A political vision of the reality of the elections in Iraq

A political vision of the reality of the elections in Iraq

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The  political blocs and parties, taking part in the Iraqi elections which will take place on 12 May 2018, seek to find a compromise formula for its future alliances in line with its objectives, ambitions and policy in light of the data on the political situation prevailing in Iraq.
The National Alliance represented by the Daawa Party and its leaders is trying hard to take control of the executive power in the rule of Iraq and work to prepare formulas to maintain its control over the helm of the premiership, which extended since the US-British invasion on April 9, 2003 and so far, but the circumstances that have passed during the past years differ from the current reality which is experienced by all parties and political blocs affiliated with the National Alliance because of political conflicts and verbal accusations and media statements among all the leaders of this alliance in addition to the splits that occurred in the organizational structure of some of them as occurred in the departure of Mr. Ammar al-Hakim for the Islamic Supreme Council of Iraq and the formation of the National wisdom Movement ( Al-Hikma ) .
All the transformations are a major obstacle and dilemma negatively affecting the possibility of compatibility between the parties of the Iraqi National Alliance, and here the regional will of Iran and its tools and authority and influence intervened on the Iraqi political decision and to control the shaping of the future political life in Iraq and one of the priorities of its objectives to continue the formula of alliance between all Shiite parties and blocs to ensure continuity of rule and to prevent differences that may affect the nature and conduct of the upcoming elections.
The real world trends on the political level indicate that Washington is working seriously to determine the course of the upcoming election process and seeks to establish its interests, taking into account the Iranian role in shaping the political life of Iraq.

The United States knows very well that without the political, military, logistical and security support of the countries of the international coalition, specifically Washington, all the field objectives witnessed by the military confrontations with the Iraqi security and military forces and terrorist leaders over the past years have not been achieved.
The shadow of the political dispute between the Kurdistan Alliance and the National Alliance will remain effective and influential on the conduct of the elections and its results, especially after the apparent division in the wings of the Kurdish parties and the difference in their position on the Kurdistan Regional Government and its relationship with Baghdad after the last referendum process, but the influence exists through the leadership of Barzani and his political leadership in the region which can be used clearly in future political alliances and challenge the choice of the next prime minister.

The United States realized this fact and is well aware of it. Thus, the dispute between Erbil and Baghdad began to be resolved and given an important aspect after the facts proved that what Washington, London and Ankara had done in dealing with the referendum crisis led to full field control of the general situation in Kirkuk governorate by the regime of Iran and the first manifestations is the investment of oil located in the wells of Kirkuk in favor of Tehran and the first shipments of crude oil have been sent to the refineries of Kermanshah to return to Iraq in the form of oil derivatives at high prices for the benefit the Iranian economy.

On the other hand, the fact that the Sunni political parties and their capabilities are affected by the general situation prevailing in their regions after the defeat of terrorism and its defeat led to the destruction of the infrastructure of the centers of cities, districts and other areas in all the provinces where the leaders of terrorism were found in addition to the displacement of millions of people from these provinces and leaving their areas , farms and their shops and accommodation in camps prepared for them in the outskirts of their cities, which is a painful political and social reality where the correct , balanced and regular results of elections can not be achieved in addition to the citizen has become distrust of the majority of deputies and members of provincial councils and members of political parties who did not reach to the level of his suffering and did not provide him anything during his ordeal, which lasted for several years, the period in which terrorism dominated the areas and set the foundations of oppressive treatment and persecution against him .

We have to realize that the political conflict in Iraq is dominated by two political forces and ambitions that differ in their goals, visions and aspirations within Iraq, one Arab represented by the Saudi role and the other regional represented by Iran in its political project, which was established after the American occupation and became one of its tactical and strategic objectives in the Arab region. Washington is moving between them and seeks to draw its policy in Iraq and the development of effective frameworks that control by imposing its future vision and the implementation of its interim goals in achieving a balance between all its allies in Iraq.

All these facts constitute a major factor determining the path of the future political process in Iraq and the results of the elections, which will be affected by the nature of the US, regional and Arab goals and therefore Iraq, will remain the ground on which all the political interests of Washington, Riyadh and Tehran are conflicting.

Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies