Test of President Trump impeachment hypothesis

Test of President Trump impeachment hypothesis

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Dr.Salim M.Al Zanoon

In the light of the issues and charges facing the president, “Trump, faces the risk of being removed from office, but this scenario is only a hypothesis; need to direct condemnation and political support, and with the lack of direct condemnation so far, and the unwillingness of Democrats in the scenario of isolation  even after the mid- term , the impeachment  remains just an unattainable hypothesis.

In accordance with the Constitution, the Congress is entitled to dismiss the President from office in the event of treason or bribery or any other serious crimes or misdemeanors. The proceedings shall be carried out in two stages: First, to submit a request to the Justice Committee in the House of Representatives. If approved, it shall be put to a vote and subject to a simple majority to be transferred to the Senate to try the president headed by the Supreme Judge in the Supreme Court, and the conviction is made and dismissal of the President by a vote of two-thirds of the members of the senate .
According to the historical experience, no president was deposed in the United States, but the isolation proceedings were carried out against three presidents: Andrew Johnson 1869 for overthrowing the defense minister without congressional approval, Richard Nixon 1974 in the Watergate scandal and lying in the case of spying on Democrats, Bill Clinton 1998 Because of break the oath (tell a lie)in the Monica Lewinsky scandal, in the first and third cases they continued in their positions as a result of failing to get the required two-thirds majority in the Senate. In the case of Nixon , he resigned before the proceedings were completed, then President Gerald Ford pardoned him (2).
The case of President Donald Trump.
With respect to the Trump case, the chances of his dismissal depend on two main factors: the results of the investigations, the Democratic Party’s desire for isolation, and both factors are not yet available.
First, the results of the investigations. Until now, the FBI, led by Robert Mueller, has not provided any evidence of Trump’s complicity with Russia which would justify directing the charge of treason. In addition, the Intelligence Committee in the House of Representatives stated that the investigation did not prove any evidence of communication, coordination or conspiracy of Tramp’s campaign with the Russian government, in light of which the US House of Representatives was unable to identify the charges and vote on them and then transmitted to the Senate.
Second: Midterm Elections, if the Republican Party continues to control the House of Representatives, the passing of Trump’s trial and removal will not be easy, but if the Democrats take a majority on the House, they could run a campaign to isolate Trump.
The Democrats are not compatible with the scenario of isolation, as indicated by the fact that the Democratic Party leadership did not support Democratic Senator Alan Green’s proposal to isolate Trump. Nancy Pelosi, the House Democratic leader, said the isolation of Trump was not a party priority and she prefers to wait the results of the ongoing investigation by lawyer Robert Mueller ,and a Democratic official pointed out that the party has no plans to make the issue of Trump isolation an essential part of his strategy for the midterm elections of the Congress.

On the issue of sex and the payment of money in order to silence the women Trump was involved with in comparison to the Bill Clinton case, the isolation measures were taken because of break the oath in the scandal of Monica Lewinsky, not because it is a sex scandal; they are issues that are not a justification for impeachment  and are not a matter for Trump’s position as president.

International Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies