Dr.Salim M.Al Zanoon
The crisis that broke out on 5 June between the three Gulf states, the Saudi Arabia, UAE and Bahrain, in addition to Egypt with Qatar imposed on the organization of Muslim Brotherhood to study options and alternatives that are a substitute for Doha, in the event that regional and international pressure to push for a decision to leave the territory.
According to this perspective, it is possible that the organization puts a “preemptive plan” to deal with a possible scenario based on a decision to be taken by Doha demanding from its leaders and members to leave the country, in order to prevent the occurrence of a state of chaos and confusion in the ranks of the organization when making such a decision, and in this type of plans , the work is made according to the system of phases and priorities that the first phase of the highest priority includes the departure of the known leaders, and in the second phase includes the evacuation of the persons listed in the lists of terrorism declared by the three countries and Egypt.
First, the determinants of potential incubators.
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It contributes to the identification of potential incubators for the organization of the Muslim Brotherhood, three main determinants:
I; the range of readiness of potential incubators (countries) to receive the leaders and cadres of the organization in light of describing them and their institutions by terrorism.
II; the space of political, economic, social and media movement of the organization in the new incubators, and without any security prosecution.
III; the extent of the strength of the relationship between the new incubators (countries), with the countries that are classifying the organization as a terrorist, specifically the three Gulf countries and Egypt.
Second, the potential incubators.
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In accordance with previous conditions, it is available in front of the Muslim Brotherhood, two types of potential incubators:
1. Individual incubators.
The international organization of the Muslim Brotherhood was able to create a huge network of research, thought , information centers, institutions of civil society, charities and advocacy associations licensed legally in all parts of the world, and used as a cover for political, economic, social , media and organizational action , concentrated in all European countries, namely Britain, France, as well as in the United States, Pakistan, Malaysia, South Africa, these countries can receive the cadres of the organization in their personal capacity (individuals) and not (organization), and do not allow to be a base for the organization to run its various activities, for two reasons , the first to maintain its ties with the three Gulf states and Egypt, and the second to secure its internal front .
2. Organizational incubators.
Muslim Brotherhood has close ties with some countries, as well as with the Islamist parties adherent to the Muslim Brotherhood that play an influential role on its governments, and in this respect, Turkey, Tunisia, Iran are shown as a possible incubators to host the Muslim Brotherhood as an organizational capacity, providing the right environment for them to work freely in all fields.
• Turkey.
Since the rise of the Justice and Development party, a branch of the Muslim Brotherhood , to power in Turkey in 2002, and the relationship between the two parties in a state of development and growth, and the relationship was strengthened after the outbreak of the revolutions of the Arab Spring in 2010, as Ankara supported all branches of the organizations of Muslim Brotherhood in different countries within the framework of the new Ottoman theory based on the restoration of the influence in areas that were subject to the Ottoman Empire, and after dropping the rule of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt , it has become a major incubator for Muslim brotherhood who are fleeing from Cairo, and a major center for the management of the organization’s activities at all levels, and this provides an explanation for the policy of the organization in support of Turkey on the political and religious levels and on the basis of the convergence of common interests between them; the desire of the organization in the presence of the safe incubator , and Turkey’s desire to implement its policy in the region, Turkey is the more likely incubator to host members of the organization in the event of their departure from Qatar.
• Tunisia.
There is a relative similarity between the Brotherhood’s experience in both Egypt and Tunisia, in terms of access to power as a result of the revolutions of the Arab Spring, with the difference in how the experience goes and its success, as Egypt’s Muslim Brotherhood forms a failed model in the state administration and its institutions up to the fall, in contrast, the Muslim Brotherhood of Tunisia formed a relatively successful model in the management of balances of governance, and enjoy the flexibility, and the degree of adaptation to the local environment that prevented to fall .
But ,brothers of Tunisia are still representatives in the movement of the Ennahda and enjoy with an important position in the Tunisian political life, in addition to the announcement of the Ennahda movement about its support for Qatar since the beginning of the crisis, and that “the Tunisia al-Irada Party ” declared standing by Qatar as it has contributed to the arrival of “Munsif al-Razzuqi ” to power, and according to this perspective, Tunisia is considered a potential incubator to host Brotherhood members in the event of their departure from Qatar.
• Iran.
There are close ties between the Muslim Brotherhood and Iran since the fifties of the last century, when the “Mojtaba Nawab Safavi” visited Cairo and meet with leaders of the Muslim Brotherhood, and in 1947 al-Banna met with the Shia Imami Twelver through Muhammad Taqi, and the concept of al-Banna, and the Muslim Brotherhood for the relationship with the Shiites is based on the possibility of consensus and convergence, and that there is a room always for cooperation in which they agreed upon, and “Ali Akbar Velayati,” the former Iranian Foreign Minister and Senior Advisor to the Murshid of the Iranian regime Ali Khamenei considered , that the Muslim Brotherhood is the closest to Tehran among all Islamic groups , and Iran supported the revolutions of the Arab Spring and the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood to power, and “Mohammed Morci” visited Tehran to attend the countries of the Non-Aligned Movement after the break lasted for decades, which has been interpreted as a political and economic normalization between the two countries, and this explains the lack of criticism of the organization of the policies of Iran’s intervention in the affairs of the region, on the basis that both need the other, Iran may be considered as a new incubator for the organization noting that the organization in dire need of a state to embrace them and does not consider them as a terrorist organization and Iran in need of the organization to refute the sectarian accusations and to improve its picture.
In all cases, the potential incubators lack of the privileges received by the Muslim Brotherhood during its stay in Qatar, in terms of generous financial support, and the ability to move freely at all levels, and a safe environment, it is possible that the organization moves to a new incubator, but it will lose some privileges available in Doha.
Arab Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies