What awaits Iraq?

What awaits Iraq?

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last Saturday was not an ordinary day in the history of the Iraqi political process, and in Interestingly evolution,  the supporters of Muqtada al – Sadr  stormed  heavily fortified Green Zone through its key gates  and tore down the concrete wall surrounding it  and arrived to the headquarters of the Iraqi Council of Representatives and broke into the main hall, and destroyed its furniture and contents, as well as many of   MP and official’s  cars, and attacks on a number of MPs in the Iraqi House of Representatives. and camped out next to it .

The reason for the occurrence  of this intrusion  was   the   failure of the Iraqi parliament  to complete the reshuffle, which was supposed to be submitted on Saturday by Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi. This intrusion  was taken place after less than one hour on the statement of the leader of the Sadrist movement, Muqtada al-Sadr,  in which he has attacked the government and  the House of Representatives and the system of sectarian quotas in the distribution of ministerial portfolios, noting that the  Green Zone is  the most heavily fortified areas in Iraq, as it includes the headquarters of the House of Representatives and the government and the presidency of the republic and 22  diplomacy Mission, including the US and British embassies.

It seems that the crisis  has been started after informing the Alharar bloc «Liberal»   that the list of new candidates to the ministry, which was supposed to be provided by the Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to the House of Representatives on Saturday included personalities affiliated  to political parties, . And it explained that the list  included of five ministerial portfolios and they  are oil, transport, trade, industry and reconstruction. It  pointed out that «Abadi faced pressure following the demand of the blocs of the Kurdistan Alliance and the National Forces Alliance not to touch the respective ministers in the government and refused to replace them by others, which raised the anger of Alahrar bloc».

And  the House of Representatives enterd so in a new crisis after failing to reach a quorum for the meeting because of the boycott of the bloc of protesters totaling 90 deputies .the  Council announced the postponement of its sessions until the tenth of this month, amid a rally of thousands of followers of the Sadrist movement around the Green Zone.

Muqtada al-Sadr announced at a press conference from his home in Najaf yesterday   the boycott of any political process that includes  any kind of quota system types saying ” I refuse  association with any politician  whatever his  demands  are without radical reform”. And he added «I wait for major popular uprising and the People’s Great Revolution, and there are    two options in front of people either to keep the quotas or dropping the entire government», then decided   he decided to  stay in seclusion for two months « as an expression  for rejection of quotas and corruption, and condemnation to the negligence of  some of the popular classes». Alsadr  decided to stop the political work in all aspects of the Sadrist movement, and excluded the political work to form  across-Sectarian Bloc bloc , called  Alhrar bloc «Liberal» affiliated to him to  boycott parliamentary sessions «with quotas», adding that «the prime minister is under great pressure from political forces ». And  video clips  shoed yesterday that hundreds of protesters as they sit in the halls of Parliament and others walking around inside the Green Zone and cross the suspension bridge for the first time in 13 years.

Three presidencies , and a number of leaders of political blocs in Iraq have been condemned the storm of the House of Representatives by the protesters  and the attack on a number of its members, and described it as the grave trespass  on the state  prestige .A statement of the Iraqi President Fuad Masum stated  that  the presidencies and the leaders of the blocks  saw at the end of a meeting they  held on Sunday that what happened is a  flagrant breach to the constitutional framework that calls for the prosecution of the assailants in front  of  the justice, stressing the support for the assembled security forces, and urged it to carry out its responsibility in the maintenance of public security for citizens and protect the institutions of any transgression from any party whatsoever. He called on participants to adopt a law and constitutional contexts in imposing the rule of law and the prestige of the state  And on his part, Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al – Abadi called for the prosecution of those who have broken the law among the demonstrators. Haidar al – Abadi   Office in a statement  said today that ” the Prime Minister directed  the Minister of Interior Mohammad Al Ghabban to prosecute elements who attacked the security forces and members of the House of Representatives and damaged public properties , and bring them to justice to receive their just punishment.”

The head of the “Uniting for Reform” Osama Najafi he accused Abadi for the responsibility  to break into the green zone by thousands of demonstrators. Najafi said  What was happened indicates to  the number of facts  that should stand on it  with purpose to  address it   rather than being rotated  on a vicious circle that  does not only lead to the “destruction of Iraq and striking its  unity and stabbed  the goals of  its people. “for its part, the Kurdish blocs in the Iraqi parliament today condemned the storming process of the parliament  on Saturday, saying it would take  other position on these events . Kurdish blocs stressedv that these acts show that there is a partisan and personal agenda behind it, noting that it would review participation in the political process in Iraq. The Iranian regime and across sites close to the Revolutionary Guards demanded Moqtada al-Sadr to retire from political work and to be devoted in  full-time study, this means that the Iranian regime is upset by its supporters to storm the Green Zone. Moreover, this intrusion is a source of great inconvenience to the American administration, since adversely affect its war against the state regulation especially as its ally in Baghdad, Haider al-Abadi began to lose control of them. According to the American administration and due to the strong sectarian Shiite domination on the nature of political and government work in Iraq, the storming of the parliament did not only cause the outbreak of violence that has left behind the victims, but the demonstrators acknowledged that the security dealing with them was not tough, with the widespread of the popular crowd militias in sensitive points surrounding Baghdad to protect those sit-ins from  Daash   attacks, which reveals that the sectarian forces in Iraq want fencing the  battle   by sectarianism as if they are  battles of  the Shiites  and among  them on all of Iraq.

In this context, observers of the Iraqi affair raises several questions: What is the forthcoming US role in  this crisis? Do  the US administration will  respect  the Iraqi will rebelling against the forces of corruption and mafias of  thefts and abhorrent sectarian quotas parties  who abused for Iraq and the Iraqis and  looted the treasury of Iraq funds, and do stand in  full impartial from what is going on  being  an internal affair of the Iraqi House or whether it would re-arrange its cards in another suit, according to shifts and new data on the ground reality in Iraq? Do  the US administration exert pressure  on the Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi to form a real government of technocrats from professional people independents  who have high efficiency, not tied to the parties of  the power nor  receive orders from the heads of political blocs who dominate by their influence and Militias  on political decisions, to absorb the resentment of the Iraqi street,  resentfuland angry for  what goes on behind the scenes of politicized trade deals between the political blocs  hunting  in the dirty waters of politics?

Or is the US administration will change its approach  and programs and political tactics in Iraq in order to avoid international criticism and the anticipation of what might happen from the crises and conflicts and divisions  that come out from the expectations  circle and  put it in critical situation? Here will be the supposed question: Do  the US administration  will sacrifice for the current government and conduct real negotiations with representatives of the Iraqi will  of national and political independents and  leaders of the  organization  from   civilians and protestors and organizers of the revolutionist  masses   from all  components of the Iraqi people to apologize for what happened and what is happening because of its arrogant and  wrong  policy  in Iraq, and start a new page of diplomatic relations marred by rationalization and respect and non-interference in the internal policy and sovereignty of Iraq, or is  the US administration has another answer that  does not disclose it apparently, and will not abandon the Iraqi taste good cake  no matter what is the price, and will not give up its policy of  fishing with two hooks ?!

Because of the  current political crisis in Iraq, which  the intrusion process is the  Last  expected consequences , especially since Muqtada al-Sadr pointed out that in his  previous statements  as   Moqtada al-Sadr  assisted by the Street to resolve the differences with political opponents, especially in light of   standing  his rival, former prime minister, Nuri al-Maliki  behind the sit-ins of the  Representatives at the headquarters of the House of Representatives. This  sit-in  is designed to confuse and mix the papers  and  terrifying the political parties of the collapse of the political process until they accept the to continue the   quota system to form a government. But the immediate aim was to thwart the announcement of a government dominated by al-Sadr movement on the most prominent ministries. Especially after an agreement achieved  between Muqtada al-Sadr and Haider Abadi,  based on a promise to end the sit-in  in  the Green Zone  of the Sadrist movement against  for six portfolios and  notably  are , Finance, Planning , electricity, justice, and culture.

For its part, the Presidency of the political body of the Sadrist movement said that   alahrar bloc will  continue to suspend its work until the correction of the path of the  political   political process and the completion of the reforms demanded by the protesters. The  political body added in a statement that the storm of the green zone  and the building of the Iraqi Council of Representatives by the protesters is only a warning message to parties that  are “blinded from seeing the truth” , indicating that the reason for everything that happened is the “confusion and turmoil” that gripped the political process, and ignoring   “the people’s demands, and” persistence “in the consecration of the failure of poor management of state institutions. The Commission emphasized in its statement  of  its rejection  any attack  against any sacred   human being  and terrifying  the safe or any  aggression on the  the public state property and private property and any attempt to deviate the  efforts of the reform from its  noble objective .

Iraq is today a recipe of  absolute failure  that  the political elite who rule it  does not stop of engineering of it . there is  no doubt that the searcher for the headlines describing the Iraqi catastrophe are  located on the forefront  by  disastrous title  for   the replacement of Saddam Hussein with a number of small  divided dictators . While it was allowed to  criticize  of the US occupation, and among the worst deeds of US is to hand over the rule of Iraq to such bad ones  , it has become clear that the hidden function of exaggeration in this criticism, when issued by the rulers of Baghdad, but rather divert attention from themselves and lift  their responsibility for what they alone are responsible for it. Iraq is a scene  of the unmistakable sight of what was done by the totalitarianism when  confiscated the politics  for decades, and prevent  the lowest expressions of difference that congested in the chests of the opponents  who came  from  the nests of the secret work  and  stores of conspiracies and intrigues , motivated by  revenge  to their  sectarian group, and do not  find an example for  them, except in totalitarian ruler who were opposed to him in the exile.

Those who are no longer  to be waved  by the  time more  than two or three days, where they  revenge so from the dreamer  and loot what they can  to vaccinate themselves about the fate   similar to his fate . And as the time  is shortened  , the home land  is declined as well   to become a clan  topped with a small totem , inhabited by an example of  a large totem , while  Iran hires  totems and their  tribes with  the inconsiderable  prices.  The saying of the  Indian leader Gandhi can be applied on Iraq today  : “Many on the power and few around the world.”

As the political process  in Iraq since 2003 and to this day led to a struggle for influence and interests between the blocs and political parties in Iraq, noting that  this conflict  is no longer  taken place between Sunnis on one side   and  the Shiites on the other side, but the conflict was developed in Iraq to become within the Shiite National Alliance, but the United States  and the Iranian regime will not allow that this conflict up to the level of a civil war within the Shiite House, and would intervene at a certain moment to end it, noting that the  the war for the first  is the end for its project in Iraq and for  the second to end of the influence of  it.

It seems that Iraq is on the verge of an extremely hot summer of political, military and economic grades began to rise, On the political level , the Iraqi parliament passes tough days of the attempt of the  sit-in deputies  affiliated to the Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki  to ensure the dismissal of the Speaker and his two deputies, and the storming of supporters of the al-Sadr current of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, and on  the military side ,  Iraq is witnessing the  bad situation on the battlefronts  against the state organization in Iraq and the Levant “Daash” but economically, Iraq suffers from a severe economic crisis. And Iraq could exceed the severity of this summer if  adopted approach to solve the crises that is   not based on sectarian or racial dimension, but relying on the national dimension, otherwise this crisis will turn into a flood  that no one would be in safe of I  .  Is the flood waiting for Iraq ?

 

Rawabet Center for  Research and Strategic Studies