Economic interests play an important role in international relations, noting that the actions of states and its political behavior are in line with its economic interests, so the states are interfering in existed conflicts or create it for several goals including: control of raw materials, the conflict on the commercial ports and roads of communications , control on the markets. this is what we see today in the military interventions in the Syrian conflict, where Syria enjoys of many advantages that tempt the great powers to build strong relationships with it that may reach to the level of dominance over its political, economic decision , and among these advantages is its strategic location, overlooking the Mediterranean, Israel, Lebanon, Turkey, Jordan , Iraq , the Mediterranean makes it of great importance and its various and diverse economic potential .
Among those countries Iran, Turkey and Russia, which intervened militarily and economically in the Syrian affairs, to achieve a number of benefits, and economic , political strategic gains, try to restore its glories after the collapse of the Soviet Union in the early nineties.
Strategic aim of the Russian intervention in Syria, is to challenge the dominance of the United States in world affairs on the one hand, and to help Syrian President Bashar al- Assad ‘s regime in its war against the extremists who are the worst enemies of Russia , which is found in its intervention in Syria a chance to fight and prevent the growth of their abilities on the other hand as well that Syria is one of Russia ‘s arms industry clients, and one of Moscow ‘s geopolitical few sites remaining from the Soviet era in the Middle East.
The Russian operations in Syria is a review of the weapons of the aircraft and missile systems and military which is a propaganda to the Russian military manufacture to show the capabilities of arms for marketing it and the sell it .
Military experts of the US geopolitical intelligence said Moscow could not bear the expenses of military support to Syria for more than several months, as the cost of air raids and noncombat sorties about two million dollars a day at least.
They stressed that the launch of a single cruise missile from Russian ships in the Caspian Sea to targets in Syria at a cost of $ 30 million at least.
The expert in the analysis of strategic center Vasily Kashin said : Stanford center disseminated before the Russian military campaign in Syria that the Russian intervention in Syria will cost the treasury about half a billion dollars, and the cost of a cruise missile does not exceed 600 thousand dollars, not $ 30 million , adding that the aim of the dissimination of these exaggerated estimates is to frighten the Russian decision – maker of the economic impacts.
And it participates in the Russian campaign fifty fighters, ranging between bombers and multi – purpose helicopters and helicopters, while a Russian military numbers in Syria 1600 military men(1) .
The aim of the Russian intervention in Syria also to achieve internal gains mean a lot for the Russian President Putin that the Russian operations in Syria are keeping the Russian people away from the internal situation and increase the pride of patriotism and support for the president Putin internally, especially as the economic sanctions imposed on Russia after its annexation of the Crimea from Ukraine , it led to the high level of prices, and the low standard of living, education, and health services.
And the Russian intervention in Syria led , in addition to Western sanctions , for slowing the growth of the Russian economy by 3.8%, and the decline in the gross domestic product by 3.5% in the first half 2016, which means the difficulty for Russia to bear a burden of a long – term war , especially since the IMF data indicate growing the ratio of Russian citizens living below the poverty line compared to last year(2).
(2) the foreign strategic ,economic gains of Russia
Russia achieved from its military support to the regime of Bashar al – Assad several economic strategic gains , including converting the port of Tartus to a fixed base for Russian nuclear ships in exchange for removal most of the Russian debt on Syria, and make a deal of Russian weapons with Syria to purchase by ( installments or debt ): “MiG – 29 SMT fighter jets, defense systems of PANTSIR-S1 E. and defense missile systems Iskander and aircrafts type Yak 130, and two submarines of the type Amur 1650.
And about the arms sales the , Prime Minister of Russia , said: ” It is true that we supply weapons to this country, but its value is not imaginary, as probably worth hundreds of millions of dollars, while the total demand for Russian weapons was estimated by 15 billion dollars” (3).
The Syria represents , which occupies seventh place among the countries that buy Russian arms , an important customer for Russia as military contracts amounted to $ 4 billion in 2011, Syria has always sought to get the modern Russian weapons , including anti-tank and aircraft missile systems to improve its defense capabilities.
The Russian Navy forces began using the port of Tartus in the seventies, under an agreement signed in 1971 between Syria and Russia, since the Soviet era. Under the agreement , the port of Tartus hosts a Russian base for supply and maintenance, to support the Soviet fleet in the Mediterranean, Russia has struggled to develop and expand this base several years ago and so far, so that they can receive the huge Russian warships (4).
Russia, which has struggled to book a strategic place for itself in the Middle East in Syria away from its ususal traditional borders , to send a message to the world that Russia is still a strength to be relied on in the international scene , especially after the overthrow of its allies , such as Saddam Hussein and Muammar Gaddafi.
The most important gains obtained by Russia from its intervention in Syria was the exploration for oil and gas, where the Russian companies got of the contracts to explore for oil and gas in the Syrian coast , Russia hopes to get benefit from the vital site of Syria to control oil prices instead of Saudi Arabia.
East Mead Corporation has signed a contract with the Assad government includes conducting surveys and exploration for oil in the area extending south shore of Tartous city to the alignment of Banias City, in a depth from the shore estimated 70 kilometers long, with an average width of 30 kilometers and a total area of about 2190 square kilometers.
It also seeks to keep control over the gas market globally , in particular the dominance of the major share of the European market and European policy. Russia is fighting a war of gas pipelines that pass from Syria, the most important is the Turkish- Qatari line that could reach Europe, and methods of gas to Europe even if they were from Iran.
The truth is that the ambitions of Russia in Syria does not stop at this point, noting that the signed contracts between Russia and the Assad government are numerous that there is no room to mention , and it is believed that the most important of it were hidden from the public eye, and is concentrated in the areas of exploration, especially in the Mediterranean which is rich of underground wealth .
According to the newspaper ” The Moscow Times”, in addition of weapons, Russian companies invested a total of $ 20 billion in Syria since 2009, and if Assad lost power, these contracts would be abolished .
The question remains, after the Russian intervention in Syria has become a reality: Is Russia put an end to the war in Syria actually? Or it will fail and take what it is available for it of gains and be satisfied .
The economic consequences of the Russian military intervention in Syria :
military expert in the Research Center for Political Military – at the Moscow Institute of International Relations Harpatolo Sodikov sees that these military operations will not affect the Russian economy; because Russia is among the states which is manufacturing weapons and therefore it produce weapons and ammunition not used by the absence of war, then destroy these munitions when they expire, so they use those munitions in the war on Syria, and that the fuel used in operations will not cost more than what is spent in flight operations and training .
And an economic expert at the University of Moscow , Irina Filipva shed light on the negative side to intervene where the bill of losses would be borne by the Russian economy due to military intervention in Syria will be expensive, And especially in light of the suffocating crises experienced by the Russian economy as a result of European sanctions, because the increase in spending will lead to reduce expenditures on other sectors such as education, health, and thus affect the growth rates, and all joints of the Russian society, which will bear the consequences could be a prelude to economic setback-like crisis it suffered after the Crimean crisis, which the Russian ruble lost by 45% of its value.
And Russian military experts call for to accomplish the military mission in Syria within the boundaries of the Russian Defense Ministry ‘s budget; which means that it should be modifying their plans for spending on the Russian army exercises or reduce its investment in the development of military research, least to lead to the retreating of Russian army force.
The political gains of the Russian intervention in Syria:
Russia is seeking from the war in Syria to achieve several political gains, and most important:
- theRussian president hopes by the military intervention in Syria to regain the initiative in the Middle East, and hopes to have a larger role in the region, and get rid of from the international community to deal with Russia on the grounds it is a “rogue” state for the international system, as it imposed sanctions on it after the Crimea crisis.
- Russia ‘sdesire to maintain a Russian military base in Tartus ,which is the only military base of Russia in the Middle East.
- Russian state fears that the fall ofSyrian regime , strategic ally, will enable the United States and its allies to set up the project , which aims to transport gas pipelines from Qatar to Europe via Syria. Thus Russia can not pass many of its policies that the Europe reject, and in the case of progress in Syria, Russia can possess many of the papers of pressure so that it can bargain and negotiate with the West over economic sanctions imposed on it by the west .
- Protect its strategic ally of theSyrian regime, Iran and Iraq.(5)
In the framework of the impact of Turkish-Russian economic convergence to weaken the Iranian position in Syria, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Orugan visited Russia, and Russian President Vladimir Putin visited Turkey on October 10, 2016, where it was signed a historic agreement to build the pipeline, “Turk Stream” to transport Russian gas to Europe via the Black Sea, and the reopening of Russian markets for Turkish goods, and a pledge to resume project (Akkuyu), carried out by the company owned by the Russian government, “Rosatom” to build Turkey’s first nuclear power plant, and coincided with Moscow’s desire to improve its relationship with Ankara in the knowledge that the deportation of Turkey more at this stage will push it even more towards the approach of “NATO”, especially as the former Russian sanctions against Ankara impacted negatively on the Russian economy, many Russians traders wishing Turkish cheap goods , and suffer from the European and American sanctions and the collapse of oil prices and they need to finally to get the available deals in the Turkish markets (6).
Here it must be pointed to the relationship between Iran and Russia and the size of the military and the oil and gaseous cooperation between them over the past years and permanent coordination between the two forces against Western projects, but this does not mean that the reconciliation between the two parties is permanent noting that Syria may be the crossroads between the Iranians and the Russians, the fact that their interests in Syria are differed.
A majority of Syrians and Arabs and even the Syrian regime itself prefer of Russian influence on Iranian influence in Syria. There is no doubt that many parties will support the Russians in the face of Iranians in Syria, who expect to face major challenges in Syria; where the majority of the Syrian Sunni people have a bitter hostility with Iran with regard to sectarianism.
Even Alawites in Syria ,who are considered as affiliated to Shiites, opposed to Iranian influence, and prefer the Russian secular influence, especially that the Alawite sect in Syria are a secular liberal, open and firmly reject religious extremism that Iran is trying to impose on them in Syria.
Is Syria is witnessing in the coming days the falling of Iranian investment in it? Is the conflict between the Iranians and the Russians escalated in Syria in the coming days, or whether there would be a sharing of influence? And Will Syria be the refraction of the Iranian tide in the region after the An increase of Russian influence and after that the new American president, Donald Trump threatened to put an end to Iran? Will the Russians can extricate Syria from the expansion of the Persian project? Or that Iranian influence is very strong on the ground in Syria, while Russia’s influence is only a political and air influence? Haven’t the Iranians overcome the Americans in Iraq with the virtue of the military and religious power on earth, let alone the Russians who are very vulnerable on the ground in Syria? (7).
As shown above, Syria is important and necessary to Russia, especially that it was considering a return to the “Middle East” after the American retreat. And it is a strategic place to prove its power in the region and the world. Here’s an established fact that must be realized by the Syrians is that the international intervention in the Syrian conflict will lead to elongation timeframe for war and lead to further complications and difficulties in reaching a quick solution to end their suffering, and this requires from them the good play on the policy ropes by exploiting regional and international attitudes toward the conflict in Syria and employ it in the direction of their salvation and liberation.
Shatha Khalil
Unit Economic Studies
Translated by Mudhaffar al-Kusairi
Sources:
see (1) Http://www.aljazeera.net/news/reportsandinterviews/2015/10/16
: see (2) Http://suwar-magazine.org/deta
: see (3) of the Arab Democratic Center http : //democraticac.de
: see (4) Http://www.aljazeera.net
: see (5) Http://www.asharqalarabi.org.uk
: see (6) http://www.asharqalarabi.org .uk / 01/03/2017
: see (7) http://www.alquds.co.uk/ 14/1/2017
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies