The Future vision of Iran of the popular crowd

The Future vision of Iran of the popular crowd

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Iranian calls for transforming Iraqi militias  of the  “popular crowd” to the Iraqi Revolutionary Guards,  Iran-style experience, are falling within  the growing strength and ambition, of “the  military, political crowd  and consolidation it in the region as an  Iranian arm in the region . Iran did not hesitate to hide  its expansionist ambitions toward the Arab and Gulf region at any time .Just before the battle of Fallujah against the terrorist- al Daash , the Committee member on National Security and Foreign Policy in the Iranian parliament  , Mohammed Saleh Júcar ,called for forming “the Iraqi Revolutionary Guards”  similar to the  style   in Iran, through the integration of the Shiite militias in Iraq and make militia “Saraya al-Khorasani,” as  the core of it. He said Iranian MP Mohammad Saleh Júcar “The experience of the Revolutionary Guards  has become a successful   and a pioneer one for  the countries in the region.”  MP Iranian nominated   “Saraya al-Khorasani militia ,” to be the first nucleus for the  formation of the Iraqi Revolutionary Guards, pointing to support the idea since the first day to talk about it . He pointed out that the record of the Revolutionary Guard is “full of achievements.”

He added: “If  any country in the region wanted to form similar forces, like the Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps, we  would be ready in Iran to offer our experience and consultation in this regard.” He said that  Iraq  has to   apply  the Iranian experience regarding “the Revolutionary Guards, and we stand ready to provide the Iraqis  with the  pattern and structure of these forces,  enable Iraq to form its guard forces” . Júcar  pretended that the Revolutionary Guards experiment succeeded in Syria, Yemen and Iraq, and said:  the experience of “mobilizing people  to the formation  of popular forces taking hold of  the government  is the most important achievements of the Basij forces in Syria, Iraq, Yemen, and this style of mobilizing  the street is a private Balbasaj experience. ” He added: “Iran has had a prominent role in shaping the popular crowd in Iraq and the formation of the so-called forces of  (national defense) in Syria, and the Houthis experience in the occupation of Sanaa.”

In  conformity  with this trend  suggested  by Mohammed Saleh Júcar,   the  former leader of the  «Revolutionary Guards»  former Mohsen Rafiq Douste has announced  before several days  that Iran is fully prepared to assist Iraq  in if  thought of  establishing «Revolutionary Guards». He explained that his country has the «good experiences» in this regard, and can help Baghdad. He saw that  the Guard model «could  be well to  be followed , especially as  it « fought important battles of the internal and external level, and can serve  the  countries of the region with it experiments  ».

And  the  gravity and seriousness of the Iranian  suggestion is derived from  the events and field and political developments coincided with  it and perhaps the most important ones is   Hadi al-Amiri’s remarks, the leader of the Badr Organization, a close associate of the commander of the Qods Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, Major General Qasem Soleimani, where he accused the government forces  of “treason.” While Ameri believes that the Iraqi government ” is  subject to pressure from the United States,” he claimed that “the Iranians have much experience in the fight against terrorism and that the reason for the sensitivity to Major General Qasem Soleimani, who is in Iraq with the consent of the Iraqi government to help security services, is his success.” The Secretary General of the Badr organization stressed  that  the popular crowd is inspired from  the experience mobilization  in Iran and warned Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi from opening any front before entering Fallujah, in reference to the battle of Mosul.

And statements Ameri are only the tip of the iceberg of other Iraqi officials comments  that confirm the influencial presence of Iran in the Iraqi scene, especially after the Iraqi foreign minister, Ibrahim al-Jaafari, a statement, in which he stressed that the commander of the Qods Force of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, Qassem Soleimani, is an adviser to the Iraqi government, in order to justify his participation in the planning with the militias in  fighting for Fallujah.  this statement comes  to entrench the inability of the government of Baghdad for  the control in Tehran interventions seeking to implement the most important item of the project to export its revolution  which  is to create a copy of the Revolutionary Guards to be the largest military , political and economic arm for it   outside Iran, after the  attempt was failed  with Hezbollah.

These combined  developments reflect  Iran’s desire to establish a presence in Iraq, by converting the militias of the “popular crowd” to the recognized “military establishment” , in parallel with the weakening of the role of the Iraqi government, and the growing ambition of political leaders of  the militias, “the crowd, and the inability of the Iraqi government’s control  on the path of  these militias, and  Iranian  interventions, as the recognition for  Qasim Soleimani, as  a government adviser has come  to entrench this deficit. So  the Iranian offers are coming  to turn the militias into the Revolutionary Guards, in the reproduction of the experience of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard, to assert political hegemony over Baghdad, and  fix the legitimacy of the arms of it in the Iraqi state, and most dangerous is  the supposed  Iraqi Revolutionary Guards”  for  a wider military role in the region, according to  those who doubt about the  intentions of the Iranian regime. In this context, Mohsen Rafiq Douste statement  was not a media transient  ones  , and  are not taking into account the intentions, plans and results,  noting that the one who follows  to the formation of  sectarian militias in Iraq associated with the Iranian Corps of Al-Qods, led by Gen. Qassem Soleimani, he will know that the statement of  Rafik Douste represents the moment of declaration of the transition from militia stage, that was called by Iranian concept  as  the mobilization stage (Basij) to the stage of “Revolutionary Guard”, which is not only a military force and by, but a military , economic and political independent institution, have the final word in the intervention and decisiveness in all the affairs of state, government and society. Especially in critical times and in conflicts and popular demonstrations as well.

The choice of Iraq as a nucleus for the formation of the Revolutionary Guards  is not arbitrary, but as the weakest link governed by their power almost absolute on its parties and their leaders and governments since 2003 until now. And find today’s timely to announce the  stage of founding of the Iraqi Revolutionary Guards , why not, and the successive Iraqi governments have linked the Iraqi economic and financial system with Iran  to fund those militias created on the land of Mesopotamia , in which Iran will establish  from it  as Mohsen Rafiq Douste said Corps of the Iraqi Revolutionary Guards, to wreak Iraq  and the region with more booby-trapping and disassembly, and in this framework , several questions are raised notably : first,  which militias  will form the nucleus of the Iraqi Revolutionary Guard? Second: What is the goal of the Iranian regime from the  spread  of this experiment, and try to revive it in a number of countries ?, Third: Do the Iraqi Revolutionary Guard project viable in Iraq?

 the Iranian Parliamentary Mohammed Saleh Júcar  pointed out the outlines how to give directions for the formation  Revolutionary Guards Corps in Iraq by Iran, on the model of the Revolutionary Guards in Iran. Saraya  Al-khurasani  to be the first nucleus of the anticipated Revolutionary Guards Iraqi ,which was an echo  to the words of the commander of Saraya al-Khorasani, who had been questioned in the last March , why the  forces of the popular  crowd did not like the Islamic Revolutionary Guards in Iran? He stated that the popular militia models  buildup in Iraq, Syria and Yemen  pave the way for the founding of the Revolutionary Guards in those countries. “Saraya al – Khorasani, “was founded by Hamid   Taqawi , Gen. in the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, who was killed in December 2014, in clashes with the terrorist  al Daash  in Samarra , in the province of Salahuddin, north of Baghdad.  And  this  militia was formed in Iran of the Iraqi elements  led by officers of Iranian Revolutionary Guards, while an Iraqi element is serving as a general secretary of it called Ali al – Yassiri, leading its military  wing banner the  Iraqi religious man Hamid Algazairi .  the militia itself was fighting in Syria, specifically in the cities of nible and Zahra, as part of Iran ‘s effort to save the Assad regime, but was withdrawn from there to Iraq at the end of April 2016, according to Iraqi sites  militia “Saraya al – Khorasani , ” is one of the  special  brigades  related to “Quds Force” in Iraq  that belongs to the Iranian Revolutionary guards and is taking  from its military mark  a mark for it .

the  militia “of Saraya Al-khorasani  is linked to the Brigades” of the Iranian Revolutionary Guards, where it works under the direct supervision of it and the “Secretary-General” of this militia  Yasiri ,” declared in a television interview that “the movement” follow  the velayat – al-Faqih of Imam in Iran and do not follow the Iraqi regime because  Iraq did not declare, as  Yassiri said , for the velayat-e faqih “owe allegiance to Khamenei, because it provides us with everything we need of the support, and we believe that this is the road that will lead to the unity of the Islamic nation and its victory, which became clear now,” and explained that the dependence of the militia are for Khamenei, not to Sistani, “the  velayat is now, however, for Khamenei, who  directs the state policy in Iran and the Muslim world and therefore we must obey him, but al-Sistani, we respect him but he does not announce  the velayat and  does not lead the state, although he  intervenes in politics through fatwas and guidance only. “

Yasiri has confirmed that he does not recognize Iraq or others but only to the service  of Islam and  Ahl Al-Bayt is the goal, and we do what we the Islam want,”  Yasiri added “We do not take orders from the government of Iran but Khamenei ‘s being aguardian (velay) .” The militia is the military wing  of Iraqi “Islamic Taleaa Party , the vanguard” .Although the Shiite militias throughout  Iraq have political weight, but that the formation of one of them , at least according to the structure of the hierarchy of Iran ‘s Revolutionary Guards would make it an official political and military power in the country , especially that several forces of the popular crowd receive funding and training from Iran. In the case of implementing the invitation of the founding of Iraqi Revolutionary Guards and will be followed by the deployment of the Basij forces ,”general mobilization”   this idea  would be spread in several other capitals, and  Houthi group has recently announced the graduation of assassinations cell in Sanaa ,along the lines of Hezbollah model and training of its elements.

The Text of the commander of the Revolutionary Guards , the retired Brigadier General Mohsen Rafiq Dost, indicates  that the justification for the reproduction of the Iranian Revolutionary Guard’s experience in Iraq,  that it was”waging important battles  of the internal and external level.” This statement indicates, directly, to every Iranian interference in the region (Iraq, Syria, Lebanon, and Yemen), and even planting a military or espionage cells in Kuwait, Bahrain, and Saudi Arabia, according to the official charges. Iranians do not hide here, that the Revolutionary Guard have a broader regional roles that must also be carried out by “the Iraqi supposed Revolutionary Guard”  Iran, which has been active in recruiting Iraqi militias, and Afghan and Lebanon, and Iran in favor of the Assad regime in Syria, want to give broader legitimacy to its militias, and want to start from Iraq.

By doing so, “the Iraqi Revolutionary Guards” appears as a dream for “the Islamic revolution in Iran,” as Tehran would like to organize a new military arm in the Arab Gulf states, directly. Militias “popular crowd leaders did not hesitate,” in any days, to threaten the Gulf states. It has already to a militia leaders, “Abu al Fadl al Abbas,” Aws al-Khafaji, and Wathiq Battat and  of  Hezbollah of Iraq, Abu Mahdi Mohandes, that threatened the Gulf States, Saudi Arabia and vowed, specifically, carrying out attacks on its territory. The images of Saudi cleric, Nimr al-Nimr, and painted on the launchers of “the crowd” missiles, it  is  other symbolic incident,  confirms that these militias have intentions that it do not hide in the targeting of the Gulf states, as laid tiger images, in a reference to “revenge for the execution of Saudi Arabia to him,” by bombing the Iraqi city of Fallujah.

The Call for Iraqi Guard revolutionary  is an  issue that threatens Arab security in general and the Gulf in particular, is  to be considered as a the legitimization of the status of the Iraqi militia to be formed   which means more influence , which exceeded even now the Iraqi army ‘s influence and the Iraqi government, and  to be  merged under the name and structure of the Revolutionary Guards would mean the abduction of Iraq for Iran fully and tighten security grip on the military structures of the Iraqi security forces and institutions,  as if  Iran  has become on  the northern borders of Saudi Arabia. The seriousness of this call also because it comes just three days after the  revealment of  Iran ‘s ground forces commander, Brigadier General Ahmad Reza Bordstan that Iran  concentrated  5 military brigades to enter the Iraqi territory .   Bordstan said: “these ready forces are brigades of ground forces, and completed a reconnaissance operations on the other side from the Iraqi border, and are ready to engage seriously. According to the study of theAmerican Enterprise Institute, between 12 to 22 billion dollars will be for terrorist activities, supported by the Iranian Revolutionary Guards this year, the report confirms that the Revolutionary Guard supports the activity of terrorist organizations, such as the Houthis in Yemen and Hezbollah in Lebanon. Iran also sent billions of dollars and provide military assistance to Syria.

In the midst of the statements  and deteriorated field conditions in Iraq, the Iraqi Revolutionary Guard project may seem “viable”, but experts in the US Stratfor Center for Security and Strategic Studies think otherwise, Iraq is not Iran, and can not be copied the Iranian Revolutionary Guards easily. Factors that empowered the militias prominence in Iraq, much is the same factor limiting Iran’s ability to establish a formal militia in the country, namely, the political deadlock in Baghdad and sectarianism, which controls the political life, and the question of interest that could push the warring parties today to cooperate in order to repel the project; so that the Kurds and Sunnis are ready to work together, in particular to prevent the emergence of a unified force backed by Iran in  the country that would give Tehran more gravity in Baghdad.

There will also be a matter of conflict with other militias, such as the Saraya Al-Salam of Shi’ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr , so it is expected to erupt in Baghdad  a struggle with the political blocs  and  militias which are the least in preparation to support the plans of Iran, and it will be right, especially in relation to another factor preventing Iran from the creation of a security force  more influential in Iraq, namely the campaign against state regulation . when  the organization state in Iraq and the Levant “Daash”  began to seize territory in Iraq , Kurdish and  local Sunni factions were enthusiastic to cooperate    with Shiite militias  funded from Iran to fight the common enemy . But those common cause would only last for over a period in which the Islamic organization of the state dominated  over Fallujah, Mosul and other Iraqi territory, where there are attacks, and the  Iranian militia ‘s foes may  focus  their efforts soon to impede  Iranian targets in Iraq.  And  the Kurdish government in northern Iraq also poses a complex for the Iranians noting that Iran to deal  cautiously with the Kurdish movement in the north-west of the country, and this rebellion can be ignited if bothered  the Kurds of Iraq by seeking to tighten its control in Iraq in the way that harm their interests  absolutely .based on  all that, experts say, “we can understand that Iran’s efforts for the establishment of the Iraqi Revolutionary Guards will not lead to concrete plans  soon,” especially if it has also reviewed the Iranian experience with Hezbollah in Lebanon, where Tehran failed to make the party   has  absolute control over Lebanon, and collided with its plans  were collided  with the opposition of  the possession of a weapon and    did not  give the legitimacy.

Overall, we can say that the state of the sectarian divide in Iraq will not allow  to copy  the Iranian Revolutionary Guard experience, except in the case of  acceptance of  dividing Iraq on sectarian  bases .  so there is no way  in front of these militias but to swallow the state and dominate  Baghdad, and thus to establish the division of Iraq, or disband the militias and disappear, which Tehran does not want at all. From here, any Iranian role to transform the militias  of the “popular crowd” to the Revolutionary Guards comes to what was established by the militias governance  in Baghdad, and to ensure its legitimacy and continuity, and to ensure that Iran’s domination of the Iraqi decision, by force of arms this time, not by  the loyalty of Iraqi religious parties, as it is now. It is difficult to predict the end of the Iraqi experience of the militias of the “popular crowd” , but it is certain that these domination of these  militias on  the Baghdad means the continuation of the sectarian government, and its transformation into a sectarian  and militia  rule, that  ends any hope in the political process reform, and the integration of Sunni Arabs in the political regime in Baghdad, and  stop the circle of  revenge and  sectarian  exclusion   in the country. The  institutionalizing of  the experience of  the militias of  “the crowd”  means  to hit  the last hope  in the restoration of Iraq as a national state , which may include in  some time, citizens of different races, religions and doctrines.

Rawabet Center for  Research and Strategic Studies