The differences between the religious Marja in Najaf on the one hand, and Iran on the other hand are widen with every week that passes from the age of the Iraqi uprising, which puts the forces and parties in Iran’s orbit in an unprecedented position, translated by the state of political chaos during the last days in Baghdad. This comes at a time when demonstrations continue in Iraq, as tens of thousands gathered in the squares, public squares and main streets of Baghdad and southern and central Iraq yesterday, in response to calls by Iraqi activists on social media during the past hours, and the protesters confirmed their adherence to their basic demands that they have raised since the beginning of the last October, and Iraqi security forces deployed around the protest areas without incident.
Just a few hours before the end of the constitutional deadline for selecting a new head of the Iraqi government , the Federal Supreme Court in Iraq responded to an inquiry submitted to it by President of the Republic Barham Salih regarding the major parliamentary bloc, in which the constitution restricted the right to nominate a prime minister, as it confirmed in a statement that the great bloc was formed by the largest number of deputies in the first sessions of Parliament after the elections.
This assertion from the court led to confusion of the various political forces and allowed again the multiplicity of interpretations of the decision, as each party attributes to itself the title of the Great Bloc, whether the “Saroon” coalition led by Muqtada Al-Sadr, or the “Al-Fatah” coalition led by Hadi Al-Amiri.
The court said in a statement issued today at noon, that it “received last Thursday a request from the President of the Republic regarding the identification of the major bloc, and that after scrutiny and consultation and to refer to the priorities of its interpretation of the provision of Article (76) of the Constitution of the Republic of Iraq for the year 2005 and its contents that the expression (the largest number of parliamentary bloc ) contained in Article (76) of the constitution means either the bloc that was formed after the elections through one electoral list, or the bloc that was formed after the elections from two or more lists from the electoral lists, and entered the House of Representatives and its seats became after entering the parliament and its members took the constitutional oath in the first session the most numerous than the rest of the blocs, the President of the Republic assigns its candidate to form a cabinet in accordance with the provisions of Article (76) of the Constitution and within the period specified in it.
It added, “This is what the Supreme Federal Court has decided upon in accordance with its decisions mentioned above in the interpretation of Article (76) of the Constitution and the statement of the concept of the largest number of parliamentary blocs.” Noting that “the decisions of the Federal Supreme Court are final and binding for all the legislative, executive and judicial authorities stipulated in Article (47) of the constitution, and accordingly the Federal Supreme Court decides its commitment to its aforementioned decisions.
Last Friday, the Iraqi religious authority, Ali Sistani, today, Friday, calls to hold early parliamentary elections after the enactment of a fair election law and an independent election commission. And the representative of Sistani, in Karbala, Sheikh Abd al-Mahdi al-Karbalai, quoted as saying, “We have indicated in a previous sermon that the people are the source of powers and from it they derive their legitimacy as stipulated by the constitution, and accordingly the nearest and safest way to get out of the current crisis and avoid going to the unknown or chaos or internal fighting is to return to the people by holding early elections.
What is going on in Iraq is in fact a struggle between the will of the Iraqi people of all its components, and Iranian domination over the main joints of decision in the Iraqi state and society, since the fall of Saddam Hussein’s regime, which caused the fragmentation of the Iraqi community fabric, and entered Iraq, the Arabs and the whole region in the cycle of violence, whose results are still interacting and exacerbating .
What is happening in Iraq today is a reduction of the blood’s decision that the regime chose after the choice of corruption and looting from 2003 until today, and for this reason the historical moment opened to the people, and the hour of Qassem Soleimani’s departure from Iraq is not far away, and he will cry over his past when he was implementing the youth elimination project and the displacement of the people of Mosul, Salah al-Din, Diyala, Fallujah and Jurf al-Sakhr from their homes, and he moves between the Iraqi mounds and valleys boasting and doing against Iraqi people , but his grandfather Kisra had previously bid farewell to his palace defeated in Al-Madaen city east of Baghdad.
Iraqis today are in the throes of a massive popular revolution in order to achieve supreme national goals that Iraq has missed for many years. It appeared that some officials did not respond to the call of the revolution, as they revolve around the same system, and have their networks and interests, whatever their political affiliations. It is a very strange situation for everyone to be on one side and the people on the other side. In order for the regime to escape its crime, create the name of the third party! But there are those who play on the ropes as a hidden column, declaring their support for the revolution and concealing their loyalty to the regime. Accordingly, Iraqi society is divided between itself, revolutionaries and supporters, and between rulers and loyalists. There are millions with steadfast revolutionaries with others silent. But there are insignificant, insignificant sectarian clerics, beneficiaries, mercenaries, and corrupt members of society, who are characterized by their shaky characters and their sick psychologists.
The situation in which Iraq currently lives is mainly due to the weakness of the Iraqi state, which allowed the Iranian regime to infiltrate into the state’s structure through the various parties, forces, and militias that were associated with it in many forms, and for various reasons, until it became an organic part of the aforementioned regime itself, going according to orders and dictates coming from the regime of the Wilayat` al-Faqih, through its various military and intelligence services.
As for the American influence on the arrangement of the Iraqi situation, it appears that it was not as strong and large as the Iranian role. However, it was clear that the consensus between the two parties was the cornerstone of the agreement on the names of the three presidencies and the formation of the government. But despite that compatibility, the influence of Iran was greater, due to its penetration, proximity, and size of its presence on Iraqi soil, along with its direct relations with the crowd factions and other military militias, which have never covered up their submission to the Iranian regime, and their commitment to the directions and security orders of Iran.
These militias have managed to remove the Iraqi national forces that were, and still are, calling for national action and transcend sectarian borders, which are the borders that have been established , and the Iranian regime has invested in them, so that as a result of his influence, the Iranian regime managed to include the militias associated with it within the Iraqi defense military system , and gets money and weapons from the Iraqi budget, and recruits Iraqi citizens, but the leadership remains in the hands of the Iranian regime, and are charged with missions in favor of the Iranian strategy.
But the Iraqi popular protests, especially in the southern regions, in Nasiriyah, Basra, Najaf itself and Baghdad, have unveiled what is going on, and people are publicly calling for the Iranian regime to stop its interference in Iraq and its people, so that the Iraqis can find solutions to their problems themselves. These are problems of living, educational, health in the first place, which successive governments have not been able to address since the fall of the previous regime, despite the fictional financial revenues that Iraq is supposed to receive in exchange for oil exports. However, it seems that the organized chaos in the country has enabled corruption to transfer these sums to the accounts of private officials; or to accounts around which suspicions exist in terms of serving the Iranian strategy in the region, including supporting Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria in the face of the revolution of the Syrian people.
The problem in Iraq is deep structural, related to the structure of the state, the militia’s ability to pressure and interfere, and to impose dictations on the government with direct and indirect support from the Iranian regime.
The precarious situation in the region, and the allegations of fighting terrorism, were among the justifications adopted by the Iranian governments to evade entitlements of accountability. But after the outcome of the massive negative accumulations was revealed, it became clear to people that what is happening in Iraq is not the result of the unstable situation in the region, but rather that it was the corruption of the government; and that there are many doubts about the fight against ISIS, especially if one follows the map of ISIS attacks in Iraq, and checked with a closer look at the nature of the beneficiaries from the ISIS attacks.
With the formation of the Adel Abdul-Mahdi government, everyone expected a kind of stability, and it was understood that the agreement on Abdel-Mahdi was the outcome of the US-Iranian consensus; but it seems that the huge negative accumulations faced by the Abdul-Mahdi government in almost all other fields of life were greater than the capacity of the government concerned, therefore It was the great public explosion that put everyone ahead of their responsibilities. It is enough and people can no longer afford it.
The question remains: What is the solution?
The most effective and best solution for Iraqis with all their affiliations is the Iraqi national solution, and the basis of this solution is to build a national political system that guarantees the rights of all citizens of all affiliations, and in all fields without exception on the basis of respecting privacy, ensuring rights, and adopting the principle of pluralism in its broad sense within the framework of national unity , which cuts the road to all foreign interference, to make the interests of Iraqis and their country at the top of priority list for any upcoming Iraqi government, emanating from an elected parliament through the free will of citizens.
As for Iraq to remain a backyard for the Iranian regime, through which it practices a policy of destabilizing the security and stability of the region, interfering in the affairs of its states, and tears its societies, this means that the crisis will continue, and will intensify more, and the dark future will be waiting for Iraq, and perhaps the whole region.
Hence the importance of the international position and the US in particular, as it is the most influential in Iraq. What is required is intervention, preventing the Iranian regime and its militias from killing activists threatening demonstrators and sit-ins, betting on factors of time, containment, ripping up rows, and stirring sectarian and regional tendencies.
Washington must do everything in its power to compel Tehran, at least, to reduce the pace and scope of its operations, choose less profitable targets, and resort to less effective means to carry out its attacks. This approach may reduce the costs that Tehran may impose and the possibility of escalation as well, and for that to happen, the administration of President Donald Trump should avoid statements and steps that undermine deterrence, better align the goals, ways and means of the US strategy, and mislead Tehran more about cost-benefit calculations, demonstrate a greater degree of acceptance by the United States of the dangers, and make threats from multiple directions to Tehran, in order to have to permanently give priority to its responses. When dealing with difficult actors such as Iran, Washington must at times be prepared to escalate the situation in order to stop this escalation and ultimately calm the situation, in the pursuit of the goal of resolving the crisis in a non-violent manner.
The bottom line : Iraqis have become in dire need to forget their differences, and to unite now with one national alignment, and towards one goal, to restore a dear homeland slaughtered by brothers, agents, fools and mullahs, and all the corrupt, emergency parasites, rogue and mercenaries who have corrupted Iraq, and their tyranny has reached to kill Iraqis and kidnap women in Streets. Let all of Iraq be a single bloc together against this oppressive ruling junta, and all those who support it falsely and with falsehood.
The Iraqi national state, with all of its sons, and for all its sons, the state that takes privacy into consideration, adopts the political and administrative system that is consistent with the nature and needs of Iraqi society, and takes into consideration the past concerns and experiences, is the way out. As for being strong by outside support, it will only lead to more separation between the Iraqis, and exacerbate the problems to the extent that all harmful possibilities are expected.
Iraqi Studies Unit
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies