By: Shatha kalel
The Way Forward: Smart Globalization
In the face of successive global crises – from the COVID-19 pandemic to wars, supply chain disruptions, and rising geopolitical tensions – many have begun to question the value of globalization. Some are calling for retreat and inward focus. But before deciding to abandon global integration, it is important to assess the complex impacts of such a move. What does ending globalization really mean for the economy, politics, and society?
Economic Impacts: Efficiency vs. Resilience
1. Trade shocks and rising prices
The COVID-19 pandemic exposed the fragility of global supply chains: factory shutdowns, export bans on personal protective equipment, and soaring prices of basic goods led to stockpiling and the launch of “local production” initiatives to compensate for shortages.
The war in Ukraine disrupted critical supplies such as grain, energy, and rare gases, causing global commodity prices to spike and forcing countries to seek quick alternatives. Redirecting production inward strengthens resilience but increases costs, as efficiency gives way to precaution and safeguards.
2. Slower growth and unequal burdens
Experts warn that decoupling from global markets leads to slower long-term growth, reduced innovation, and declining economic diversity, especially for small, trade-dependent economies.
While large corporations may adapt, small and medium-sized enterprises will face greater pressures, widening the gap in economic inequality.
3. Emerging markets hit hardest
Countries such as Brazil, India, and many African nations risk losing export opportunities and foreign capital inflows if isolationist policies take hold.
Economic conclusion:
Replacing efficient global networks with local or regional systems may offer some security but comes at the cost of growth and purchasing power.
Political Impacts: Nationalism, Rivalries, and Shifting Power
1. Geo-economics instead of globalization
Protectionist tools like tariffs, investment restrictions, and industrial subsidies are increasingly used for political and geopolitical purposes.
The rivalry between the US and China is a vivid example, with the return of trade wars and restrictions on technology and innovations.
2. Rise of populism and backlash
Historically, the uneven gains from globalization have fueled populist movements like Brexit, Trump’s election, and waves of anti-immigration sentiment.
3. Weakening international cooperation
Global crises such as climate change or pandemics require collective responses, which are harder to achieve in a closed and divided world.
4. Power shifts and new alliances
As Western influence wanes, China is strengthening its presence through initiatives like the “Belt and Road,” while Europe warns of over-reliance on major players.
Social and Cultural Impacts: Less Connection, More Division
1. Declining mobility and knowledge exchange
Tighter borders limit migration, academic exchanges, and training programs, reducing the flow of talent and ideas.
2. Cultural isolation
Less intercultural interaction increases the risk of intolerance and social divisions.
3. Worsening inequality
Already marginalized groups – such as low-skilled workers and migrants – are most vulnerable in a more closed global system.
Innovation and Technological Fragmentation: Progress or Isolation?
Global research and the development of advanced technologies depend on international collaboration. Abandoning this cooperation could lead to fragmented technological systems, especially in areas like semiconductors and artificial intelligence.
Initiatives such as the US CHIPS Act or the EU’s industrial strategy aim to strengthen self-sufficiency but face major challenges in efficiency and economic viability.
Economic Studies Unit / North America Office
Al-Rabetat Center for Research and Strategic Studies