Dr… Salim Mohammed Al-Zanoun
Translated by : mudhaffar al-kusairi
The Turkish opposition has won the most important victory since the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) came to power in 2002. The victory of imamoglu as mayor of Istanbul against the ruling party’s candidate by 9 percent and the difference from 18,000 vote in the March election to 800,000 vote in the runoff, it indicates the decline in confidence in the political system.
In the foreseeable future, the outcome of the Istanbul race is not a threat to the regime, given its absolute control over public affairs and governance, but it poses a serious threat to its future. It is a preliminary indicator of the balance of power on the street and the possibility of winning the next presidential elections, to become a realistic embodiment of changing the political course of Turkey.
As a result, the stage of the conflict over Istanbul is over, but the problem lies in the challenges that will face the opposition in the post-win phase, and the ability to continue and succeed. The ruling party will act on the following:
1. Make a great effort to thwart the Imaoglu, especially as justice and development party still occupies 25 of Istanbul’s 39 mayors of municipality and holds the majority in the municipal assembly.
2. Attempting to delay or block funding, obstruct projects or enact national laws restricting the freedom of movement of Imamoglu.
3. Attempt to create legal problems for Imamoglu, may be sued on charges of insulting the governor of the province, “Ordo” during the election campaign.
4. Trying to delegitimize the contacts and partners of Oglu, finding mistakes in his personal life, and even portraying him as a traitor.
The biggest challenge facing the post-victory opposition is the ability to continue and succeed, and to widen the circle of influence to form a critical mass that enables it to form a real challenge to the political regime in elections four years later.
This is centered on the ability of Imamoglu to build and consolidate his position and succeed in improving the economy of Istanbul, so that he can present himself in the presidential elections after four years as a savior of the nation and the state.
As well as his ability to continue to expand access by strengthening alliances with the right-wing coalition, Kurds and other parties such as Al Sa’ada Party, the Democratic Left, and Communists, and strengthening the trust of the discontent within the AKP.
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies