It was not much time to close the polls of the Turkish parliamentary elections to announce at the dawn of the next day for its semi-final results . The following table compares among the the number of seats obtained by the main political parties in the Turkish parliamentary elections which took place in June and November, so as to find out the reasons for this victory , its implications and its impact on domestic and foreign policy of Turkey
When comparing the results of the current election with the results of June’s election , we note that the the change in the electoral weight of the parties, where the Justice and Development Party ratio increased (8.7%), and by this percentage , the Justice and Development Party has regained nearly four and a half million electoral votes, compared with what it had been lost in elections of the last June . While the Republican People’s Party maintained almost the same percentage, and the support ratio of the Nationalist Movement Party was declined (4.5%), and the Democratic Peoples’ Party (2%).
The recent elections and the semi-final results according to the table above indicate that there are significant shifts occurred and the most important are first: the AKP victory in Turkey’s parliamentary elections, and this success of the party was not beyond than several measures were taken to enable it to win the election. Perhaps the most important of which is to change the law of the three parliamentary sessions, which was to prevent deputes of the party of submit for the elections for other term , which caused a great damage to the popularity of the party , and pushed many symbols ,who were known in their departments , to parliamentary and political retirement prematurely, and the search for a young faces, unknown to voters , for candidacy instead of known personalities especially in the countryside and small towns, where voters associated with persons, more than parties .This paragraph of the internal rules of the party in these elections was canceled, and many parliamentary faces were allowed to resume their candidacy , boosting the chances of the party in many circles, which are dominated by partisan personalities known to the voter.
Add to this that the party has changed its election platform, where it rule out , at least temporarily, the project to divert the Turkish system from parliamentary to presidential, and the president of the Republic of Turkey, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, has taken in the last elections a calculated distance from the his party’s election campaign, unlike what happened in June elections / last June, where the electorate Turkish voters refused to replace the parliamentary elections into a referendum on the form of the political system. The Justice and Development Party took advantage of the tendency of a voter to stability that ensures security in a very turbulent regional surroundings , especially after the return of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party to take up arms, and the aggression of organization of the State in Iraq and the Levant “Daash” on the Turkish state, and entering the country to the semi-open war with the Kurds and the state organization . Here, voters went to the settlement in stability. All of the above is reflected in favor of the party taking into the consideration that an important part of Turkish voters returned to vote for it which a very important economic outcome is available with it , so that the Liberal conservative Islamic party has transferred Turkey to the emerging countries. Therefore, the Party under the semi-final results able to form a Turkish government alone.
So, to form it alone requires only 276-seat, and here he got to the 317 seat now. In these elections, the AKP managed to get 59 extra seat. Despite the importance of this result for the Justice and Development Party, but it will not be able to change the Turkish Constitution under the dome of the Grand National Council “,” the Turkish Parliament, as it requires a 367 seat. It also will not be able to pass any constitutional amendments and submit them to a referendum because it would require to get 330 seats, and the AKP may compensate this digital shortfall amounting to 13 seats from the Nationalist movement ,either to bid some of its deputies to resign from the party or at least to get support for its constitutional amendments . .
Second, the decline of nationalist Turks and Kurds, and retreat of nationalist Turks in this election due to the National polarizing discourse that prevailed after the resumption of PKK war against the Turkish state last July, and the resentment of the electoral base of the negative attitudes of the President of the Nationalist Movement Party Devlet Bhishla which made the party to miss an opportunity to participate in the government by forming a coalition with the Justice and Development Party government. This resentment has led to a fragmentation within the Nationalist Movement Party represented by a sharp cleft, and when the leader of the party was confronted with protests of the son of founding leader of the movement, Turul Turkeh , and the head of the party dismissed the son of the founder of the movement prompting him to go with his supporters to the Justice and Development Party, and run on the lists of Islamic conservative party , and this is what made the Nationalist Movement Party to loss half of its seats in Parliament between June and November (come down from 80 to 41 seats), and this was a severe blow to the National Party, which described its leader, Mr. no , and the decline of the Democratic Peoples Party is due to its foggy position and supported in one way or another by the Turkish Kurdistan Workers’ Party, which made it to loss the left voices and the Turkish, Kurdish traders who prefer stability and economic development environment.
Undoubtedly, the results of these elections constitute a victory for the President of the Republic of Turkey Recep Tayyip Erdogan and Prime Minister Ahmed Davutoglu, the Justice and Development Party, the Turkish president did not encourage the formation of a coalition government, and support of holding an early parliamentary elections. Perhaps the reason for this lies in the negatives of coalition governments occurred in the modern history of Turkey and in the collective memory, as the Turkish State and society had suffered of this type of Governments , so in the seventies of the elapsed century ,the Turkish society was on the verge of civil war as a result of the weakness of the coalition government, and this continue due to its weakness and the rampant of the economic corruption, until the advent of the Justice and Development Party to rule Turkey in November of the year 2002. Which ended the era of coalition governments, and began the phase of governments that were formed by a single party, and the results of these governments were clear to all observers and political analysts and researchers , and here , we are not in a position to expand and explain the achievements of the Justice and Development Party in various areas of the state.
With this victory, the president will be able to rule the state, including with what he enjoys of the elements of non-material force until it can be reached to a change or amend the Constitution, to gain access to the presidential system. As for Ahmed Davutoglu at a personal level, he has successfully overcome the difficult phase of his party in the parliamentary elections and this success was confirmed as his ability to lead the party. Finally, the Justice and Development Party is considered as the third victorious in the Turkish elections as it was able to return, and again strongly to the Turkish political scene after tripping that happened to it last June elections.
The question is whether this government will be able to face the multiple challenges that gripped the country at the domestic level at some point between the two required elections ? Does it will produce a change in the foreign policy of the ruling Justice and Development party ?
Internally, we can talk about two probabilities : The first is the political instability, driven by the adoption of the party’s policies to continue to insist on the establishment of a presidential system, and put pressure on the opposition, and continue to reduce the freedom of the media, and the adoption of a militant positions in the Kurdish question, as well as that the recent elections created disparities and polarization of nationalism (Turkish / Kurdish) and political (secular / Islamic) and will be difficult to be addressed quickly, and thus these factors lead to a state of chaos and instability . The second :political stability, the government adopts a policy based on to absorb all, and thus re-launch peace talks with the Kurds, and to negotiate with ” Democratic Peoples’ Party. ” Because Historical and present leaders of the ruling Justice and Development realize more deeply, it is difficult, if not impossible, to access the first centennial anniversary of the founding of the modern Turkish state, and Turkey enjoy with prosperity, stable , good living , national harmony ,overcome decades of social anxiety, and become the tenth economy globally If the Kurdish question is not s solved peacefully and that Turkey truly become the State of the citizen in which all ethnic and religious components are melt to produce a civil a modernist and contemporary state .
Externally, the AKP government is facing in the coming period, four important issues on the foreign policy level, the Kurdish region, the Syrian crisis and accession to the European Union. Forming a regional alliance. Kurdish region , that is to continue to prevent the Kurds from the establishment of the Kurdish region, which is considered as a unified state for the Kurds in northeastern of Syria, it means continuing to apply the idea of creating a safe area between the cities (Afrin and Carchemish), as well as providing a solution to the problem of Syrian refugees. Syrian crisis, the Turkish position towards the Syrian issue continues, demands the departure of Assad, and to support the opposition organizations. As for Turkey’s accession to the Union it can be said that the great period of the National Council, “” Turkish current four-year parliament, it is not unlikely that Ankara will renew its attempts to join the European Union, especially that there is suggestive evidence of this. Of which was the visit of the German Chancellor Angela Merkel and met with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan at the height of the election campaign. In addition to encouraging signals that have emerged from some other European countries. With regard to the formation of a regional alliance, it is expected that the formation of a regional alliance will be achieved including Turkey and the Gulf states and Egypt for the purpose of liquidation of the Iranian influence in the Levant . Turkey now enjoys an image as a responsible state which provides order and security to the region, one that prioritizes democracy and liberties, while dealing competently with security problems at home.
We conclude from the results of the Turkish parliamentary elections that the door of success will be opened to those who push it strongly and boldly, this an old true saying applied to the Turkish president, Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who opposed, since the announcement of the results of the elections in the last June , the formation of a coalition government, after the failure of his party “Justice and Development” to get an absolute majority, and preferred to resort to the people in the current November elections. Son of the lane of Pasha Qasim does not hide his hatred to the coalition governments, nor his ambition to lead Turkey towards Vision of 2023.
Muammar Faisal Kholi
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies