Shatha Khalil *
Trump ‘s visit to Saudi Arabia enhances the level of economic relations between the United States and the Gulf states, and the visit represents , according to Al Quds Al Arabi newspaper, the beginning of a new era in the US relationship with the region in general, and the end of the previous era embodied by former US President Barack Obama’s strategy which has caused an imbalance in the balance of power as a result of the policy of withdrawal and lack of engagement and turns back and blind eye.
Of the rapid implications of Trump’s visit to Saudi Arabia, and his participation in the three summits including Saudi-US summit and Arab –Islamic-American summit is that the Saudi Arabia to send its oil minister Khaled al – Faleh tomorrow afternoon to Baghdad , as part of a sudden , unplanned and very important visit to conduct consultations with Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al – Abadi,and the Minister of oil Jabbar Luaibi for agreement before the holding of OPEC conference in the twenty – fifth and twenty – sixth of this month, as part of a common and important cooperation on the economic level , including the production and export of oil according to what was agreed upon with the Organization of petroleum exporting Countries(OPEC) , to reduce the supply, and maintain oil prices, and contains important messages unrevealed that will be clarified later .
The fact that Saudi Arabia is the first leg of Trump’s official foreign trip ,it is a significant matter noting since more than three decades, and particularly since the era of Jimmy Carter, US presidents consistently visit Canada or Mexico first, but Trump to come out of that custom indicates that Washington has turned again the compass of its concerns towards the region after a period of decline and apathy during Obama ‘s term.
This is consistent with what was said by the adviser of Trump for the National Security McMaster that the speech of Trump before the summit aims to unite the Muslim world against common enemies to assure the world that the United States is still supportive to its Muslim allies.
The visit focus and the participation of the visit of US President Donald Trump in the three summits on the economic side of the Gulf, and to improve , living , educational, cultural and civilization level of it , and the achievement of many of the political, strategic and economic gains that benefit the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia.
The three summits are keen to find “one common vision” between the three summits and between the 55 Arab and Muslim leaders who met in Riyadh under the slogan of “Together We Prevail”, where the desire may exist, but the lesson is in the execution or implementation capacity, and perhaps most importantly, hopes to be on the level of ambition, if the region’s leaders and their people wanted to leave the time of disappointments and heading towards success.
Saudi Foreign Minister Adel al – Jubeir, said his country is a strong economic partner of the United States and the largest oil exporter and most investors in the world, described the visit of Trump to Saudi Arabia as a “historic by all standards”, and it comes to enhance the relations between the two sides in economic, commercial and investment sides , and cooperation in various fields, contracting , natural gas , technology transfer, education and health.
Chief Executive Officer of Saudi Aramco Amin Nasser expected that the oil sector to see a significant recovery, especially after signing with the US side Agreements worth $ 50 billion (180 billion riyals), which will act upon immediately to be finished within a few years.
The initial expected offer in the next year to about 5% of the shares of Aramco in Saudi market is one of the axes of the visit, where the global stock markets are competing to win the opportunity of largest inclusion in history , and preliminary estimates indicate that the value of the company up to two trillion dollars.
The visit of Trump outweigh the New York Stock Exchange in the inclusion of the initial IPO (initial public offering) of the shares of Saudi Aramco, it is expected that the delegation accompanying the US president to show the importance of US market and financial services to outweigh the New York Stock Exchange in the race with the stock exchanges of London, Hong Kong, Tokyo and Singapore.
And the inclusion of Aramco in Riyadh and New York stock exchanges, would deepen the economic relations between the two countries, especially the New York Stock Exchange is the largest market for shares in the world and embrace the shares of the world ‘s largest energy companies such as Exxon Mobil and Chevron.
And Riyadh chose two American financial institutions out of three institutions to manage the giant issuing houses, namely: Morgan Stanley and JP Mugen in addition of British Bank HSBC, and Trump may seek to make New York’s win of the issuing as one of his economic success.
Nasser explained that these agreements will provide significant employment opportunities in the Kingdom and America as well; through the facilities to be opened in the Kingdom, where foreign companies will open more factories in the Kingdom, which helps to train more Saudi manpower.
It is also expected that the General Investment Authority will grant 19 American companies licenses to invest in the Kingdom of full ownership in sectors with value added to the national economy, as it includes investment sectors, manufacturing , transportation, contracting , medicine, logistics services and electronic banking services and virtual reality and the areas of consulting , however that the US companies should be committed to the rates of employment of Saudis, according to government standards of the Kingdom.
And those licenses for the major American companies comes , on the basis of the strategic objectives of the Kingdom ‘s Vision 2030, which focuses on attraction of quality investments, and attract a major leading global companies in various vital sectors .
The Saudi minister of Energy and Industry Khaled Faleh adds that the special relationship on trade and investment between Saudi Arabia and the United States is “part of close friendship between the two countries,” and there are “many great opportunities to move the relationship between the two countries to higher levels.”
and to provide many investment opportunities and initiatives that contribute to the strengthening of partnerships between Saudi Arabia and the United States, the time at which Saudi Arabia tries to reduce its dependence on oil and diversify its economy.
The value of agreements between the two sides worth $ 460 billion, of which $ 110 billion is the value of previous military deals ,on which Washington will hand over weapons immediately to the Saudi side, as well as defense cooperation deals worth $ 350 billion over ten years.
And it coincides with this visit also, the visit of the President of the Japanese group ” Soft Bank” Masayoshi Son, who is the richest man in Japan that it is expected to announce the completion of the first funding round of what will be the largest direct investment fund in the world, supported by the Saudi sovereign wealth fund and Apple company.
The size of this fund expected to start using it during the visit of $ 100 billion which has been called “Vision”, and will focus on the investment by the technology and the digital economy.
And the Saudi Ministry of Trade and Investment stated in a report that the volume of trade exchange between Saudi Arabia and the United States in 2016 amounted by 142 billion riyals, as the United States occupies the second rank among the top ten countries imported from Saudi Arabia, and the first rank among the top ten countries exporting to the Kingdom in 2016.
And over the past ten years, the size of trade exchange between the two countries exceeded 2.533 trillion, according to the Saudi Press Agency.
A strategy to counter terrorism “ISIS”
It is expected to change the strategy to face terrorism during the coming period, and this is pointed out by Saudi Foreign Minister al – Jubeir, that the visit will open a new page in the methods of countering extremism, in addition to what was said by US Secretary of Defense James Mattis that the Trump administration ordered to launch a campaign for the liquidation of the jihadists in Iraq and Syria, and to change the military strategy against the terrorist organization ISIS in a campaign focusing on “wipe them out .”
Mattis at a press conference at the US headquarters of the Defense Ministry pointed out that this eradication campaign means that the coalition forces to encircle the sites of the terrorist organization ISIS before attacking its positions; so as the Jihadists will not be able to escape or assemble elsewhere.
It also comes at a time when the Director of the UN Counter -Terrorism Implementation Task Force (CTITF) and (UNCCT), Jahangir Khan stressed the importance of the visit of Trump to the Kingdom, saying: ” the Secretary – General of the United Nations, and all of us here in the organization, we believe in the importance of strengthening international cooperation, particularly with regard to the central matters, such as the fight against terrorism.
The credit in these three summits held in Riyadh is due to the leaders of nations gathered to deal with the most prominent risks facing our society today which is a fight against terrorism. ”
It is worth mentioning that while the Trump is visiting Kingdom, Riyadh forum to combat extremism and the fight against terrorism began its works on Sunday, May 21 2017 under the auspices of the Islamic military alliance to fight terrorism, under the slogan of ” the nature of extremism and the future of terrorism”, a forum, which witnessed the participation of a number of prominent regional and global high – level personalities.
A forum, attended by more than 100 guests from experts, academics and media professionals from outside the Kingdom, in addition to the large participation and presence from within the Kingdom.
An official at the White House, said the deal was in conjunction with a visit of Trump, including aircraft, warships and a Précision guided bombs and various weapons, in addition to sophisticated radar systems, has full capability to shoot down ballistic missiles, and adding: “We will see a very big commitment, as it aims in many ways to capacity building for threats they face “.
The informed American sources said that the senior advisers of Donald Trump and his son in law Jared Kushner played an important role in reducing the cost of major weapon deal in favor of the Kingdom, the sources pointed out that the scenes of the agreement saw a great welcome by Kushner to a Saudi high – level delegation at the reception room at the White House, discussing the types of weapons listed on the deal, but the total cost has been an obstacle in the way to announce it , but ultimately the efforts succeeded in reducing the cost.
Although Trump ‘s statements during his campaign for the presidency, and its negative impact that may occur to those strategic partnership rooted in decades, but the visit confirms that US relations with the Arab and Muslim world are still strong.
“Iran ‘s interference” in the affairs of the region ”
to reminisce about how Obama policy has served Iran, it is enough that an Iranian official standing before two or three years of time declaring that Tehran was occupied four Arab capitals to show the extent of the defect which hit the region .
The talk here is not about Iran only , but also for this strategic alliance led by Moscow where Tehran and its military arms and the Syrian system are part of it, and the policy of turning back led to the arrival of US – Gulf relations , particularly the US – Saudi Arabia to their lowest levels.
And among the important reasons to enhance economic cooperation with Trump, the first is his position to deter Iranian influence and interference in the affairs of countries in the region , and it is a top priority of the Kingdom, also Observers believe that the main axes of Trump summits in Riyadh, the face of “interventions of Iran” in the affairs of the region; where Riyadh finds in the management of Trump as an interaction with its concern about Iranian interference, especially with the intensification of this administration officials accusations against Tehran of destabilizing the region and waving to take action against the Islamic Republic.
The head of the Saudi American Public Relation Affairs Committee (SAPRAC) Salman Al-Ansari stressed that the Arab – American Islamic summit is carrying a clear message to the Iranian hard – line system; it provides that there would be a full understanding and a comprehensive agreement between the United States and the Arab and Islamic worlds.
The researcher in the field of defense at King ‘s College in London , Andreas Craig believes , King Salman seeks the assistance of the United States to form the Islamist alliance led by Saudi Arabia against the extremist ideology that Iran is trying to promote it,
so a military cooperation will be an essential axes also , where the United States dominate the supply of arms contracts to Saudi Arabia for decades, and Saudi Arabia for its part is seeking to get more sophisticated weapons, which serves the promises of Trump in reviving manufacturing in the United States.
It is noteworthy that former President Barack Obama’s administration exported weapons worth $ 115 billion over eight years, but it saw the cancellation of some contracts, which is unlikely during the reign of Trump.
It seems that Saudi Arabia which wants to restructure its economy away from oil, it will find a key ally in President Donald Trump to manage the success of the economic transforming program.
Reflections of the visit of Trump to Saudi Arabia and its effects on the Arab countries
According to observers, the strong Arab- American partnership is to restore balance to the region, after the imbalance created by the US withdrawal, and the preparation of military power that is capable to fill the place of the organization of “ISIS” , which the elimination of it is a matter of time geographically no more .
Washington is aware that the gate of pressure on Iran politically is to eliminate Iran ‘s expansionist project in the region, Iran connects through its militias the vital artery between Syria and Iraq, noting that the battle of “Tanf crossing” is an the area to enter Sinjar and Tal Afar and down to the Syrian border, which ensures the land communication bridge between Tehran and Damascus, as it is essential to Washington after its new president decided to re – engage to restore the lost balance, although many questions are raised in this context , the location of Turkey in this required balance on the impact of the American-Turkish dispute about the Kurdish file .
And the stability of the region , whether it was Arab or American , we can not expect to achieve an acceptable rate of success if it is not dealt with the central issue of the Arabs ,it is the Palestinian cause, noting the aspiration of Trump is that the Arabs to facilitate the way through the formulation a kind of Israeli- Gulf “convergence to pave the way later in front of the Israeli – Palestinian settlement .
The issue in which there is may be a lot of desire that is far from the logic of reality, and the position of Trump during his visit to Israel, will determine the compass of the path to be pursued for this file, especially in what was related to the future of Jerusalem.
At the end of the visit, the US President expressed his happiness for his presence in Riyadh and the King Salman said that the visit of Trump will achieve stability for the region and the world, and added that the visit will strengthen strategic cooperation between the two countries.
And they discussed bilateral relations and thorny files in the region, chiefly terrorism and Iran, and the Trump management focused on its relations with Saudi Arabia, due to its central role in the region, indicating that the visit is important and fruitful certainly, in particular it is the first time that an American president chooses an Islamic state in the first foreign visit.
Economic Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies