Preface:
As long as the Middle East has been associated with the interests of the big powers because of its strategic importance thanks to its position, Turkey, which represents a Middle Eastern country separating Europe and the Middle East, is exploiting its position to serve its interests in the region. Turkey has played a decisive role in history both regionally and globally as it formed an intersection of various ancient human civilizations in the heart of the ancient world, so Istanbul was the capital of three of the greatest empires and the most powerful throughout the ages from Roman to Byzantine and to the Ottoman Empire, which weakened and collapsed and ended in it the Islamic Caliphate, and on its ruins, the modern Republic of Turkey was declared in 1923.
Since the end of the Cold War, which began with the collapse of the eastern camp, Turkey is trying to find an effective regional role in the region, especially after the AKP came to power in 2002.
Problematic:
The Turkish regional force is one of the competing regional powers in the Middle East region and to achieve its regional position, it has played an influential role in the current files. Hence, we can present the following problematic:
What is the nature of the Turkish strategy towards the Middle East in the era of Erdogan?
– Or To what extent can the Turkish strategy achieve a prominent regional status during the era of Erdogan?
First: Turkey’s potential to play a prominent regional role
1 / geostrategic importance of Turkey
The geostrategic location of Turkey has played an important role in the development of its foreign policy over several centuries and the changing international situation. Its position enjoys some advantages that have played and continue to play a major role in the international relations such as the Bosporus and Dardanelles, which link the Black Sea waters with the Mediterranean Sea through the Marmara Sea, it is located in the Anatolia region of the Asian continent and part of its territory is located in the European Balkan region, which gave it great strategic importance. It represents the junction of land, sea and air transport in the region and controls the means of transferring energy both to the Middle East or to Europe and the United States , where it occupies thirty – seventh largest in terms of area in the world, with an estimated 783.562 square kilometers [1] .
Turkeyn shares in its political borders with a group of countries and regions, as it bordered from the north by the Black Sea and Georgia, to the east by Armenia, Azerbaijan and Iran, and from the south by Iraq, Syria and the Mediterranean, on the west, it is bordered by the Aegean Sea, Greece and Bulgaria. Part of it is located in Asia, Anatolia, and a small part of it is located in the continent of Europe and is called the Balkans [2] .
The water area is estimated at 9.82 square kilometers and is characterized by its varied climate for the difference of latitude and longitude and Turkey is a peninsula because it is bordered by water from all sides . The territory of Anatolia is 97% of the country, while the European part constitutes 3% of the country’s territory. Turkey is situated on several water bodies, namely the Black Sea , the Mediterranean Sea, the Sea of Marmara and the Aegean Sea. Turkey has a long continental border of about 9,848 km, bordering on eight countries. It has a border with Georgia with 252 km, with Armenia; it has a border of 268 km. Its border with Iran is about 449 km. Its border with Azerbaijan is 9 km. With Iraq is 352 km, and its borders with Bulgaria extends to 240 km and with Greece, 352 km, [3]
The Turkish border with Syria is the largest of its land borders as it is about 822 km. This site has made Turkish strategic attention to three regional constituencies: the European region, the Central Asia region and the Middle East region. [4]
2 / The Turkish economic factor
Turkey is dependent on the application of a mixed economy, which combines government institutions with private institutions. This has contributed to the economic development and has led to the transformation of the economy from an agricultural economy to an industry-based economy and services that are the most developed sectors. Half of the labor force has worked in the service sector in the twenty-first century; while in the industrial and agricultural sectors one-quarter of the labor force has been working. Turkey’s political development contributed to increased cooperation with foreign countries, but in 1970 the Turkish economy suffered from high unemployment and inflation associated with a deficit in foreign trade. Several changes in the Turkish economic policy have emerged in 1980, as it increased to encourage foreign investment and the establishment of projects, but the negative impact of inflation in 1990 has continued, and the share of individuals of GDP remained less than most of the countries of Europe and the Middle East. [5]
The economic monitoring program was introduced in 1997 for 18 months with the participation of the International Monetary Fund (IMF). This succeeded in reducing inflation. However, with the financial crisis in 2000, Turkey was forced to participate in the reform program of the International Monetary Fund, thus the Turkish economy itnessed stong and continuous growth but it was affected by a recession in 2009 when it was affected by the global economic crisis. Turkey has a range of diverse natural resources, mainly coal and oil, with oil production on a small scale in the oil fields located in the southeastern region of Turkey, and its water resources are also used to produce electricity. The most important mineral ores [6]
Turkey sought full membership in the European Union and major obstacles facing its integration within the EU system pushed it for the retention of the European paper and turning
to the regional region of the Middle East, especially after the arrival of the Justice and Development Party to power led by Erdoğan in 2002 and the great economic growth of Turkey that drove Turkey out of a low economic situation due to the inflation it suffered for years, and Turkey was able to strengthen its position in the developing countries after the rise of economic performance, the Government of Justice and Development took long term measures to address rising inflation, and the Justice and Development Party (PJD) succeeded in reducing the external debt to GDP ratio to ensure that the country was able to repay its external debt and the government improved social services through allocations of a high annual budget for the Ministry of the Family and social policies, which contributed to the improvement of the social status of the Turkish citizen and the rise in per capita income, making Turkey a high income country according to World Bank standards.
Turkey is one of the world’s leading exporters of agricultural products and among the largest manufacturers of automobiles, textiles, ships and electronics, making it an active and developed market that makes Turkey one of the largest new industrial countries. [7]
The Justice and Development Party (AKP) succeeded in keeping the military establishment away from power and political work and its return to the barracks through Erdogan’s government to issue new legal packages to restructure the institutions including the military institution and its relation to the civilians aimed to reduce the constitutional status of the Army, and in 2004 , a constitutional amendment abolished the membership of the military general in the Higher Education Council and abolished the military General ‘s membership in radio and television so that the educational and broadcasting institution would become two civilian institutions that did not have a military engagement. The Turkish government also issued a decision to prevent the military institution to make any statement in relation to the political issue. The government also approved the abolishment of military trials within amendments that allowed the prosecution against generals and civilians [8] .
Second: Turkish Foreign Policy towards the Middle East:
Turkey’s foreign policy underwent a major transformation after the end of the Cold War, with Turkey moving from being the eastern guardian of the western borders of Europe and the strong bulwark against the Communist tide in the Middle East to the status of the strategic partner of the West by insisting on pursuing its goal since the establishing the Turkish Republic 1923, which is the acquisition of membership in the European Union, the consolidation of relations with the United States of America and Israel and away from the Arab and Islamic countries, through a foreign policy of one-dimensional at that time . But the changes that the world have seen after the events of 11 Mbar / September 2001, the major transformations experienced by Turkey on the internal level, making it to rethink for its foreign policy and determine its current international system , and make it to reconsider its goals and strategies, and adopt a completely different foreign policy from the previous foreign policy. [9]
In order to activate its regional role in the Middle East, the Turkish policy found that it must adapt its foreign policy to the international and regional situation in light of the international and regional changes that have been reflected in the Middle East, especially the developments that took place after the events of September 11, 2001, Arab-Israeli conflict and the Arab spring revolutions in addition to the emergence of Iran as a regional power with a sense of influence in the Arab Gulf, and therefore these variables imposed on Turkey to reshape its policy towards these regional changes. [10]
The AKP’s accession to power has had a major impact on Turkey’s foreign policy. Turkey has adopted a changing foreign policy in accordance with international circumstances. Turkey has developed its diplomatic style to form a central country in managing crises that seek to resolve it peacefully. Turkey has moved from rigid politics and neutrality to the movement and interact constantly with international variables and to activate their interaction with all countries that are important to it [11] .
Third: The role of the Turkish in resolving the Arab Spring crises
The emergence of the Turkish role and attention in most of the central issues in the Middle East, particularly after the arrival of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power in 2002, and the launching of a new Turkish policy towards the region, have been confirmed by Turkey’s presence and status as a central force for stability and an effective actor in tackling various issues and conflicts in the region. However, this policy soon faced great challenges in the wake of the outbreak of the first sparks of the Arab Spring, which soon spread in the Arab region, which upset the existing balances, and the chapters of the Arab Spring are continuing and accelerating threatened regional policies and balances,and most importantly is the Turkish role . ]
Turkey’s openness to the Arab states and the building of strong relations with them represented one of the pillars of activating the role of the Turkish in the Middle East, but the great popular movement witnessed by many Arab countries and called the Arab Spring confused the Turkish government and make its position on the Arab move is different, Turkey dealt with each party in terms of privacy, thus , concerning the state of Tunisia and Egypt, which resulted in the early fall of both regimes, Turkey supported the Tunisian and Egyptian people, supported the liberation of the people heading towards democratic transition. After the fall of Muammar Gaddafi’s regime in Libya, the Turkish regime continued to support the Libyan people. Turkey saw that what was happening in the Arab world is a usual path and rulers should not stand in the face of this process of the Arab Spring revolutions led to the adoption of principles in its foreign policy that respect the will of the people and their desire for freedom and keep the peaceful course of this popular movement, as well as the rejection of foreign military intervention in these countries and the provision of humanitarian aid to them as well as to preserve Turkey’s economic interests in these countries and to preserve the safety of the Turkish community in it , as Turkey has focused on building on international legitimacy and moving it within the framework of international laws and UN resolutions. [13]
However, the path taken by the Syrian crisis and its arrival in a civil war opened the door for international intervention in the form of Russian intervention in support of Bashar al-Assad and the intervention of the United States in addition to the Iranian intervention and the fact that Turkey is a state bordering Syria allows to play a key role in Syrian crisis in line with its interest in the region , the matter that contradicts with the orientations of its foreign policies towards the Arab spring countries including non-Turkish intervention in these countries , where Turkey intervened militarily in Syria, under the pretext of combating the organization of the Islamic state “ISIS”, through sending 10 tanks to Syria via the Syrian city of Grappsal, border with Turkey. [14]
The Arab Spring Revolutions Despite the fact that Turkey’s interests in the Middle East have been disrupted, Turkey has opened new alternatives. Political instability in the Middle East has had an impact on the Turkish economy. The Free Trade Agreement with Tunisia and Libya has been canceled and the Syrian crisis has frozen an agreement that established a common area between Turkey and Libya. Lebanon, Syria, Jordan and Turkey. These events contributed to the decline of Turkey’s total exports to Arab countries.[15th]
Determinants of the Turkish position of the Arab spring revolutions
Turkey’s position has been tentative and according to the nature of Turkey’s new orientation in establishing democracy and supporting peoples. The study divided the Turkish position towards Arab revolutions into four different stages:
First, the stage of one –sided cautious action.
Second: the stage of hesitant participation.
Third: one- sided Pre-emptive policy.
Fourth: the stage of return to be more cautious.
And based on the nature of the Turkish approach to the Arab Spring revolutions, it reveals that it was founded on two basic assumptions linked to each other. First, the developments in the Middle East indicate that there is no escape from change in order to adapt to this change and not to resist it.
And secondly, that Turkish adaptation to these events in an appropriate manner would maximize Turkey’s political, economic and security interests in the region.
The Turkish Position on the Syrian Crisis:
The relations between Syria and Turkey are one of the oldest and most tense ones, where Turkey and Syria have common borders about 822 km. These relations have undergone many problems, most notably the control of a city of Lowa since 1920. The latter was subordinate to Aleppo in Ottoman Syria, In 1938, after the withdrawal of France, Turkish forces entered and annexed it to Turkey and declared in 1939 that it was part of the Turkish Republic, which marked the first signs of tension in the Syrian-Turkish relations, which led to the continuation of tension between the two sides around which the tension reached Peaked at the end of 1998 after a crisis which led to the outbreak of a military conflict between the two countries, but the two countries reached a political settlement that requires Syria gave up its support for the PKK in return to postpone the subject of the Lowa for a later period, which was agreed by both parties, which were looking to activate economic and political cooperation between them. Despite the presence of many tensions in the Turkish-Syrian relations, but these relations witnessed stability and great cooperation between the two countries before the outbreak of the Syrian crisis in 2011. With the arrival of Bashar Assad as a successor to his father Hafez al-Assad Turkey has strengthened relations with Syria and the file of many differences was settled and this promoted ties between the two countries and this cooperation was developed to the extent that both countries have lifted visa related to the citizens of both countries . The openness of the Turkish-Syrian relations did not last long and returned to tension after the outbreak of the Syrian crisis because of the different orientations of both countries where Bashar al-Assad is heading towards the Iranian Shiite axis while Turkey leads the Sunni axis in the middle east and this was clear the Turkish position hostile to the regime of Bashar al-Assad , and with the outbreak of the Syrian crisis , the Turkish president went to Syria to reach a settlement with the Syrian regime, expressing his country’s dissatisfaction with the Syrian regime’s military intervention against his people specially after Syrian tanks enter Aleppo. [18]
With the continuation of the Syrian regime in military interventions, the Turkish regime declared its hostility to the regime of Bashar al-Assad by its intention to overthrow from power. This position was expressed by Turkey and its adherence to this position by its participation in international initiatives to resolve the Syrian crisis, including Geneva 1, through which Turkey demanded the unification of Syrian territory and the right of the Syrian people to self-determination and the illegitimacy of Bashar Assad’s regime and Turket has received Syrian refugees and supported the Syrian opposition, especially during the early years of the Syrian crisis. [19]
The decline of the Turkish role in the Syrian crisis
Turkey has a large border with Syria, which makes it a geographical and ethnic extension of Turkey which highlights Syria’s importance to Turkey noting that the Syrian-Turkish relations are historical relations in which they have witnessed tensions and disagreements in many of its stations between the two sides due to the existence of suspended files between them namely the Kurdish file which represented a common vision between Turkey and Syria ,as they fear the growing role of the Kurds and their formation of a unified state. This concerns national security in the first place, as well as the problem of water between Syria and Turkey and the use of water by Turkey to pressure Syria and work to pass a number of suspended files between the two countries , the matter makes Syria to support PKK( Kurdistan workers ‘Party)
and increase the tension in relations between the two countries .The Syrian-Turkish relations reached a breakthrough in early 2004 after Syrian President Bashar al-Asad visited Ankara and the two countries to sign economic agreements between them. This rapprochement was reactivated more than once where Ankara was playing the role of mediator in the Israeli-Syrian negotiations in 2008. The Turkish-Syrian rapprochement at this stage had many goals. Turkey, through its rapprochement with Syria, sought to reach Syrian-Turkish cooperation to besiege the Kurds and reduce Syrian support for them in addition that Turkey endeavored to contain the regional policy of Syria on the resistance and regional alliances including working to weaken the Syrian orientation towards Iran and work to establish a regional Turkish Syrian alliance in the region . [21]
The Syrian-Turkish rapprochement is aimed at reaching a settlement of the water issue with Turkey in addition to Syria’s attempt to make Iran and Turkey the two most important political allies for it in the region. This is what makes it the balance point for all the forces 22.
With the outbreak of the crisis in Syria, Turkey relied on political and diplomatic efforts to persuade Assad to reform and respond to popular demands, but the Syrian regime did not respond to Turkey’s demands led Turkey to warn Bashar al-Assad that the situation would worsen in Syria and increase its pressure on it as well as that Turkey coordinated its efforts to resolve the crisis with Qatar , KSA and Arab league [23] .
Turkey has also resorted to international allies, headed by the USA or NATO, to contribute to the settlement of the Syrian crisis, but all the Turkish efforts to resolve it during the first stages did not succeed and did not have a clear impact on the Syrian regime.
There are several reasons behind the weakness in the Turkish position and its ineffectiveness in the Syrian crisis as follows:
1 / Turkey’s determination to end problems of its foreign policy , noting that the theory of ending problems with neighboring countries is one of the most prominent theories adopted by Turkey after the arrival of the Justice and Development Party (AKP) to power and this theory belongs to Turkish Prime Minister Davutoglu , a policy of settling problems with the neighboring countries to exit Turkey from the framework of the state of multiple problems , especially with Iran and Iraq ,Syria , Egypt and Cyprus and its integration with its neighbors to create a stable environment with neighboring countries that would allow for the development of its economic and security interests. By adopting a theory of ending problems, Turkey has developed its relations with many neighboring countries, including the development of relations with Iran and reached to form strong economic ties with it despite the political differences in their respective orientations and the regional rivalry between them, but to practice this policy with Syria, especially after the crisis, represented a decline in the Turkish role, which made it closer to the stalemate.
2 / Turkish options to deal with the Syrian crisis were limited during the early stages of the crisis
A test of Turkey’s diplomatic capabilities, as a growing regional state, Turkey was not prepared for a direct confrontation with Iran, which, along with Russia, supported the survival of Bashar Assad in power. [24]
3 / Turkey’s commitment not to engage in any regional alliances that may be included in sectarian classifications that confuse its movements in the region or its involvement in international alliances to be appeared as a US tool in the Middle East and that Turkey would only use soft power .
4. Turkey’s reluctance to rush to use military force in the Syrian crisis and waiting to keep watching
the trends of the international actors in the crisis namely the United States of America, Russia and the regional actors, most notably Iran and Hezbollah. [25]
5 / Turkey’s fear that its military intervention in Syria may aggravate the crisis in the Syrian interior and may lead to the deterioration of the situation and lead to the collapse of the Syrian state, which is a direct threat to the Turkish national security and increase the crisis of Syrian refugees to Turkey and the influx of terrorist groups in addition to the growing Kurdish movement.
6 / Turkey’s attempts by relying on the soft power of diplomacy to isolate the Syrian regime and impose more sanctions on it and prepare the opposition as a legitimate alternative to Bashar Assad’s regime, by supporting the Syrian opposition and welcoming its leaders in Turkey.
7. NATO’s position that NATO is unwilling to intervene in the Syrian situation means that any military intervention by Turkey in Syria as a Turkish member of NATO does not mean NATO intervention in Syria, which has led to a retreat in the option of military intervention by Turkey in Syria during that period. [26] ] .