Ten years have passed since Hamas seized power in the Gaza Strip, and the movement has become weak today more than ever, does that mean the high probability of a war? In this context, there is a range of factors pushing the situation in the Gaza Strip towards deterioration and fight a new battle with Israel in the near term, the most important:
• Power outages, and provide electricity for four hours a day.
• 90% of the water is undrinkable, and leads to endless of diseases.
• Hugh unemployment rate among the educated, and the unemployment rate among young people reached 70%.
• Actions taken by the Palestinian Authority, the deduction of 30% of the employees’ salaries, and to refrain from the payment of the electricity bill.
• High voice of frustration in the Gaza Strip through social networking.
• Cutting ties of some Gulf countries in addition to Egypt with Qatar, and the expulsion of members of the movement from it, put the movement in trouble funding and the inability to continue to run its own affairs.
• Classification of movement by the new US administration as a terrorist organization.
All of these factors push Hamas towards the realization that the situation in recent months, is working not in its favor, and its sense of concern seemed clear by searching for solutions in Cairo, where last week witnessed a round of meetings between the leadership of Hamas and Egyptian officials and Palestinian leaderships , perhaps driven by these factors towards the eruption of the situation with Israel, especially with a state of harmony between the political and military wings after the assumption of “Yahya al-Sinwar” , a dominant in the Qassam Brigades, the leadership of the Gaza Strip.
Despite all the statements made by the movement, and Israeli security estimates indicate that Hamas does not want to escalate at the moment, but any move may turn things out of control and lead to war, and these are the steps.
• The implementation of Hamas of a major operation in the West Bank.
• Launch rockets in the incorrect timing, for fear of economic decline or deterioration of control completely.
• The exercise of an external or internal pressure to get rid of Hamas.
• Implementation of attacks by the organizations associated with the organization of “Daesh” to restore the struggle against Israel to the fore.
The result; the dynamics of escalation are available towards the war in the Gaza Strip, but the chances of popular exit on the Hamas movement is weak, on the grounds that the charges are still directed against Israel, Egypt, Abu Mazen, and the US administration considering them responsible for the deterioration of the situation in Gaza.
Rawbet Center for Research and Strategic Studies