Syrian crisis and its ongoing repercussions was and still the cause of controlled tension in the Turkish-Russian relations. This tension may see a new turning point of escalation between them, especially with Turkish fighter planes venture of shooting down Russian fighter claiming violation of Turkish airspace, and this hypothesis is rejected by Russia and considers it as a clear aggression of Turkey.
It seems through the torrent of contradictory conflicting information spread by the two countries that they were insisted to lay the charge on each other and adopt a policy of denial until the very end:
– The Turkish government says it shot down the fighter after violating of Turkish airspace and a Turkish official pointed out that the two Russian planes were close to the border, where they were repeatedly warned and then fired on one of them, while Russia asserts that the plane did not leave the Syrian airspace.
– Turkish military officials released what they said was the radar image of the path the Russian plane took, showing it flying across Turkey’s southern- most tip, in Hatay province and saying that it showed a breach of Russian fighter to the atmosphere of its country , while the Russian Defense Ministry stressed it could prove the aircraft never left the Syrian airspace.
– The Turkish government says that its plane was of”F-16″ type which shot down Russian fighter, while Moscow indicates that its fighter of the Su-24 type was hit from the ground which was at an altitude of six meters .
– Syrian opposition has said it is holding the body of a pilot and looking for another, likely he was killed where their plane crashed into the mountain of Turkmen in Brive Latakia.
The shooting down of Russian fighter raises , which Moscow described as “a very serious incident ” and Turkey saw it in response to the rules of engagement and the right of self-defense, the repercussions on the relations between Moscow and Ankara, and the first of these consequences was the abolition of Russia’s Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov’s visit to Ankara, which was scheduled for November 25 th.
This regional event comes with the discomfort of Western countries like the United States, the United Kingdom and Turkey and some Arab countries of Russia’s policies in the Middle East, especially after the direct military intervention in Syria, on the thirtieth of last September and this discomfort can be noted by following indicators : first sending Russia’s long-range missiles to Syria and this is what annoyed chief of staff of the Turkish military, because the military battles in Syria do not need this type of missiles as they do not have an exact technology like the American rockets so the margin of error in achieving the target is possible. the second index is represented in forcing Some Arab countries by Russia , including Lebanon and Syria to change Civil path of their trips in the Mediterranean so as not to be vulnerable to missiles launched from warships from the sea and that it does not also be the target of its air fighters.
In this regional environment of troubled Middle Eastern that are similar in the current circumstances, the ones of Europe on the eve of the First and second World War in terms of political and military competition based on the economic dimension and international crises in both political and economic branches , and the failure of international institutions as the League of Nations after the First World and currently the United Nations currently after the Second World War in solving international disputes and conflicts. In this context, we can conclude that the Russian response to the dropping of its fighter according to two possibilities:
Probability I : direct or indirect military response: direct means Russia’s entry into military confrontation directly with Turkey, and that the confrontation have its enormous military and material cost and have global consequences; because Russia in this case would not be facing Turkey alone, but NATO which supported its position in shoot down Russian fighter, as the United States endorsed it , and this endorsement came during a press conference held by US President Barack Obama with his French counterpart Francois Hollande in the White House in the current November 24 saying that “it is Turkey’s right to defend its sovereignty,” In the light of this dual support , the direct Russian attack on Turkey automatically mean the attack on the NATO countries as stipulated in Article V of its charter. The confrontation between them ie between Russia and NATO in preparation for a third world war to establish a new world order, as happened after World War I and II and the end of the stage after the Cold War. The assassination of the Duke of Austrian was the reason for the outbreak of World War I, and Hitler’s expansionist policies was the cause in World War II, Will shooting down Russian aircraft be the reason for the eruption of regional or international war , especially Turkey is a member in NATO alliance? But not Russia nor NATO wants this destructive confrontation for objective reasons .
As for the indirect confrontation is most likely in this scene , Russia will respond to this drop in the Syrian and Turkish home, in Syria , Russia will work to intensify its military presence there and the military strikes may reach the level of crushing the Syrian military opposition, backed by Turkey, especially within the Aleppo province, it will also target any Turkish fighter flying in Syrian airspace, and in this context Russia brought warship «Moscow» that carry the most important missile type in the world against aircraft and put it next to the beach of Latakia and said that any dangerous target will be shot down and this means that Russia can drop any Turkish plane if approached the Turkish-Syrian border without violating Syrian airspace. As it would work with her pro-wing within the Kurdistan Labour Party for military strikes on the Turkish border and in depth, and to support the demands of the Kurds for independence, which would work to the attrition of Turkey .
The second possibility- : freeze economic relations and work to damage the Turkish economy: despite the diplomatic differences between Turkey and Russia on the background of the Syrian crisis, but the economic relations between them were not affected by this dispute until the drop the Russian fighter, but this time it looks completely different, it may be for the first time in the era of the Justice and Development government and under President Vladimir Putin , the diplomatic and military tension and escalation between the two countries was reflected on their economic relations, so the neutralization of it between them has become a thing of the past, since it is possible that Russia freeze all economic agreements recently signed with the recent visit of the Turkish Prime Recep Tayyip Erdogan , as the Commercial exchange who they were trying to reach between them during the next five years to US $ 30 billion. As well as agreements relating to the energy sector, while damage to the Turkish economy means Russia is targeting Turkish Tourism and sabotage through Al-kurdistan Workers’ Party noting that Turkey is annually visited by 46 million tourists a year, including 4.3 Russian ones , and the sector gains about the US $ 36 billion a year.
It can be said that the first possibility with its second branch and the second possibility as a whole remains the most presence in the scene of the Turkish-Russian relations, and can for the first time the mating be made between two scenes and applied at the same time and this is due to the complexities of the political, economic and security data at the regional scene and perhaps the entire international.
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies