Two years after the signing of the Iranian nuclear deal, US President Donald Trump came to restore the crisis that took years of negotiations to square one, through his threats and hints of the suspension of the agreement, which has raised the concerns of Iranian and even Western parties. And in the “basket” that blew up the nuclear deal, it seems that the Trump administration is also considering the option of classifying Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on its “terrorism” list, according to leaks, quoting from US officials, which is definitely followed by imposing sanctions on it .These hints called for Iranian threats to Washington in return.
Yesterday, US President Donald Trump overthrew the doctrine of his predecessor, Barack Obama, on Iran, and launched a fierce attack on its regime, saying it was “the biggest supporter of terrorism and an extremist.” The president refused to ratify the nuclear deal between Tehran and the six countries, and his administration has included Iran’s Revolutionary Guard on the list of “terrorist-supporting” organizations. In his speech, which was a trial of Iran’s conduct in the nuclear file and support for terrorism and destabilization, US President Donald Trump indicated yesterday to the cancellation of the nuclear agreement between Tehran and six major countries if it would not be modified. He also authorized the Treasury Department to take “severe sanctions” against Iran’s Revolutionary Guard, which supports terrorism.
The US president announced four elements in his new strategy: the first is to work with allies to counter Iran’s destabilizing activity and support terrorists in the region; secondly to impose additional sanctions to block the regime from financing terrorism; and third to impose sanctions on Iran for pursuing ballistic missile tests and developing weapons that threaten its neighbors and world trade And the fourth is to prevent Iran from taking any course to acquire a nuclear weapon. “It is time for the whole world to join us in demanding that the Iranian government to end its quest for death and destruction. He pointed out that that the destabilizing effect of the Iranian government should be neutralized and its aggression must be limited especially its support for terrorism and insurgents. he added ” “We should reinvigorate our traditional alliances and regional partnerships against Iranian subversion and restore greater stability to the balance of power in the region,” he continued saying : ” We will work to prevent the Iranian regime from financing its malicious activities. ” he added “The Iranian regime has exploited regional conflicts and instability to expand its regional influence by force and threaten its neighbors, in return for small domestic or international losses to its actions.” He went on saying “Over the past decade and a half, the policy of the United States has given priority to the direct threat from Sunni extremist movements to the long-term threat posed by Iranian-backed armed actions,” he said, leading to “the neglect of Iran’s steady expansion through terrorist agents and networks targeting to Keep its neighbors weak and unstable, hoping to control the Greater Middle East.”
As President Trump’s speech ended, the US Treasury Department announced sanctions against the Revolutionary Guards. US Treasury Secretary Steve Manuchen said the Revolutionary Guards played a pivotal role in making Iran the first state sponsor of terrorism in the world. After Trump’s speech, Congress began work on legislation on Iran that would be put forward within 90 days, as an alternative to possible sanctions on the nuclear issue and may to break-up the deal. If this legislation is passed, it will be added to the nuclear deal as a reference to the administration, and if Iran does not comply, sanctions will be tightened.
On the other hand, Iranian President Hassan Rowhani responded in a televised address to Trump and said his remarks “proved that the nuclear agreement is stronger than the president thought in the presidential election.” Rohani called on the American president to read history and read geography, adding that his speech “carried only insults and a series of accusations against the Iranian people.” Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasimi threatened to withdraw from the nuclear deal “if necessary.” Iran vowed yesterday to avenge on any action aimed at its armed forces and accused the United States of violating the spirit of the nuclear deal. “Iran will respond strongly to any action against its armed forces, including the Revolutionary Guards,” state television quoted Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Bahram Qasimi as saying. He said Iran would continue to strengthen its defense forces, including its ballistic missile program, in defiance of Western criticism, where Washington says Tehran’s position violates the nuclear deal.
The new US measures fall in the context of a clear return to the page that former US President Barack Obama tried to fold. Despite the high tone of President Trump, his position is no exception, since Iran-US relations have been the focus of successive White House attention since Jimmy Carter. Of course, Washington’s politicians or decision-makers do not deny the importance of Iran as a state or as a political system and regional project, However, all they want , those who are weaving the carpet of Iranian decisions, is to communicate with the Americans to understandings that take into account their interests but the lack of confidence and contradictions in the regional files and the conflicts between Iran and Washington’s allies have lost many opportunities because of pre- ideological positions such as the commandment of Imam Khomeini, which denies reconciliation with Washington, or because of the absence of a clear US policy toward Iran in many periods. The question that arises in this context, the most important in Iran’s expansionist project is the survival of the Revolutionary Guard away from all American and international sanctions or maintaining the nuclear agreement with the six-party international?
The Revolutionary Guards are more important to Tehran than the nuclear deal. It is a backbone of the ruling regime and the Iranian revolution, and any action against the “Guard” will have a radical impact on Iran’s foreign and domestic policies. The Revolutionary Guard is a military institution that is one of the most important pillars of the armed forces in Iran. It has a major role in the Iranian interior, both militarily and economically. The Guards have land, sea and air forces and medium- to long-range missiles, either locally manufactured or developed from Russian-made missiles. This military establishment has more than 100,000 permanent members and nearly 300,000 reservists. The Quds Force, one of the most prominent brigades of the Revolutionary Guard, represents the external wing of this military establishment, which is responsible for Iran’s field role in Syria and Iraq. All this means that the guard has a big role in the equation of Iranian foreign policy, it represents the rhetoric of power, while the government of Ruhani adopts a speech of openness and moderation to the West in particular.
Therefore, there is no interest in the world in leaving the IRGC in the region and leading the war of militias in Syria, Iraq, Lebanon and Yemen. By the end of the temporary embargo period, Iran will be extended in the region and its client governments will be established, and the West will not be able to impose sanctions or prevent them from enrichment, and will have completed building the support system from platforms, laboratories, caches and others. Iran’s expansionist and hegemonic project over the region, not just building its nuclear capabilities for defensive purposes. India and Pakistan, for example, possess a nuclear weapon within the balance of forces in South Asia, and since that day we have never seen the two countries seek to expand or fight wars. It is a mistake to read Iran’s nuclear project as merely a desire to catch up with the Club of Nuclear Powers. Every day, Iran is engaged in destructive military battles in the region and not all of them have defensive needs, but they are all expansive activities. Tehran’s intentions and insistence on its defiance of the world are clear from its handling of the current row with Washington. The US administration conceded to it in Syria, and agreed to maintain the regime of its ally, Bashar al-Assad. However, Tehran showed no retreat elsewhere in its wars and did not give any concessions in the nuclear agreement.
Therefore, Tehran now wants to link the fait accompli between the nuclear deal and its decisive rejection of Washington addressing the “guard”, thus protecting the two from the measures. Tehran may agree to introduce the ballistic missile element into the nuclear deal seriously if it is guaranteed to protect the Revolutionary Guard from actual actions by classifying it as a terrorist. They are aware of the importance of the American president’s challenge of automatic ratification of its implementation of what is required of it, within the framework of the nuclear agreement, not because it believes that this will lead to the rupture of the agreement – and the disruption is not possible now – but because the abolition of automatic or involuntary means that Donald Trump is throwing the ball in the court of Congress. This is a danger to Iran. What it means by withdrawing ratification is that Tehran is committed to implementing the agreement every 90 days , in other words that Donald Trump does not want to sign a testimony that Iran is doing what is consistent with his criticism of the solidity and substance of the nuclear deal, which he considers to be one of the worst agreements. This does not mean that he is about to tear apart the agreement. If he wanted to open that door, he would have the right as president to declare that the agreement was not in the national interest of the United States, regardless of whether it was implemented by Tehran or not. The question that arises in this context is what is the relationship between the nuclear agreement and the Revolutionary Guard?
The United States, along with parties that supported sanctions against the Revolutionary Guards and the Iranian missile program, tried to separate the military establishment and the nuclear file by imposing successive sanctions from the first day of the agreement. Tehran treated the matter as a violation of what it described as the essence and spirit of the agreement, which is supposed to suspend the imposition of new sanctions. But Washington has dealt with it in its legal aspects, arguing that it is not primarily linked to Iran’s nuclear program. Iran, for its part, insisted on dealing with the missile file as separate from that nuclear device, and the Revolutionary Guards carried out a number of tests on ballistic missiles, which Washington described as a violation of the agreement. But Iran’s political and military officials saw it as having nothing to do with nuclear weapons, because Iranian missiles are defensive and non-nuclear warheads, the kind prohibited by the text of the deal.
What Donald Trump may want is to reopen negotiations on the missile issue, but he does not suggest the expansion of negotiations to include Iran’s regional expansions. Perhaps in his mind the opening of that file is through the classification of the Revolutionary Guards as a terrorist but he is not about to tear the agreement apart . The question is, what measures will follow: Classification of the “Guard” as a terrorist, and withdrawal of the US president’s ratification of Tehran’s implementation of the nuclear agreement every 90 days? The issues are complex. The announcement of these two position without taking actual and serious measures will discredit Donald Trump and the Congress. The media rush to adhere strictly to the nuclear agreement with Iran is remarkable, in turn, reflects the willingness of this media to turn a blind eye to Iranian expansions in Arab geography at the hands of the “revolutionary ” Guards and even its willingness to reject the terrorist classification of the Guard whatever it does and wherever it is . There is a kind of acquiescence in the liberal American media to the idea of “no choice but to bow to the nuclear ambitions of Iran and North Korea. The “rolling” tone is the hint that a confrontation with Iran and a nuclear agreement with it will strengthen North Korea’s obstinacy on the grounds that America does not respect the agreements. Indeed, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un remembers the fate of Libyan Colonel Muammar Gaddafi as an example of what America is doing with those who renounce nuclear weapons, and Saddam Hussein’s fate as an example of those who agree to subject their country to serious inspections by the International Atomic Energy Agency. It is worth to be noted that the liberals in American media have decided to bow to the status quo and recognize that North Korea’s possession of nuclear capability is irreversible, just like Iran. They agree in practice to undermine the principle that has governed the nuclear issue for years, namely, “non-proliferation of nuclear weapons”, which in itself is the most dangerous.
The battle with Donald Trump is something, dealing with the nuclear file of both Iran and North Korea is another thing. The American media has the right to make the alarm sound from a president to whom it accuses of being “reckless”, “ignorant”, “arbitrary” and “improper to rule.” But it does not have the right to ignore the horrendous revelations of policies that it kept silent about and then wake up to criticize it, such as the George W. Bush war in Iraq and American policies that enabled an Iranian military organization out of the national army to impose its control in Iraq and to engage in the Syrian war to crush moderate opposition claimed by the Obama administration that it supports it.
Is it possible to say that a new phase of escalation between Washington and Tehran may be open on more than one track, especially after the differences reached the Revolutionary Guard, on which Iran relies in support of its regional expansion and nuclear ambitions, within the encrypted messages directed at Tehran, to respond more forcefully to the provocations of Iranian boats against American ships in the Arabian Gulf, and to strengthen American interceptions of Iranian arms shipments, such as those destined for Huthi militants in Yemen, Palestinian groups in Gaza, and the Sinai Peninsula. The expected confrontation between the United States and Iran of the previous foregoing will be within the limits to curb and reduce the Iranian influence in the region. But to suggest of the approach makes the nature and structure of political system in Iran a US goal which is likely to seek to alter Iran’s behavior and contain it. From Tehran to Pyongyang, US President Donald Trump finds himself facing a frantic confrontation inflamed on a hot plate in the entire Middle East.
International Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies