Many negative calculations , complex, diverse ,and contradictory , so the European Union is experiencing a crisis of Tehran – Washington, mobilization and counter-mobilization at all levels between the two countries, so that it is unable to protect its interests with Iran, and EU is afraid of Trump’s domination and dominance over European dignity and does not want him to lose at the same time , especially that it is not feel safe for Iran, which immediately announced its intentions, in final warnings to the world, to rise up for its security and safety, otherwise everyone will be exposed to destruction in the same ship of danger.
In recent developments, European countries have rejected new Iranian threats, no matter how they are covered by slogans to save Iran’s nuclear deal ,Tehran this time put its eggs in one basket and threatened to go too far if Europe, China and Russia fail to ease sanctions within 60 days.
European Union diplomatic commissioner Federica Mugrini expressed deep concern, and France, Germany and Britain – the three European countries signatories to the deal – expressed deep concern over what they called the provocative intervention of President Hassan Rowhani , and in a joint statement they said : ” We strongly encourage Iran to continue to implement its commitments under the comprehensive joint action plan fully as it has done so far, but we reject any escalating steps, strongly reject any final warnings, and we will assess Iran’s compliance on the basis of its performance with regard to its nuclear-related obligations under the Comprehensive Joint Action Plan “.
The European Union, which is moving in a very random way , and seems surprised by the escalating steps on both sides US and Iran , has finally resorted to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), leaving the task of monitoring Tehran’s compliance with the deal to it , amid obvious tensions inside the Union and internal and external pressure exerted by Trump on some EU member states to take tougher positions towards Tehran, especially after accusing Iranian intelligence of conducting assassinations in France, Denmark and Britain.
It is interesting that the recent assessment of the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) praised Iran’s commitment to and respect for the nuclear agreement in 2015, and the IAEA confirmed that it was the United States and not Iran that violated the agreement by re-imposing sanctions on the Islamic Republic in 2018 because US President Donald Trump is not convinced of the agreement he sees as the product of naïve thinking from the White House’s democratic administration by his predecessor, Barack Obama, that enabled Iran to tighten its grip on the Middle East, endangering the security of Washington and its regional allies.
Currently, Europe is turning its back to Washington politically and militarily in its crisis with Iran where European countries have taken a distance from the policy of the White House in the Arabian Gulf, as Spain withdrew a division that accompanied the aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln while France refused to enhance its military navy, and the same thing happens with Germany and Italy.
French military spokesman Colonel Patrick Stegher confirmed Thursday that Paris is only involved in the fact-finding about the exposure of anumber of tankers in the waters of UAE for attacks of unknown source so far. He denied any reinforcement of the French Navy in the Arabian Gulf, but only participated by the warships stationed there, especially in the Horn of Africa, or in the UAE by virtue of the defense agreement between the two parties.
In an important move, Spain pulled out a frigate “Mennedith Nunez 104” from the combat group accompanying the American aircraft carrier Abraham Lincoln, and justified its decision to fear the development of things from political control to a confrontation that it does not concern Madrid in any thing . The frigate is present in the waters of the Arabian Sea with the US aircraft carrier that did not enter the waters of the Arabian Gulf, but the frigate is no longer under US command, contrary to what it was until last Monday.
Italy does not wish to engage in any tension in the Arabian Gulf. The Rome Diplomacy denied that it had requested, at the request of the Pentagon, to present a special authorization for US forces, as the presence of US troops in Italian bases is fundamental and significant in every military confrontation in the Middle East .
As for Germany, its comments have declined on developments in the Arabian Gulf and the possibility of a war between Iran and the United States. Chancellor Angela Merkel has taken a position on the policy of US President Donald Trump since he came to power, and his remarks which she described on more than one occasion, provocative and inappropriate.
During the 1991 Iraq war, Washington persuaded the European Union to join the war and won support from half of Europe, especially the East, for the Second Gulf War, as Leaders like Tony Blair and Jose Maria Aznar were among the most vocal advocates of the war. At the moment, European leaders do not share White House officials, like John Bolton, any desire for war against Iran. This is despite the fact that the capital of Poland has been hosting a special summit on Iran since months ago. It was then thought that the summit was a prelude to dragging Europe into a war against Tehran.
One of the main factors that make Europe abandon Washington in the current crisis is its fear of the collapse of the nuclear agreement. Europe regarded the agreement as a success for international diplomacy and a model for resolving future conflicts. It rejects Trump’s position and calls for amending some of its provisions. The question that arises in this context: What are the options for the Iranian-American escalation?
In the face of European weakness and American bullying, Iran is also intensifying its positions and is directing a range of retaliatory threats in all directions especially the commercial aspect of the nuclear deal has not yet activated, and it has suffered huge economic gains and it has become too difficult to gain it , after Trump imposed harsh sanctions on Tehran, and the departure of European companies that wanted to invest in Persia, fearing the flames of sanctions.
Trump has already warned members of the European Union not to take any action that would avoid US sanctions, which are passed on to international and Western public opinion in particular as a mere attempt to remove the poison of the ruling regime in Iran and have nothing to do with ordinary citizens, although it is too early to say whether the ruling regime alone will be affected or will the people bear the consequences of the tragedy , if all efforts failed to avoid the Iranian-American potential confrontation, including the acceleration of the European Union’s plans to strengthen the role of the euro, challenge the dominance of the dollar and reduce Europe’s military dependence on the United States .
On the other hand, Iran is betting on the bad experiences of America outside its borders. It is an inexperienced force if we look at its failed experiences in the countries of the world, beginning with its intervention in the 1950 Korean War and deploying an insufficient force, where the North Koreans succeeded in making their strike succeed, forcing the United States to fight for three years and did not win in the end, and the North Koreans passed what they wanted.
Since the Second World War, the United States has not been involved in any major conflict except in the Desert Storm of the 1990s. It has succeeded by virtue of the cohesion of the international forces in the goal and the means, while failing alone in Vietnam, Afghanistan and Iraq due to its insistence on not learning from Rome, London, Paris and other European powers which refused to slide directly into the quagmire of war and always preferred to arm local forces with an interest in defeating their common enemy and provided the locals with minimal power and material assistance whereas the United States still exercised its hobby in the rushing just like the raging bull , so it becomes easy to tame and pushed it to an endless eddies of conflict.
Despite previous data , the Trump’s experience in the conflict is different, It is pushing a new school in the use of force, beginning by intimidating the opponent and continuing threat of military action, then resorting to a comprehensive economic war and adopting a variety of methods of sanctions and siege, and finally to use the military force , it is an experience that will be judged in the near future, if the efforts of calm did not succeed to defuse the crisis and restore calm in the region to square zero .
International Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies