The US decision to withdraw from northeastern Syria paved the way for Turkey to launch an offensive called “ operation peace spring ” , it was a surprise to its Syrian Kurds and European allies. This article looks at the withdrawal from a completely different angle, from the perspective of Dr. Salim Mhammed Al-Zaanoun , it constitutes a transformation in the new International order .
The American withdrawal from northeast Syria is a preliminary cover for a new international order
D. Salim M. al-Zaanoun
The first decade of the 21st century witnessed the beginning of a change in the international order ,where the unipolar system , based on absolute American hegemony over international politics , retreated to a single –pluralist system that included a single superpower (USA ) and a number of major powers (European Union , Russia , China ) , forming a semi-pluralistic system led by the United States .
After the global financial crisis of 2008 and the launch of Obama’s strategy “leadership from behind ” , an unpolarized international order was formed in which there are many international emerging powers that defy US hegemony at the top of the international order but are unable to dominate international policy and radically change the structure of the order along with a rapid transformation of global wealth and economic power from west to east , an international order without poles constitutes a transitional stage that prepares the international environment for the transformation of the structure of the international order towards a multi- polar international order , this phase may last until 2050.
The US withdrawal from Syria is a practical step in US foreign policy, signaling the launch of the new international order encompassing its renunciation of its role as the dominant power in the international order. This withdrawal will have an effect of “domino theory” on the Washington’s foreign policy, followed by the loss of more US influence, and withdraw from other countries.
Afghanistan: Washington has been involved for 8 years in the war in Afghanistan and wants to withdraw and could withdraw without agreement with Taliban, on which Zalmay Khalil Zada and the Qatari were working on, to strengthen the influence of Russia, China, India and Pakistan.
Iraq: in Iraq, there is a partisan, political, and military structure linked to Iran. Under this structure, Washington’s engagement with the future of Iraq is very weak, given that pro-Iranian voices are demanding the USA to leave. This would weaken the KRG. Washington’s main partner.
Lebanon: Washington faces the same problem as Iraq, the Iranian – backed Hezbollah’s domination of the situation.
Gulf : The failure of Washington to respond to the Iranian strike on Saudi oil facilities and its decision to abandon the Kurds to withdraw from Syria , has raised the concerns of the Gulf States and increased the degree of uncertainty in the US security guarantees to the countries of the region in the light of the high Iranian boldness and the transition from proxy war to direct action and the gulf countries will seek to diversify their relations with Russia , China, France , Britain, and India in order to compensate .
Jordan: Jordan is an important stabilizing link between the Gulf states and Israel, but it is dissatisfied with US policy regarding the “deal of the century “because it marginalized its role in the Palestinian cause and has profound implications for its stability.
Israel: Washington – Tel Aviv relationship was strengthened under the era of Trump, but Washington’s abandonment of Kurds has raised Israel’s fears that Washington will give it up later. It has embarked on self-reliance forming regional alliances, strengthening relations with China, and recognizing Russia’s role as Washington’s equal player in regional politics.
Egypt : Despite strengthening the relationship with Washington , it will not tolerate the US administration ‘s support for the Muslim Brotherhood , create chaos and its role in Libya , create instability in Egypt’s strategic depth , and Egypt has began to diversify and strengthen its relations with Russia .
In the next phase, Washington will gradually give up its role in the countries, in one country after the other .It is likely to reduce its external influence and at the best to keep it steady. Most countries in the Middle East, including Israel, are looking to Russia and China to a lesser degree to discuss the future and security of the region.
Conclusion: the gradual US withdrawal from the region, as ell as the possibility of a French –European withdrawal from African Sahel after the terrorist strikes against it, this imposes on the Arab countries the following:
1. Self-reliance in relation to the defense system to achieve three strategic objectives: counter the destabilizing impact of Iran and Turkey, defeat extremist organizations and curtail political Islam.
2. Build a collective –regional security structure as a sustainable framework to secure long-term security and stability.
3. Rebuilding the Arab regional system, either through the restoration of the Arab League or the building of a new structure with ne institutions.
4. The formation of real and effective regional alliances (India, Pakistan, Israel) under the umbrella if international powers such as China and Russia.
Rawabet Center for the Research and Strategic Studies