of 20 producing fields , but Iraq has 80 fields, according to estimates, the remaining 60 fields contain an additional 200 billion barrels, which will make Iraq the owner of the largest reserves of oil in the world, so that the field of Majnoon, which is one of the most oil fields in Iraq has an oil reserve equivalent to all the reserves of the United States , amounted 20 billion barrels, which will run out in a few years as the United States consumes about 20 million barrels / day of oil.
One of the reasons for the US interest in Iraqi oil is that the cost of producing the barrel does not exceed $ 2, while its operational cost in America is $ 14.8, the capital is $ 21.5 and in the US naval fields between $ 60-70 per barrel , therefore, Arab and Iraqi oil is a strategic commodity for the United states of America which consumes about 17 million barrels per day, while its production does not exceed 6 million barrels per day, ie it imports about 11 million barrels per day, to cover its actual consumption of energy.
One of the aims of controlling oil resources is to control its prices because the rise in the price of one barrel per barrel would mean the cost of its budget of four billion dollars annually, especially with the huge increase in the volume of its oil imports. In other words, the rise in the price of a barrel of US $ 3, it eliminates all America’s aid to the world. This explains the real reason for the American occupation of Iraq and refutes America’s justifications for the occupation, such as disarming the weapons of mass destruction as if the world “got up and did not sit down again and the relation between the Iraqi regime and al-Qaeda which threatens the world peace and security but the goal has been clear since the first moments when the US poles of the administration announced the Iraqi threat and days after the events of September in many of the statements of US administration officials and there is not enough space to talk about the reports of Richard Perle, Paul and Lufthi and other Pentagon hawks and members of the Defense Policy Planning Board and the philosophy of this team on the (American Century) and the imposition of US power on the world without rival, views and ideas have been published and known on a wide scale and all clearly illustrate the location of Iraq from the US plans for oil control and (geostrategic ) change of the region of Middle East and waving of using the mighty and historic military power of the United States in front of the major powers which are thinking to discuss or compete its authorities.
The occupation of Iraq was a declaration of strength of the beginning of the new American century, which devotes the American domination and control of the world and put the American hand on Iraqi oil and redrawing a geostrategic map of the Middle east region and influence around it, especially in the sub-continent of India and Central Asia.
The economic problems of the United States remain the real reasons behind the war on Iraq. Since Bush took office in January 2000, the economic situation has increasingly declined, especially after the events of September 11, 2001, and the repercussions of the adoption of the campaign against terrorism around the world and resulted to the exacerbating its economic situation.
US Budget Deficit
The deficit in the US budget for 2002 about two hundred billion dollars, and debt amounted to 32 trillion dollars, while unemployment amounted to more than 6 percent.
There is no doubt that these figures are impressive and reflect for the US economy effects and results can not be underestimated or to reduce its seriousness and the US economy suffered real suffering after 9/11, and the United States launched a war against the Taliban regime in Afghanistan (the ruling site) in South Asia on October 7, 2001, where it was expensive and high cost. Although initial estimates of the costs of US war on Iraq ranged between $ 95 billion and $ 200 billion, but the fruits and consequences the US administration expected from the success of the US invasion of Iraq were enough to challenge in a precedent that is almost the first of its kind the UN Security Council as the largest international authority representing the international administration and express the United Nations, as these results and fruits were enough to be outlaw of international legitimacy and act by taking military measures and actions away from the authority of the international community, and the violation of the decisions of its bodies, and the departure of international laws and charters in an unprecedented manner, and this explains beyond any doubt the real objectives of the evolution of the global strategy of the United States of America, on the one hand, and explains the economic importance of this war on Iraq on the other.
One of the real objectives of the American intervention in Iraq:
– Iraqi oil is the precious goal of American intervention in Iraq because of the surplus reserves in addition to the ease of extraction.
– To dominate its potential enemies and on the forefront is China noting that Beijin is one of the main rivals militarily and politically to America in the coming years, China is a major importer of Iraqi and Gulf oil, so that the weight of America in Iraq will allow it to pressure and control the competing countries in the region, led by China.
– Control of Iraq gives a force factor for America to make radical geopolitical change by creating more states under its control in the Middle East.
– America is well aware that Iraq is a civilization force and is the land of Arab Islamic memory and this threatens the sovereignty of western culture and values.
– The economic crisis experienced by America is an additional factor and important to the tendency of the ruling class in America to intervene in other countries, the way out of this crisis in their view is the adoption of a barbaric policy allows the overthrow of regimes and the occupation of America to the decisions of other countries, and create markets for the disposal of surplus. However, America is experiencing a continuous and historical decline in its share of world GDP from 50 percent at the end of the Second World War to 22.5 at the moment. Of course, the US economic crisis was reflected on the trends of public opinion internally and externally, especially the working class within America.
– America’s need to strengthen its military bases in the Western Desert of Iraq, the geographical point that launched forty-one Scud missiles in 1991 to land on Tel Aviv, Jaffa and Haifa deep inside the Israeli Entity .These days, the Israelis are insisting that the Americans retain the right to control Western Sahara in order to protect them and protect their arbitrary acts in Palestine and other countries in the region.
– The political gain in showing America itself to the world and peoples as a protector of democracy and anti-Takfiri movements.
– Eliminate any opportunity to create a strong and capable state in the region, emanating from the will of the people that respects the rights of citizens and humanity.
However, these US goals and aspirations in the region and despite all the weight it does to achieve it , but the data on the ground clearly indicate that the US policy in the region has failed, and has not reaped from its interference in the Iraqi issue, only the disappointment and failure and the decline of its regional and global role, in addition to increasing its economic problems , and the decline of the confidence of its allies, the will of the people refuse only to win!
US-Iraqi relations after the upcoming elections
The statements of the Pentagon reveal the intention of the US administration to maintain military bases and activate the “security and strategic agreement” with the new government after the elections. These statements coincide with the reality of operations conducted by America, inside Iraq.
Despite the declaration of victory and the elimination of a “terrorist organization ISIS “, US forces are still bombing different parts of Iraq to pursue the followers of the terrorist ISIS ; and the United States of America continues to announce the launch of its ongoing operations in Syria and Iraq, which raises the question about many statements issued by the Iraqi and US sides regarding the operations described as based on accurate intelligence because of the continuity and huge numbers of civilian casualties in the period following the declarations of victory and celebrate it. What happened to the great promises of stability, safety and reconstruction, in the period that was called “post-ISIS”? What is the role of the conflicts between the influential parties and the militias in this period, and is there an American role in addition to the Iranian? And the validity of the fact that military operations and bombing are targeting actually the remains of the terrorist organization ISIS.
The use of the pretext of protecting the world is translated on the ground that the Joint Task Force, or the United States and its allies, has a legitimate justification for staying on Iraq and Syria for a period of time imposed by it , according to its economic, political and military interests.
The United States is working to keep a ISIS presence, to intimidate nations and people, to keep Iraq weak, torn, and to facilitate its hegemony, in cooperation with local parties allied with regional states, the United States, or both.
The US Global Research website reported on January 23 that there are six US military bases in Iraq .There are indications of the establishment of other bases. These bases will not be the same size as they were before the withdrawal of the occupation forces in 2011, but they will be able to achieve the desired objectives, including air control and intelligence and assassinations by drones. The most important military bases, according to the British site of «Mail Online» are: the former Saddam International Airport outside Baghdad, the air base of Tallil near Nasiriyah, in the south, the air base known as H-1, in Western Sahara, and the Bashor airport in northern Iraq. The location of H-1 is of particular strategic importance, as the Special Forces are currently deployed in it, being on the route of the oil pipeline to Jordan.
What It is confirmed that the United States will not withdraw from Iraq that its history confirms that it still resides in the military “cities” in Japan and Germany more than 65 years after the end of the Second World War, and that any place the US entered to , it does not withdraw from it like Korea, the United States does not withdraw voluntarily but forcibly as the Vietnam ,and this mesns US will not leave Iraq , the Pentagon’s spokesman, Eric Bahon indicated . According to the Pentagon, the agreement with the Iraqi government to keep the remaining 5,200 US troops in Iraq, in addition to the Special Forces that its numbers were not mentioned, and will be concentrated in the western side From Iraq, and its work will be limited to train Iraqi forces. The United States goes beyond its fight against terrorism, preparing for a future geopolitical war or a war of influence beyond the borders of Iraq, paving the way for its presence on the border between Iraq and Syria.
Former US Secretary of State Rex Tillerson said US forces would not withdraw from Iraq and considered its presence in Iraq legal according to the 2001 and 2002 war mandates after the September 11 attacks and the start of the war in Iraq.
And sources close to the government confirmed, “the coordination continues in order to maintain the US support in line with the requirements of Iraqi forces in the next phase.
Sources pointed out that the survival of the Syrian crisis without a solution, and the Iranian presence in Syria requires a US presence on the Iraqi-Syrian border, in addition to the US alliance with the Kurds of Syria, which requires the support of them from Iraq and other additional reasons for non-US withdrawal in full.
Economic Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies