Measuring public opinion, and stand on its indicators is a key pillar in guiding decision – makers in accurate scientific way in all economic, social and political fields.
The tribal measurement for the expected responses to any decision of a direct impact on the members of society has become an urgent need to avoid the mistakes of its application on the public and find out the extent of rejection of the consequences of the decision or not to accept it at any stage of its implementation.
Some experts believe that the secret of the success of Western regimes lies – alongside the application of the values of democracy, freedom and institution – in activating the role of institutions that reflect all of these values, such as poll centers, measuring opinion and multi-media, where the poll centers and measuring public opinion in the developed countries especially in the West are very important arms for decision – makers in various fields.
It is well known that in all the constitutions of the world , the people are the source of authority , and no ruler can rule a people without knowing what the people wants and what are his goals or what are his orientations . From here, the importance of the poll of public opinion comes.
The word public opinion consists of the word opinion ‘rai’ , it means verbal or written expression of attitudes towards the phenomenon, or a problem arises around it the controversy and debate; as the uncontested issues do not require an opinion about them , and the word public, and that reflect the existence of a particular group that are combined by common interests and fixed relations , and the so- called «public opinion» as distinct from the private opinion or individual, public opinion is not the collection of the individual opinions of a group of individuals, it is the result of the debate, and conscious interaction of those views, which may differ or match or approaching to some of them; to get in the end to the opinion represent the majority , a public opinion that has become a positive indicator of the extent of awareness of the concerned body to take the decision.
Some researchers in political science say that the public opinion is an invisible power that can be called the fifth power , similar to the fourth power in the media, and this is in the light of the continuous increase in the impact of public opinion on many policies and decisions and the growth of polling stations and the development of methods used to clarify opinions and direct them according to advanced scientific approach to reach the development of public opinion about specific subject
Public opinion polls in Iraq
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although the polls are very important in taking decisions , but it ‘s in Iraq a few “stingy” and if a survey of public opinion on a particular issue was conducted , the decision – makers would ignore it , because the culture of individual vote is prevalent in Iraq, in addition to the ignorance of the importance of the survey and the absence of culture, and the difficulty of working in this field, especially when the results of the survey will not be in the favor of a particular entity .
• The extent of Optimism of Iraqis over the general situation after the liberation from Daesh.
Despite the pessimism of the Iraqis in general about the future of Iraq, but the Sunnis are more optimistic and more confident to the Prime Minister, and the security forces, with the presence of concerns must be addressed and removed.
Figure 1
the table (1) shows that in 2015 there is no positive outlook to the orientation of the general situation because of the control of the organization Daesh over the Sunni provinces, and the deterioration of the general situation and the financial crisis experienced by the country, and do not differ much in 2016, but in 2017 tangible progress has begun since the start of the battles for liberation; people are becoming living in an atmosphere of hope and positive outlook.
• What are the demands of the Iraqis after the liberation from terrorism “Daesh”?
Figure 2
the table (2) shows the elimination of corruption occupied the highest percentage, in addition to the awareness of citizens that corruption is the foundation of the destruction of the country with all its joints, and that the elimination of unemployment by the job creation was among the priorities of the citizen to secure a decent living, and achieve the security and control over the ground is very important too, while the provision of services came at the end of demands.
Form 3
• A high percentage of the Iraqi people see that the liberation of the areas from the terrorism Daesh is a result of efforts of the security , the army, the police and the Peshmerga forces, while the popular crowd was accounted for a few , while the ratio of coalition forces was the lowest as it was not popular on the ground.
- How do citizens look at the crowd after liberation?
Figure 4
To compensate victims of the crowd involved in the fighting came in the first place , with the percentage of 56%, and the demand to incorporate them into the Iraqi army 36%, while the dissolution of the crowd , the percentage of demanders were 26%, while the claimants by remaining in a separate institution 17%.
- What are the incubators for the terrorism “Daesh”, a fertile ground for the growth of extremist ideology?
Figure 5
The survey shows that the corruption with the state, and the policy of the government, and abhorrent sectarianism, and the deterioration of the economic situation, and the intervention of outside parties to the internal politics of the country are factors helped to embrace terrorism and its growth.
- Proportion of expected participants in the next elections
Figure 6
the proportion of Kurds is the highest that prefer to participate, there is optimism, but the Shiites were less enthusiastic to participate, due to several reasons, including the general deteriorating situation in Baghdad and the provinces in general including security services … etc.
- Who supports the performance of Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi?
Figure 7
poll showed that the Sunnis were more satisfied with the performance of Prime Minister al – Abadi, the Shiites were less satisfied by his performance, while the satisfaction of Kurds is few.
- What if Abadi decided to run for a second term?
Figure 8
Sunni Arabs are more supporters to renew the mandate of a second term to Abadi due to the achievements made in his era of the liberation of their areas from the terrorism Daesh, then come in the order of Arab Shiites, and Kurds.
- The best ways to ensure of no return of terrorism “Daesh”.
Figure 9
The views of citizens showed that the most important measures to eliminate unemployment are to provide employment opportunities, and to follow a firm mechanism adopted by the state to eliminate corruption, not empty sounding slogans , and the tightening of security measures and ensure that things do not move backwards to prevent the emergence of dormant cells in the liberated areas, and focus on national reconciliation, and modify religious discourse and spreading peace, love and cooperation among all sects of the Iraqi fabric, and give wider authority to the Prime Minister, and working to establish a political party includes everyone without discrimination.
- Is there a fear of the return of terrorism “Daesh” to areas of Iraq?
Figure 10
The largest percentage is the fear of Kurdistan region from the return of, Daesh, then Baghdad came with a percentage 77%, then the western and southern region
- Who supports the appointment of a military governor of the province of Mosul?
Figure 11
The high percentage was in favor of the appointment of a military governor of the province until the stabilization of the situation, a small percentage in favor of a civilian governor elected by the provincial council, and civil governor appointed by the prime minister with close percentage, and the lowest rate is to keep the current governor unchanged.
• How to look at the performance of the Iraqi parliament?
Effective role in addressing problems , it has no role , take care of its problems , , slow work
Figure 12
The answer to dilatory work is high, then attention to its problems away from the interests of the people , and has no role in addressing important issues, and the lowest rate looked at it positively to exercise its role in the
Country.
- Do you see the need for separation of religion from the state?
Figure 13
the largest percentage sees the need for separation and sees that sectarian problems were reasons enough for the separation, but another category and percentage less rejected the separation and considers that it is important to integrate religion with politics.
Do you support the change of election law?
Figure 14
The votes are as in the table; the high proportion with the change, and 66% is a pessimistic look that even with changing the law , the results will not be positive , and there are those who see no need to change the law but by a few, compared to those who demanded change.
Shatha Khalil
A researcher at the Economic Unity
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies