Oil markets are still in a state of active movement, and this was reflected on the opinions of observers and analysts alike Between optimistic for rising prices and the uncertainty by others.
a lot of analysis were motivated behind the rise led by oil prices in recent weeks as the price of Brent crude reached to over $ 50 a barrel, and the majority of observers saw of this rise is marked to the end of the era of the collapse in oil prices, and the stage of stability and balance sought by the markets.
In the report recently published by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries “OPEC” said, it “is likely to shrink the excess of supply in the market during the coming quarters,” which will introduce “a more balanced oil market near the end of the year .” But there is fluctuation and instability in the decision and policy of production reflected to the fluctuation of prices directly, the sources in the oil industry of the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia confirmed in April that it may increase its production to reach near high record levels during the summer months to meet domestic demand for electricity.
In the earlier report of it that the organization said it is “Basically, the surplus in the production is continuous , and production is still high,” although there are “indications that the ongoing status of the glut in supply is likely to fade.”
According to the “OPEC”, the demand rate must always remain at 94.18 million barrels per day, to a production level of 56.4 million barrels per day for non-members of “OPEC”.
the weekly report of the oil company “Crescent”, pointed out that these factors are the developments in energy markets and tracks recorded by the oil and gas markets, and evaluate and track of future movements of the markets, the movement of supply and demand, production capacities, and finally the number of producers, and all factors that put pressure directly on prices, and then affect the level of the investment revenues of existing projects.
The «International Energy Agency» indicates to some optimism for 2017, due to inflation and the exaggeration of the size of the world’s oil trade stock surplus .
Most analyzes agree that oil prices will not exceed the ceiling of 60 dollars a barrel, the instability in the global market led by a number of political factors and other technology, which will keep oil prices in the range of not more than $ 55 a barrel, and lead the return of Saudi-Iranian rivalry, to weaken the harmony in Organization, which leads the eyes of observers to the OPEC meeting in next September .
With respect to supply and demand, there is a surplus in the oil supply of 2.5 million barrels per day, with a trend towards an increase in supply as a result of expected achievement of Iranian production to the level of 3.8 million barrels a day to approach the goal of producing 4 million barrels per day, while Saudi Arabia’s production last May totaled 10.24 million barrels a day, and it is expected to stabilize at level much higher than the rate recorded last year.
Many factors led to the instability that prevailed in the oil market today, global huge stock, movement of supply and demand, production capacity, and the lack of discipline within the “OPEC” will make the oil market to be more complicated, and evaluate and track future movements of the market, and competition among producing countries within the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, and to increase the volume of production by some manufacturers, are all factors that will contribute to the oil market to remain in a state of instability, while the hopes of some observers remain pending on the meeting of the month of next September, however things keep moving towards stability and balance in the global market after the positive atmosphere that prevailed in the conference semi-annual of the Organization OPEC, which was held on 2 of the last June in Vienna.
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies