After a week-long wait, the Iraqi Election Commission announced at dawn Saturday the final results of the parliamentary elections held on the 12th of this month. According to the final results announced by the Commission in a press conference, where the results of those elections came , which is the first in Iraq after the defeat of the terrorist organization ISIS at the end of last year and the second since the US withdrawal in 2011, as follows:
First : The list of “Saroon ” : It got 54 seats, Led by Mr. Moqtada al-Sadr, who allied with the Communist Party and some technocratic parties on the basis of fighting corruption.
Second: Fatah List: It won 47 seats, led by Hadi al-Amiri and includes some popular crowed factions.
Third: Al-Nasr coalition list: It won 42 seats, led by Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abbadi, in shock to some observers who expected the prime minister to win at least 55 seats.
Fourth: The list of coalition rule of law (Dawlat al-Qanoon) : I got 26 seats, led by former Iraqi Prime Minister, Nuri al-Maliki, and this result a significant decline, after having won 92 seats in the 2014 elections.
Fifth: List of the Kurdistan Democratic Party : It got 25 seats, led by Massoud Barzani.
Sixth:al- Wataniya coalition list : 21 seats, led by Iyad Allawi, Vice President of the Republic
Seventh: – List of al-Hikmah movement: It got 19 seats, led by Mr. Ammar al-Hakim.
Eighth: List of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan: It obtained 18 seats.
Ninth: – List of the coalition of the Iraqi Qarar : It got 14 seats , led by Osama Najafi.
The rest of the results were as follows:
* List of Anbar is our identity: 6 seats.
* Movement of al-Taghier – change: 5 seats.
* AlJeel al-Jadeed : 4 seater.
*Baghdad Alliance: 4 seats.
*Nineveh is our identity: 3 seats.
*Arab Alliance: 3 seats.
*Turkmen Front – Kirkuk: 3 seats.
* Erada coalition: 3 seats.
* Alliance of Qal’at Al-Jamaheer Al-Wataniya . 3 seats.
*Party of Al-Jamaheer Al-Wataniya : two seats.
*Aproon coalition: Two seats.
*Biyarek al-Khair: Two seats.
* The Islamic Union of Kurdistan: two seats.
* Coalition for Democracy and Justice: two seats.
* The Islamic Group of Kurdistan: two seats.
* Kafa’at (Competences) for change: two seats.
*Tamdan: Two seats.
* Civil Coalition (al-Madani): one seat.
* The civil party (al-Madani): one seat.
* Saladin is our identity: one seat.
* Gathering of the men of Iraq (Tajamaa) : one seat.
*Babylonian: One seat.
*Democratic approach: one seat.
*Shabak: one seat.
Minorities received nine seats in the quota system:
* Christian community: 5 seats. “Erbil, Dohuk, Nineveh”.
* Shabak community: one seat “Nineveh”.
* The yazidi community: one seat “Nineveh”.
* The Sabian community: one seat “Baghdad”.
*Fili community: one seat “Wasit”.
As for the winners and losers of ministers in the elections, they are as follows:
* Winners:
1. Prime Minister.
2. Minister of Interior.
3- Minister of Labor.
4- Minister of Electricity.
5. Minister of Agriculture.
6. The Minister of Oil.
7- Minister of Education.
8 – Minister of Sports and Youth.
9. Minister of Transport.
* Losers:
1. Minister of Housing and Municipalities.
2. Minister of Health.
3. Minister of Planning and Trade.
Foreign Minister Ibrahim al-Jaafari did not participate in the parliamentary elections.
According to the final results announced by the Electoral Commission, none of the electoral coalitions exceeded the threshold of 55 seats in the Iraqi Council of Representatives. After each legislative election, the winning blocs enter into long negotiations to form a majority government. It is not ruled out that the first winning bloc in the legislative elections to lose its ability to form a government, due to alliances between the parliamentary blocs. Therefore, it is theoretically legal and constitutionally possible to exclude the “Saroon” from the government formation, as happened in 2010, to form a parliamentary alliance that collects the largest number of parliamentary seats, and nominate the Prime Minister.
But it seems that the new negotiations will be complicated amid the current tension between Washington and Tehran over the US withdrawal from Iran’s nuclear deal. Both the United States and Iran are casting its weight in Iraq today to decide what alliances that will determine the maker of the next government. Some see Sadr’s character and approach as problematic for Iran and the United States. Historically, Washington has not forgotten the “Mehdi Army,” which has hurt US troops after the 2003 invasion, but this hostility appears to be dissipating. Tehran does not forget the hostile attitudes of the al-Sadr descendant, who are known for their widely respected religious leadership. The latest was his visit to Saudi Arabia, Iran’s arch enemy.
As soon as the initial results of the elections appeared, the winning lists in the Iraqi general elections formed their negotiating delegations prepared for an arduous phase of lengthy meetings to agree on sharing the details of the new ministry, starting from the post of prime minister, to the administrations of some sections in a number of sensitive constituencies. The composition of the negotiating delegations reflects a complete lack of trust among the political partners on the same list, each insisting on ensuring that it is represented at the negotiating table in order to obtain its full share of the government’s new cake. Each list consists of a number of the various political forces and parties, or figures who have already worked in parties that split from it lately. Each winning list went through tough internal negotiations to form its negotiating delegation with the other lists, given the desire of all components of the same list to attend negotiations to ensure their rights.
According to preliminary indicators and understandings, we can talk about the scenarios of the composition of the largest bloc forming the next government:
First: Haider Abadi + Mr. Moqtada al-Sadr + Mr. Ammar al-Hakim + Wataniya Coalition + al-Qarar coalition = 150.
Second: Haidar al-Abadi + Mr. Muqtada al-Sadr + Mr. Ammar al-Hakim + Hadi al-Ameri + Kurdistan Democratic Party List = 187.
Third : – Haider Abadi + Mr. Ammar Hakim + Hadi Amiri + List of the National Union of Kurdistan = 126.
Fourth : – Haider Abadi + Hadi Amiri + Nuri al-Maliki + list of the Patriotic Union of Kurdistan + alliance of the Jamal al- Karbali = 148.
Fifth :. Muqtada al-Sadr + Hadi al-Amiri + Mr. Ammar al-Hakim = 120.
Sixth : Haidar al-Abadi + Mr. Moqtada al-Sadr + Hadi al-Amiri + Mr. Ammar al-Hakim + Nuri al-Maliki + Wataniya Coalition + all Kurds + al-Qarar , and if the government formed according to these coalitions we are in front of the government of national unity that would avoid Iraq a lot of crises in the foresee future . And in dire need of its reconstruction in all its aspects. What is helping it that the government of national unity enjoys Arab, regional and international support.
This is the closest possibility in the formation of the next Iraqi government because it reflects the Iraqi political reality, which is devoted after 2003, without losing sight of the other possibilities. The formation of the next Iraqi government depends on those possibilities and the final ratification of the election results, which were characterized by many frauds, as if it is a key element of the Iraqi parliamentary elections.
The results of the Iraqi elections surprised both Washington and Tehran, first sent Brett MacGurk and the second sent its officials to Baghdad to deal with the results of the elections. Within 24 hours, officials of the two countries will arrive in the Kurdistan Region to evaluate their results. And the results of these elections led the ambassadors of Arab and Islamic countries accredited in Iraq to visit of Mr. Muqtada al-Sadr, and the neighboring countries held meetings in Baghdad and Hananah in Najaf and Erbil to look at the results of the Iraqi elections.
In conclusion, the new House of Representatives will elect the President of the Republic and the ministers in preparation for the formation of the new government. With the vagueness of the favorite candidate for the post of new prime minister, while names such as Tarek Najm, Adel Abdul Mahdi, Mohammed Yasha al-Sudani and Ali Douai are put up, Haidar al-Abadi remains the strongest candidate for the post of prime minister for another four years.
Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies