BY:Shatha kalel
Strong economic growth figures may impress investors, economists, and policy experts. But for the average citizen, the real scoreboard in any election is not measured by GDP growth, but by gas prices, grocery bills, rent, and mortgage payments. That is why positive economic data can coexist with widespread public anger. In politics, people do not vote for numbers in tables, they vote based on the pressure they feel every day.
Recent data showed that the U.S. economy grew at an annual rate of 2% in the first quarter of 2026, despite geopolitical tensions and rising energy prices. However, inflation rose to 3.3%, gasoline prices jumped to $4.30 per gallon, and mortgage rates increased from 5.98% to 6.3%.
The economic reality behind the numbers
GDP measures total economic output. It can rise due to increased business investment, government spending, exports, or technological expansion. In this case, heavy spending by major tech companies and investments in artificial intelligence helped support growth.
But GDP growth does not necessarily mean comfort for households.
The average American family asks different questions:
Can I afford this week’s necessities?
Why has fuel become more expensive?
Why has rent increased again?
Why is my mortgage payment higher?
When the answers are negative, growth figures lose their political power.
Why cost of living dominates elections
The cost of living affects voters directly and repeatedly:
Inflation is immediately felt
Consumers feel rising prices every time they go shopping, while economic growth remains an abstract figure.
Energy prices spread across the economy
Higher oil prices increase transportation, food distribution, shipping, aviation, and manufacturing costs, pushing prices up across the entire economy.
High interest rates punish borrowers
When inflation rises, central banks often delay cutting rates, keeping borrowing costs, mortgages, and credit card interest high.
Unequal growth fuels frustration
If stocks rise while households struggle, voters may feel that growth benefits Wall Street more than Main Street.
The political danger zone
This creates a risky political environment for any government:
Markets may celebrate growth,
Companies may report strong profits,
The wealthy may benefit from rising stocks,
But the average voter may feel poorer.
This gap between strong economic performance and everyday financial pressure often decides elections.
What could happen next?
If fuel prices fall, supply chains stabilize, and inflation declines, voters may reward stability.
But if energy prices remain high and borrowing costs stay elevated, strong growth numbers may not save any government at the ballot box.
The final economic verdict
A strong economy is not measured only by how much a country produces, but by how much purchasing power households retain.
GDP wins headlines.
But the cost of living wins votes.
Economic Studies Unit – North America Office
Center for Linkage Studies and Strategic Research