The Norwegian government issued a ban on the sale of any new car in Norway starting in 2025 working on liquid fuel (gasoline and Benzin ), as the proportion of new cars sold today in Norway and operating by liquid fuel only less than 50% (the other 50% operates on the electricity, ie, batteries or hybrid cars that operate with battery and liquid fuel), followed by the Netherlands in a similar decision to be applied in 2025 also, and France and Britain since 2040, but at the same time we discover that these countries are going to increase the purchase of electric cars because of the increase of Citizens demand, the proportion of electric and hybrid cars bought in France in the first half of 2017, about 25% of the cars; India has taken the same action to be applied in 2030, the first motive in India is to increase pollution in the atmosphere of liquid fuel cars, and ten other countries took similar procedures as Germany Austria, Spain, Denmark, Portugal, Ireland, Japan, Korea and China, which now make up about 40% of the world’s electric cars; so far eight US states have taken similar action.
The above dates are set by the governments of the countries, but what is the reality on the ground?
The surprising fact is that the desire of people to purchase battery-powered cars and to charge electricity on the ground is much larger and faster than the legal deadlines set by their governments, because people are very much attracted to their advantages and low operating costs. The problem in the past but even in the near futurewas the high price of the car operated by electricity , If you compare the Tesla, a luxury electric car to a car with the same capacity and specifications but with liquid fuel, the cost of liquid fuel in Britain, for example, is more than eight times the cost of a Electricity to charge the electric car battery to cover the same distance; but when the production of the first electric car five years ago was priced up to $ 150 thousand, and now the price of the same car but another new brand for 2017 about 35 thousand dollars, and the car became the first car In the proportion of sales in the US market, and Nissan Japan company began to manufacture electric cars and sell them at 30 thousand dollars and the future prospects in the possibility of manufacturing electric cars by many international companies at a price of about $ 20 thousand became possible within two or three years, The price is parallel to the cars that are operated on liquid fuel with a very simple operational cost.
The person who wants to buy a car after two years from now has no reason to prefer a liquid fuel car (gasoline) to the electric car with these specifications and the low operating costs!!!
Almost all of the world’s auto production plants have gone to produce electric cars, and many companies have decided to stop production of liquid-fuel cars only as a Swedish Volvo company that will stop manufacturing liquid-fueled cars alone from 2019.
The electric cars, as well as being economical, have many other advantages. They do not pollute the environment and the cost of maintaining them and its specifications have been developed compared to the electric cars that were manufactured in the past so it can be charge at one night that it was enough to cover 350 km and can be charged by fast charging devices .that has been installed in public places near cafés and shopping centers around the world, where when it is charged for half an hour it will be enough to travel more than 250 kilometers, and can walk at speeds of about 250 km / h. As a result of these features that all global economic suggest to the expectations that all global Car Manufacturers will shift from making liquid-fuel cars to manufacturing electric cars only. They expect a full change by 2025 because people do not want to buy liquid-fueled cars only for the high cost of their operation. Those who want to know more about it, they can review many of the world’s economic reports, such as the British Telegraph report on July 5, 2017:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2017/05/14/petrol-cars-will-vanish-2025-says-us-report/
Economists are likened to buying a liquid-fueled vehicle in 2025 as a Kodak camera on 20th-century movies.
What is the effect of this fact on oil consumption and prices?
Globally, about 68% of the world’s oil is consumed as fuel for cars. This means that global oil consumption will fall by 2025 to less than 50% of current oil consumption. This also means that oil prices will fall sharply, Global Outlook to a future price that can range from $ 15 to $ 25 per barrel.
How will Iraq’s economic situation be in the near future?
Because of the lack of export of Iraqi oil in half due to the lack of global demand as well as the drop in oil prices by half or a third of its price today, oil revenues will shrink significantly, and will not be sufficient oil revenues to pay a quarter of salaries of employees in the government sector at best, but tenth of salaries at worst; whatever the increase in taxes and fees , it will not be able to cover this large shortfall, and will stop the wheel of investment and reconstruction fully.
In addition, the construction of the Alesso Dam in Turkey will be completed and completed within a period of no more than two years, and the Tigris River will be greatly reduced and will become increasingly salty.
Therefore, the result is that the country will collapse completely in the near future.
What is the solution?
Global reports indicate that oil prices are stable and even partially risen until 2021-2022, four to five years from now, after which oil prices will drop abruptly and consumption will fall rapidly.
When I was Minister of Communications, I submitted an integrated study in 2011 to Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki and sent copies to the Secretariat and all the governors in all governorates to develop the private sector and attract young people and graduates to work within their own projects and not rely on oil resources , the prime minster was interested in this study and I received several comments from several bodies , but this study was neglected and nothing was implemented except the provision of soft loans to the industrial and agricultural sector by the Central Bank in 2015, but this will not be effective and achieves a real renaissance of the country if not within the integrated plan presented by me in the above study.
In 2012, it agreed with the global consultant company (Booz Allen ), to conduct an integrated study to develop the Ministry of Communications and identify the weaknesses and turn it into a joint profit organization as a mixed sector that will serve as an example to be followed by other ministries and granting shares to the employees who are working in it to work hard and sincerely ans sells some of the shares to citizens with low price to let the ordinary citizen to get benefit from it and initiated to suggest many leading projects that bring a lot of profit and renaissance of the country such as the leading educational project , telemedicine project , the project of the Smart City, the project of the Smart City, the project of the central cable connecting Europe and the East of the globe, all of a great profit. The project of the gates of access which has given to the ministry more than 60 million dollars annually, and the project of important information centers in Baghdad and several other provinces, as well as the security project for the security of Baghdad and the security of the Iraqi-Syrian border, but all these plans neglected after I left Ministry where Such plans do not give the ministry’s officials special benefits , their basic understanding is corruption to achieve their personal interests.
In more than one television program at the end of 2013 and the beginning of 2014, I have been alerting to the increase in world oil production on global consumption, which means the fall in oil prices, depending on World Bank reports and other global reports; oil prices have already fallen in mid-2014, But if there was a sense of responsibility from the rulers at that time, they would move to develop an economic policy to diversify sources of income to reduce dependence on oil, but to develop a practical and effective plan to build a solid economy that does not depend on oil, as so many countries in the world do not own oil? I can say with confidence that this could have been achieved in full if true intention, sincerity, efficiency and a well thought out and feasible economic plan were found!!!
I have put forward solutions in several television programs and articles written and published in the media in 2015 and 2016 on how to put in place a sound monetary policy to reduce loans, but there was no sense of responsibility for those in charge. The debt to Iraq to date is about 120 billion dollars, The Iraqi government borrowed more than 60 billion dollars for the years 2015, 2016 and 2017 and now will owe more than 20 billion dollars for the year 2018, how will we pay these loans and benefits ?! There are some defenders who claim that we will repay this debt from the rise of world oil prices! These statements are just fantasies, unfortunately my talk is in the valley and those who are in power are in another valley.
No , beware of a serious and fearful economic future for our country , more dangerous than ever , this is not my own analysis, but global economic studies; however, we still have four to five years to set the economic policy to diversify sources of income and not rely on resources of oil only , to promote the country in industry and agriculture and all other productive fields, which are many and can generate income to compensate the budget deficit with ease with the need to bring about a revival in the private sector and development and open the doors of foreign investment, but what I fear is not the existence of wrong and incorrect economic policy for the country , but Unfortunately, there is no economic policy in the government , noting that those in charge to economic position do not understand the meaning or definition of the term “economic policy”. We have not heard from them the features, plans and objectives to be achieved to formulate a sound and correct economic policy for the advancement of the country to get it out of the quagmire of the economic crises that are beset by today and to save it from an unknown and dangerous future and far more than the dangerous deteriorating economic reality we live it today. I can say with all confidence that it will be our last chance to save our country from inevitable collapse.
However , our hope in god is great for the existence of Iraqi competences and the presence of sincere people , perhaps , Dr. Haider Abadi , the prime minister , is one of them , but unfortunately , those who are in charge are of ignorant and the corrupt.
We hope that this situation will change to the best in the coming days, so it is not far away from God.
Mohammed Tawfiq Allawi
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies