By : Shatha kalel
Amid the recent military escalation between Iran and Israel, followed by U.S. airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, the global shipping sector has entered a new phase of tension and disruption. Attention is now focused on the Strait of Hormuz, the maritime artery through which nearly 20% of the world’s oil exports pass, and which is now at risk of being closed or restricted — a development that threatens severe economic consequences.
Maritime Threats Extend Beyond Hormuz
Warnings from the Greek Ministry of Shipping, which urged Greek vessels to avoid transiting through the Strait of Hormuz, reveal the scale of international concern. Greece, as the world’s largest owner of oil tankers, holds significant influence over global shipping movements. Any change in the operating policies of its fleet could temporarily redraw the map of oil supply routes.
However, these warnings clash with economic necessities. For many shipping companies, the Strait of Hormuz is an indispensable corridor. Abandoning it would mean incurring substantial losses or resorting to longer, more costly alternative routes. For this reason, some major companies like Maersk have continued using the strait while raising their security alert levels, while others have opted to reassess the risks.
Rising Shipping Profits: A Warning Sign, Not a Strength
Oil tanker profits have surged by nearly 90% since the start of the Israeli airstrikes. While this may appear to be a temporary gain for the sector, it actually reflects the mounting dangers. When freight rates rise due to security fears, it does not indicate genuine prosperity — it signals chaos and instability.
Geopolitical Effects: From the Gulf to the Red Sea
Threats are no longer confined to the Arabian Gulf; they have extended to the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, where Yemen’s Houthi group has issued new threats against American vessels. Despite a previous truce, any new escalation could collapse it, making maritime routes between Asia and Europe through the Suez Canal increasingly hazardous.
The heightened threat levels announced by the Joint Maritime Information Center and European naval forces reflect growing recognition of the danger. If the scope of attacks expands to include ships not affiliated with the U.S. or Israel, global trade could face its worst maritime crisis since World War II.
Possible Scenarios and Their Global Impact
Continued Escalation: Would lead to higher oil prices, disrupted supply chains, and increased pressure on energy-importing economies, especially in Europe and Asia.
Closure or Restriction of the Strait of Hormuz: Would be catastrophic, reshaping the global energy map and possibly prompting major powers to intervene militarily to ensure freedom of navigation.
Temporary De-escalation: If tensions are contained, conditions might gradually stabilize. However, confidence in the security of shipping routes will remain shaken, and fears of renewed conflict will persist.
Conclusion:
The current crisis is not just a regional conflict between Iran and Israel — it is a real test of the global maritime system. The shipping sector, long the backbone of international trade, is now under fire. The consequences go beyond oil and prices, affecting food security, industrial stability, and political order in many countries.
The solution lies in a combination of effective diplomacy, international security coordination, investment in alternative transport routes, and efforts to defuse political tensions in the Middle East.
Economic Studies Unit / North America Office
Al-Rabetat Center for Research and Strategic Studies