The features of international and regional policy began to take its clear and accurate forms in its field dealings with the events in Iraq, especially after Abadi’s visit to Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Jordan, Turkey and Iran, and the accompanying meetings and exchange of views and put forward a new vision of Baghdad how to deal with alternatives occurred in the region. And to find solutions and effective formulas to combine the efforts of all to transform the circle of conflict from military conflicts and political differences to strategic alliances and exchange tools of the development and progress to serve the vision of the future and in the interest of all.
The successive events in Iraq came to indicate the truth of what we went to noting that the confrontation with ISIS elements and its terrorist bases starts to fade and the clashes in Al-Qaim and Rawah in Anbar province witnesses the last turning point in the presence of the organization, the destruction and the end of its last emirate in Iraq, which prompted it to declare its defeat, break and roll it in order to achieve political and field superiority for Baghdad , and then the events of the twenty-fifth of September 2017 came , represented by the referendum in the Kurdistan region and the subsequent events and facts led to military confrontations between the allies of the yesterday that its end was the announcement of the start of dialogue and negotiation under US auspices and the international supervision to put the first touches of a military agreement to represent the start of a political and field vision of a new Iraq, and then these two cases were accompanied with the American trend and the identification of the tracks of its objectives in Iraq and the Arab region in the face of Iranian expansion and its military tools of militias and parties.
Al-Abadi’s visits came within these events and trends and to constitute a milestone in the political dealings and determine the role of Iraq in the interim and future and the tracks of Iraqi-Arab relations and its objectives and the meeting stations of it giving attention to the relations of Baghdad with both Ankara and Tehran specially after the political agreement created by the referendum of Kurdistan among these countries .
Within these data, objectives and facts, we can define the future paths of confrontation for Iraq and how to deal with them. Does the Iraqi government have the potential and political decision in the possible confrontation to support the independent Iraqi political decision away from regional and international conflicts?
1. The new US policy in the region made it clear that its priorities are to counter Iranian influence, thwart its plans and projects, and provide support and assistance to all Arab countries, which contribute to reducing these trends that affect them and affect their national security.
2. Go to Iraq and his government to find ways and means to confront Iranian projects in Iraq, as confirmed by the speech of the US State Department Spokesman (Leeds Naort) on the Iranian role and objectives and the United States endeavor to prevent the construction of a land bridge between Tehran and Beirut through Iraq and through Shiite Crescent.
3. The United States seeks to protect the political system in Iraq as its sponsor, which is one of the results of the US-British invasion of Iraq on April 9, 2003, supporting and assisting its elements and providing the necessary requirements to ensure the success of the next elections in May 2018. Therefore, it is working hard to highlight the political and field role played by Government of Abbadi in order to support him in the next phase and renew his second term.
4. The US administration works in coordination with the government of Abadi in correcting the American course in Iraq by finding effective formulas and goals that will continue the distinguished relationship with Abadi, but it is required to neutralize the field action of the armed militias associated with Iran and encircle Iranian influence and its domination on the political and security decision in Iraq, that it would not an easy task and it is difficult for Abadi to win the confidence of the Americans and their support in the upcoming elections.
5. The United States is aware of the reality of Iran’s goals towards Iraq. It follows closely the details of the intentions of some militia leaders and the Popular crowd Groups in their quest for effective political participation in the upcoming elections on April 12, 2018, and their objectives in controlling the political decision in Iraq. From here , the assurance of Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei for mistrust of the Americans and the reassurance of their intentions and reduce their impact in Iraq has come, it is an influential factor that forms a heavy burden for Abadi in the balance of the relationship between Tehran and Washington.
6. The political relationship with the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, which resulted in the first meeting of the Political Coordination Council between Riyadh and Baghdad and the signing of several agreements in the presence of the US Secretary of State, who sent several letters to all parties, including determining the prospects of the new Arab action with Iraq and to prepare this Council as a model to be followed by others in their future relations with Iraq , and Washington stressed the need to take seriously the American concern about the activities and the role of popular crowd and militias belonging to Iran in Iraq, where the United States of America feels that Iran and its organs involved in these activities and all Its allies in the region, including Iraq, to work hard to stop these activities and reduce them.
7. The nature of events and its acceleration in the Middle East and the Arab region and the political, military and field changes that Iraq is undergoing indicate to the fact that the region is facing new crises based on the US-Iran conflict and that Iraq will be its fuel.
Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies