The oil market is witnessing these days an active movement accompanied with anticipation and waiting by investors and traders in the oil market , For the meeting of the senior producers which is expected to take place in the mid of April in the Qatari capital -Doha.
These sights which were dominated by panic state since the collapse of oil prices in the second half of 2014, it seems today more calm and optimistic about the future of rates, after a gloomy period in which it dominated on the markets in the last period due to oversupply and fierce competition among producers.
this optimism and that it does not wait for a miracle in the oil markets to restore things to the way it was before the world ‘s oil earthquake that hit global markets for more than a year and a half, but there is a feeling of safe about the path of prices and that it will go in the right direction away from any terrifying collapses , as happened earlier this year when prices collapsed to $ 27 a barrel, which are considered by many experts as the bottom of oil prices which are rebounded after that to rise.
today, we are witnessing many of the data that may make markets await for shifts that will be a difference in the process of crisis of the oil prices and the markets in the coming days.
The investor’ s fears are continued to be increased because of oversupply in the wake of”OPEC” declaration of higher production in the current month to 32.47 million barrels per day compared to 32.37 million barrels in previous February by increasing the production of Iraq and Iran.
– Doha meeting on April 17 (April), a meeting which awaits by the investors in the oil sector and traders, where the outcome of the meeting and to freeze production would be an effect in clarifying the landmarks for the future of prices and the oil industry in general.
– Shale oil prices are now falling , also the Executive Director of the International Energy Agency , Fatih Birol stressed by saying : “If oil prices remain at current low levels, reliance on Middle East oil will rise by 75 percent at least.
– With regard to Iran , Birol said that« we wait and see whether Iran will be able to attract significant investment for oil production », pointing out that Iran ‘s Geology of oil fields are far more complex than the Gulf states as they require a lot of advanced technology to get the oil.
– the visit of Saudi King Salman bin Abdulaziz to Moscow, despite the fact that the visit will be mainly of a political nature , but the economy will be present, and this meeting may lead to the development of understandings at the next meeting in Doha.
– also oil prices are trending to rise in trades benefiting from the slip of dollar after the statement of the head of the US Federal reserve Janet Yellen and resulting to the decline in the dollar to push oil prices to rise , which encouraged investors who deal in other currencies.
– The declaration of Information administration for American energy in the last statement about the rise in crude inventories in the United States increased by 2.3 million barrels in the week ending on 25 of this March, while it was estimated of growth of 3.3 million barrels.
– pressure on prices due to the increase in world stocks as analysts forecast another increase in US crude stocks to record levels. Oil rose more than 45 percent since mid – February 2016.
– An analysis shows that there is a significant development that could help to raise the price of oil after June that shale oil production in the United States began to shrink with the closure of a number of operations of small business for the production of shale oil, following a drop in the price of oil to $ 35 in the United States, where it is no longer useful economically for small businesses to continue their operations. There are expectations of experts and traders in the oil sector that demand will increase after June due to low oil shale and the improvement of growth and the beginning of the decline in stock.
Less than a month is between the Saudi and Russia meeting with the rest of the top producers in Doha to discuss prices and a freeze on production in the wake of an initial agreement in February between OPEC members , Saudi Arabia, Qatar and Venezuela, in addition to Russia – and the sights are going to this meeting with interest, and here we go back to confirm that the experts of the international energy agency underestimated from the importance of this meeting on oil prices, noting that there are many factors that control the accuracy of the oil market, that the market share accompanied by fierce competition as it is now that flooded the markets with oil production and caused to the decline of prices to record levels, not to mention the global stocks and other technical matters affecting on prices, and the next meeting of the producers will be as a glimmer of hope for those working in the oil business and investors about the future of oil prices, but according to our expectations will not have a significant impact on oil prices.
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies