Mosul Historically:
Mosul is Iraq ‘s second largest city after the capital , Baghdad, and a population of about two million people, and it is the center of the province of Nineveh in northern Iraq , known by this name for being the meeting place of several roads connecting East and West, and it is a commercial center since the sixteenth century; by virtue of the relationships that linked it with neighboring towns, and the most important markets of it are Nabi Yunis market and Aserjkhanh market and Bab Al- Saray and the Bab al-Tob.
And it was the most important grain exporters in the region in the eighteenth century, through a commercial river line, established in the second half of the twentieth century across the Tigris River and extends from Mosul to Basra through Baghdad.
And Mosul as known in the twenties of the last century as oil export centers in the north, where agriculture has expanded and diversified after the completion of some irrigation projects such as Mosul Dam (formerly Saddam Dam) and the Great Zab River (al-zab al-Kabir).
In the nineties of the last century, it suffered economic recession due to the blockade imposed on Iraq, and the consequent migration of many of the labor force and scientific cadres.
After the occupation of 2003 , the situation of the province , as with the rest of the Iraqi provinces suffer poverty, unemployment and marginalization, and in 2011 Mosul has seen protests to demand the departure of US forces completely, and the resignation of the Maliki government as part of a series of protests that gripped Iraq, and on the tenth of June 2016, the city was dominated by militants of the organization of Daesh , which led to the destruction of its economy completely, killing its inhabitants, and the displacement of hundreds of thousands of them.
Daesh destroyed more than 30 archaeological sites, all of which belong to the heritage of the world civilization, and the ISIS traded with all things that can be sold from the monuments in the black market, and destroyed what can not be sold, and what was destroyed includes all the remains of the ancient buildings and statues in the city of Assyrian Nimrud (thirteenth century BC) , and the ruins of historical city of Hatra in the Iraqi province of Nineveh (third century BC), and the ruins of Hrzquin north of the city of Mosul , the capital of the Assyrian kingdom in the era of Sargon II (eighth century BC).
The terrorist organization finally added another heinous historical crime to his crimes, as in the dawn of the 21.06.2017 ISIS blew up the mosque of Al – Nouri (Jami an-Nuri) and the historic al-Hadba minaret when Iraqi anti – terrorism forces advanced and became in a distance of fifty meters from the organization sites . the mosque bears the name Al – Nouri, according to the king Noureddine Zanki, the unifier of Syria and the governor of Mosul, who ordered to build the mosque in the year 1172, and the leaning minaret of Hadba is located on the side of the mosque , which was once the minaret of the old mosque Nouri, which was the rest of what remained of it, and the minaret is symbol of the city, it is printed on the Iraqi paper currency of ten thousand dinars category.
Mosul Economically :
The province of Nineveh is an important province of Iraq economically , as it includes large areas of agricultural land “, and it has great potential , where Iraq ‘s agricultural plan was set on this basis , but the organization Daesh controlled on the belt of wheat in Iraq worth $ 614 million per year, divided into 750 thousand tons of wheat worth $ 495 million and $250000 of barely worth $ 119 million.
Deputy of the Iraqi Minister of Agriculture, Mahdi al – Qaisi, said that “Daesh has wreaked havoc on Mosul’s economic capabilities , where it took possession of million tons of wheat and barley in the province of Nineveh, where the price per ton of wheat worth792 000 Iraqi dinars, and the price of a ton of barley worth 562 000 dinars, and managed to smuggle part from it through t“ he Syrian city of Hasaka, in addition to a large number of livestock , “noting that” the agricultural sector was shaken by the control of the organization Daesh in Hawija district in Kirkuk and other areas in Diyala, Salahuddin and Anbar. ”
Also it seized $ 430 million from the Central Bank branch in Mosul, in addition to two billion dinars from private banks and their branches.
And the organization destroyed of about 80% of the infrastructure of the right coast of the city of Mosul over the past two years, as Technical Advisor to the Governor Abdul Sattar al-Habu said, adding that ” the province needed funds for reconstruction as soon as possible to end the era of criminals Daesh, and open a new page away from the devastation and destruction “.
He pointed out that “people of Mosul have contributed significantly to restore services to the left coast, and we depend on these trends on the right side as well.”
Since 17/10/2016, Mosul is witnessing a military liberation operations from the organization Daesh with the participation of about 80 thousand fighters from the Iraqi army and the crowd popular and supported by coalition aircraft, causing considerable damage to infrastructure, particularly in the left side (east) of which the government announced in January 24 that it was fully restored.
According to Iraqi government officials and local sources from within the city of Mosul, most of its infrastructure went out of service; as a result of targeting by the international coalition missile and indiscriminate shelling of the city.
And that ” the majority of hospitals, bridges and government buildings went out of service too,” including 5 bridges in the city of Mosul were destroyed, in addition to the largest 8 hospitals were destroyed, private and the government, and the most recently was the al-Salam Hospital, as well as the destruction of other government buildings, houses, roads and main streets; as a result of continuous shelling.
MP for the province of Nineveh, Majid Chenkali, acknowledged, on his part, of destroying 80% of the infrastructure of the city of Mosul, calling on security authorities to speed up facilitating the return of displaced persons to the left coast of the city areas, security checks and the granting of security clearances for their return to their areas after securing them and provide all services and speedily re – reconstruction “.
The bridges and hospitals are the most prominent infrastructure that have been destroyed in the city of Mosul, since the control of the organization Daesh the city in the summer of 2014, and
also textile mills, sugar, clothing, dairy, pharmaceutical , and the factories of the private sector, flour, and Silos have been destroyed , and the destruction included five switches, and eight hospitals , government and private, with dozens of clinics.
The education sector has its share of this destruction included the University of Mosul, technical institutes, schools, kindergartens, and the private sector, in addition to the water projects that has been destroyed as a result of indiscriminate and deliberate shelling .
A lot of talk these days about the consequences of liberalization of the city of Mosul and Nineveh province as a result of Criminality of Daesh and Salafi Jihad, and here I see it is necessary to analyze the internal situation in Iraq a thorough a comprehensive and accurate analysis and look at it from various aspects. This article will be the first part of three articles on Iraq after the liberation of Mosul, as in the second part we will try to analyze and predicts the role of the international coalition and the geopolitical situation in the region and Iraq, and in the third part and last we will try to predict the future of the popular crowd and the important data to the security of the country.
It is also necessary to ask fundamental questions, they are: What is required from Iraq after Mosul? Which Iraq do we want, unified with its current borders or divided on the political foundations stem up from a policy of the imposition of political reality? Federal or confederal Iraq? Or central Iraq, or provinces with new and broad powers?
And the organization dominated over 80 oil field, produces approximately one hundred thousand barrels per day, and in the early days , ISIS used primitive methods of oil extraction but managed to develop it by relying on the staff of the oil companies and its foreign fighters working in the oil sector and the use of modern technology seized by it , and then it began to produce about 50 thousand barrels per day, and sells it to mafias at prices ranging from $ 10-25 per barrel. The Iraqi Oil Minister Adel Abdul Mahdi , the former Iraqi oil minister confirmed that Daesh sells the “36” thousand liters of crude oil at a price of ten thousand dollars.
Real Estate:
The organization before the liberation of Qayyarah , exports daily nearly one hundred cars full of oil , the price of each one three thousand dollars after the extraction from oil wells , “noting that” the second source for the organization Daesh is the dominance of the real estate of the Ministry of Municipalities and the Sunni Waqf , where possess hundreds of shops and public squares and reap from it monthly profits estimated by two billion Iraqi dinars . ”
Abdul-Mahdi stressed that “the organization Daesh owns the real estate file and knows all details about it, after he got it during the occupation of the Mosul , and earns a lot of money from it,” noting that “the organization has created many shops and yards of parking in addition to receiving Zakat funds charged yearly from the citizens. ”
He added that the” The organization rent a meter of Albesttiyat (open air shops) in popular markets in the province of Mosul at a price of 150 thousand dinars, while street vendors pay a monthly 10 thousand dinars,” pointing out that “every citizen goes to hospitals must pay five thousand dinars, while school students pay monthly 15 thousand dinars “, and every small car paid 25 thousand dinars and medium – sized 50 thousand dinars, and the truck 120 thousand dinars.
“The organization Daesh produces electricity from the cities of Mosul and al-Riqqa , and the oil refining for the production of diesel and gasoline from refineries that were under his control , and concerning the food , they are dealing with Kurdish and Turkish mafias to import food for their areas in addition to domestic production , ” noting that “Daesh deals with farmers of term system in the production of agricultural crops.
And the organization Daesh seized 430 million dollars from the Central Bank branch in Mosul, in addition to two billion dinars from private banks, which has ten branches.
According to World Bank estimates, more than 40% of the population in areas controlled by Daesh living in poverty, but according to our sources , Rawabet center, more than 60% are in extreme poverty, and observers believe that the budget does not provide a lot of opportunities for them after the restoration of their areas of Daesh, and they set an example of what happened to other regions such as Anbar and other Diyala province , which the people continue to suffer hardship after the government regained the control over it .
Returning to the budget amounting to (approximately US $ 85 billion) , down 6% from the budget for the year 2016 ‘
and it include the allocation of loans and aid from Germany, Britain and the United States for the projects of rehabilitation and reconstruction in the restored areas from the control Daesh noting that the largest amount of spending cuts ( to meet the requirements of the lenders of international institutions ) was borne by the citizen with the increase of the prices in basic services and lower of staff salaries by 3.5%, from the largest item of the budget (12 trillion dinars) dedicated to the war against Daesh, this is not a new allocation in the budget for the PDF and tribal crowd determined on the basis of the numbers involved in those militias.
Impact of community Peace on the Iraqi economy:
Community peace is mutual respect for all religions, nationalities and ethnicities (components of the people) in the state, and the social and economic studies indicate that the best example of this is the state of “United Arab Emirates” How to live 200 different nationality of different religions, nationals and ethics with components of a people who has its own privacy without the intersection based on equilibrium without melting.
And that this coexistence positively reflected on the strong economic growth, which results from the high living standards of UAE individual and security stability of the community. It is worth to be noted that the UAE has achieved the first place in the world in peaceful coexistence, and Britain Second, America third, according to the United Nations assessment in 2015.
In spite of all this wealth possessed by Iraq, in the field of oil, agriculture, gas, and livestock and plant and industrial minerals wealth, and other wealth, especially to oil, which Iraq’s budget depends upon it by almost 95%, but the people is one of the world’s poorest people, and its educational institutions occupies the last rank in the field of scientific and technological development.
On the relationship between peace and the economy, and the impact on society, and prosperity of Mosul society through them and the most prominent benefits of them, the strategic expert Azim al – Khafaji pointed out that peace and political stability are the important pillars in achieving economic development in terms of educational, health, housing aspects and the completion of infrastructure.
– as food prices reached to very high level so that the citizens can not buy it: the price of a kilo of sugar amounted 125 000 Iraqi dinars and 100 thousand dinars a kilo of tea, 20 thousand dinars a kilo of bulgur, 25 thousand dinars a kilo of of rice, 35 thousand dinars of cooking oil canister , 25 thousand dinars a price of tomato paste box , million dinars a price of fifty kilo of flour.
Here we ask whether the occupation of Daesh of one – third of Iraq is sufficient as a serious indicator to the fragility of the country ‘s administration and the crisis political process and weak social cohesion? Or we (God forbid) need another sign, the worst of it, and we must not forget the extent of its repercussions.
And that ” the country’s economy lost a lot due to the exit of it from government control, noting that the criminal organization managed, as a part of its organized campaign against the historic ruins and the Iraqi and Syrian monuments, to demolish the historic gate of mesqa” Mashka built during the reign of the Assyrian King Sennacherib 705 BC, the Palace of the King of the Assyrian state in the province Mosul.
And the organization disseminated images of the ruins destroyed by its elements in the Iraqi city of Mosul of Nineveh province, and those images showed the destruction of the Palace of the Assyrian King “Sennacherib” and his walls, and the historic gate of the mesqa.
And the Ministry of Culture and Tourism and Antiquities of Iraq said that “Daesh washed away and destroyed the gate of mesqa, one of the archaeological gates of Nineveh with parts of the wall of the ancient city and the transfer of the Assyrian stones to unknown places.” , After a number of local residents circulated news of this civilized tragedy .
The terrorist organization Daesh earlier managed to the destruction and the demolition and blow up many historic monuments in the Iraqi city of Mosul, most notably the Mosul Museum, and the ruins of Hatra and Nimrud up to the gate of Mesqa since the control of the city in the mid of the year 2014, in addition to the destruction of the ruins of the Syrian city of Palmyra (the center of the country) before the Syrian army able to liberate it.
The phase of post Daesh raises speculations of many political analysts, since the phase of the liberation of Mosul is approaching to its final stages, and it can be said that the stage of the liberation of Mosul and defeat Daesh militarily ended practically, after it became more than 80% of Mosul under the control of Iraqi forces, the other ratio 20%, military operations are continuing to liberate it and is in the final stages.
Therefore a clear strategy must be pursued by the Iraqi government in post – Daesh, namely:
– Encourage and support national reconciliation and make it over the different ethnic, national and religious affiliations and above political differences , so the Iraqis can rebuild what was destroyed by the terrorism in the areas devastated by terrorist Daesh , and infrastructure in the city of Mosul destroyed by military operations such as hospitals, schools, universities , government departments and important archaeological areas globally.
– re – displaced people and to provide basic services and rehabilitation of the citizens psychologically especially young people and children, and must here focus on civil society organizations and international organizations, as well as state and clerics in order to eradicate Aldaash thought, because the defeat of Daesh militarily does not mean the defeat intellectually, and therefore there must be an intellectual strategy to fight those deviant ideas.
Economic challenge
because of the war on terror three years ago, most of the state budget goes for military purposes, but the revenues of the Iraqi economy depends 95% on oil, since prices fell in the global market, it means that Iraq will be unable to restore damaged infrastructure alone unless supported by international organizations and other friendly countries like the United States, the European Union and the countries of the Arab Gulf.
The political challenge
there are several parties competing in extending its influence over Mosul administration after its liberation , including the Kurdistan region and the federal government, as the region has its point of view in the areas that have been liberated by the Peshmerga forces and called the disputed areas by demanding annexation them to it , and at the level of Mosul itself , there are several nationalities and ethnicities and religions , Will they be able to agree to maintain and manage the province in a fair way for all? As there will be pluralism in the security decision may lead to a kind of friction between the parties on the other hand, especially that Iraq is on the verge of provincial councils and parliament elections earlier next year.
In view of the importance enjoyed by the province of Mosul as the second city in Iraq after Baghdad , in terms of population and represented by 34 deputy in the Iraqi Council of Representatives, also contain a mixture of nationalities, religions and races, and therefore what is required to combine all efforts by those components in the city administration to achieve stability, and that it is subject to an agreement and consensus between the federal and provincial government and regional and international support, and that the best solution to manage the security file that is entrusted to the people of the city themselves , supported by the federal government because of the diverse and complex demographic nature of the city .
The Bottom line that armed manifestations and disruption of national security in the communities is one of the factors affecting negatively on the economic development of the society. In this case, the economy is to be the first loser because of these conflicts, because the economy is booming generally directly with the increase in the level of security in the country.
In other words, whenever the security situation for any society stable, the economy is at the height of its growth stages, and vice versa, as the economy is at its lowest level if security is unstable.
Iraqi economy suffers many problems in recent years, not because of military spending in the fight against Daesh only, but because of the decline in revenues with a fall in oil prices since the summer of 2014 , although the Iraqi government has put pressure on companies to increase production but is clear that the Iraqi fields produce maximum power of it, here it is determined to us whether the Iraqi economy can rehabilitate areas dominated by Iraqi government in terms of reconstruction and employment opportunities for people who suffer poverty under the control of Daesh.
Reconstruction of Mosul:
committee of reconstruction in the Nineveh province estimated the need of the province to more than $ 30 billion for the reconstruction of bridges, hospitals and other infrastructure where, at a time when the parliamentary Commission services and reconstruction instructed the Ministry of Construction and Housing to pay attention to the infrastructure projects in the business priorities.
the Commission pointed out , that the “Steps to restore the province to what it was in the past , it needs for three phases, the first is campaigns of rehabilitation and the work to clear the debris and waste and the opening of roads”, indicating that “what was done by Mosul municipality and engineering teams from the central and southern provinces in this area resulted in the opening many of the streets, including street 40 km in the Hamdania area and street along the length of 70 km in the Hamam al-Aleel area, in addition to other streets in the rest of the districts and sub – districts, as the completion rate in those projects reached to 75%, and what was remained of the repairing of gaping holes in the streets and water pipes need the support of the sewage Directorate. ”
“The second stage is to restore the spirit of the movement of the city, and this is what the people of Mosul is suffering,” noting that “this issue will be resolved soon with the help of local and international organizations through the payment of daily wages of workers and sustain the cleanliness of the city and the coordination of work in it, where the relevant ministries started to help by providing workers’ salaries, as well as the United Nations Development program (UNDP), which began to encourage young people to work to eliminate unemployment and clean up the city. ”
Chairperson of the Committee of Construction in the province pointed out that “the most difficult stage is the reconstruction and construction for all public buildings, due to the exit of the five bridges from the service completely in the city, which were linking between the sides, in addition to the difficulty of rehabilitation hospitals and infrastructure and other services such as electricity and services, which the proportions of its damage reached to 60 percent,.
The rate of destruction in the water networks has reached 65%, while the varied the ratio of destruction of the rest of the services between 60 and 70%. ”
Khip expressed about her optimism for the reconstruction of what has been damaged with the existence of “donor countries and the Fund for the reconstruction of the affected areas where it can restore the province to its normal status, what contributes to the return of displaced persons to it as soon as possible after its liberation.”
And the member of Commission services and reconstruction in the House of Representatives Beeston Zangana said: “The committee instructed the Ministry of Construction and Housing and municipalities the need to address the implementation of reconstruction projects of infrastructure in the liberated areas.”
He added in a statement: “The liberated areas have been increased and infrastructure collapsed in most regions, which requires saving a lot of money for rebuilding, and rehabilitation them and those amounts can be provided from the International Monetary Fund or from the fund of reconstruction of areas affected by terrorism.”
He added that the committee is “continuing in its coordination with the Ministry of Municipalities in order to facilitate its work and guiding its mechanisms in all provinces to those areas to open the streets and remove and lift the rubble and waste, ” explaining that the infrastructure in these areas need to provide huge sums, but the difficult financial situation that Iraq is going through prevents to achieve it”.
Shatha Khalil
Economic Unity
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies