By: Shatha kalel
Iraq recently completed its first comprehensive national census since 1987, marking a significant milestone for the country. The census results, announced by Prime Minister Mohammed Shia’ al-Sudani, reveal that Iraq’s population has reached approximately 45.4 million people. This includes both citizens and foreign nationals residing in the country, as well as refugees. The census also highlighted key demographic trends that could significantly impact Iraq’s economic planning, growth prospects, and social policies.
This article explores the economic implications of the new population figures, the challenges faced in conducting the census, and the potential impact of these findings on Iraq’s future development.
Key Census Findings and Demographic Shifts
The results of the 2024 census provide a wealth of information about the Iraqi population. Notably, 60.2% of the population falls within the working-age group (15-64 years old). This demographic shift indicates that Iraq has entered a “demographic wave” or a “demographic dividend,” a period where the working-age population outnumbers dependents, such as children and the elderly. According to the United Nations, this stage can present a unique opportunity for economic growth, as a larger proportion of the population is capable of contributing to the workforce.
The census also revealed that 36.1% of the population is under the age of 15, which reflects a relatively young population. This presents both opportunities and challenges for the country’s economic future. A youthful population has the potential to fuel economic growth through an expanded workforce, but it also places additional pressure on Iraq’s educational and healthcare systems. To capitalize on this demographic dividend, Iraq will need to invest heavily in human capital development, ensuring that its young population has access to quality education, vocational training, and healthcare services.
Furthermore, the census revealed that the average family size in Iraq is 5.3 individuals, which highlights the country’s large, extended family structures. This demographic characteristic suggests that social policies will need to consider not only the needs of the nuclear family but also extended familial networks, which may impact housing, social services, and labor market participation.
The Importance of Population Growth for Economic Planning
Iraq’s population has grown substantially since the last census in 1987 when the population was about 18 million. This dramatic growth, driven by a 2.3% annual population increase, is partly attributed to changing fertility patterns and demographic shifts that have occurred over the past few decades. While this population growth presents an opportunity for the country to leverage its human resources, it also presents challenges related to resource management, infrastructure development, and social services.
As Iraq’s population continues to grow, there will be increasing demand for jobs, housing, education, and healthcare. The economy will need to generate enough jobs to absorb this growing labor force, which will require significant investment in various sectors such as education, technology, manufacturing, and agriculture. Furthermore, the increased demand for public services and infrastructure may strain Iraq’s existing budget, which relies heavily on oil revenues, making diversification of the economy and sustainable development more crucial than ever.
Economic Implications of Population Distribution
The gender distribution in Iraq is nearly equal, with males comprising 50.1% of the population and females 49.8%. While this relatively balanced gender ratio is positive, the country’s socio-cultural and economic systems have often led to disparities in employment, educational opportunities, and political representation between men and women. The census results may spur a renewed focus on gender equality, ensuring that both men and women can equally contribute to the country’s economic growth. Policies aimed at empowering women in the workforce and politics could help maximize the economic potential of this balanced population distribution.
The population distribution also highlights the ongoing importance of the Kurdistan Region, which, according to preliminary data, has a population exceeding 6.3 million. This region, which has enjoyed a degree of self-rule since 1991, has traditionally been excluded from national census counts. The inclusion of the Kurdistan Region’s population in this year’s census is significant, as it will help ensure a more accurate representation of Iraq’s total population in future budget allocations and parliamentary representation.
Addressing the Challenges of Post-Conflict Demography
Iraq’s population growth and shifting demographics come at a time when the country is recovering from decades of conflict, political instability, and economic challenges. The post-2003 invasion period, the sectarian conflict, and the rise of ISIS have all had profound effects on the country’s population distribution. Large swaths of Iraq were displaced during the ISIS occupation, and many Iraqis have been living as refugees, both within the country and abroad. The census results provide valuable data for assessing the extent of displacement and may help policymakers design better strategies for resettling displaced populations and reintegrating them into society.
The census also highlights the critical need for economic diversification, as Iraq’s oil-dependent economy faces ongoing volatility. Oil revenues have been Iraq’s primary source of income for decades, but a rapidly growing population may outstrip the capacity of the oil sector to support the nation’s needs. This demographic pressure could drive policymakers to explore alternative revenue sources, such as developing the manufacturing, agriculture, and services sectors, while also promoting private-sector growth.
Long-Term Economic Forecasts and Policy Recommendations
In the long run, the demographic trends revealed by the 2024 census could offer Iraq a window of opportunity for sustained economic growth. However, this opportunity is contingent upon several critical factors:
Education and Workforce Development: Iraq’s youthful population can be an asset, but only if the country invests in quality education, vocational training, and job creation to prepare its young workforce for the demands of the labor market.
Infrastructure Investment: The growing population will require significant investment in housing, healthcare, transportation, and other infrastructure. This will require coordinated efforts between the public and private sectors to ensure that Iraq’s infrastructure can keep pace with its population growth.
Economic Diversification: With an annual population growth rate of 2.3%, Iraq must prioritize diversifying its economy to reduce its dependence on oil revenues. Developing industries such as renewable energy, tourism, and technology could help create new job opportunities and ensure the country’s long-term economic stability.
Social Safety Nets: Iraq’s large number of children and dependent populations underscores the need for comprehensive social safety nets, particularly in healthcare, education, and family support services.
Gender Equality: As Iraq’s population is almost equally split between males and females, addressing gender imbalances in education and employment will be critical for maximizing the potential of its human capital.
Conclusion
The 2024 Iraqi census provides an invaluable snapshot of the country’s current demographic situation, offering insights into both its opportunities and challenges. While Iraq is entering a period of potential demographic dividends, leveraging this opportunity will require substantial investments in human capital, infrastructure, and economic diversification. If the country can address the needs of its growing population effectively, it may set the stage for a more prosperous, balanced, and sustainable future. The census data will be crucial for shaping Iraq’s policies and guiding its long-term development strategy in the coming decades.
Economic Unit/North America Office
Al Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies