Muammar Faysal Khouli *
Translated by : mudhaffar al-kusairi
US-Iranian relations are experiencing an unprecedented state of tension in the history of their relations after the Iranian revolution, as the Iranian military escalation has reached its peak as the Iranian Revolutionary Guards dropped a US reconnaissance aircraft (drone) , a clear message from the Iranians to the Americans and their allies in Arabian Gulf, which Tehran has threatened to target them in the event of any aggression against it. The Americans dealt directly with the Iranians in Iraq after the fall of Saddam Hussein in 2003, and they are aware of the size and seriousness of the papers they have there.
The shooting down of the American plane (drone ) has brought back the image of the Trump administration, divided between its hardliner hawks, and the cautious president in rushing to plunge his country into yet another inconceivable and seemingly endless war, prompting it to intensify its efforts to define its strategy toward Tehran between the options of response or restraint, and the tightening of sanctions or negotiation, as some of the reactions to recent developments appeared, as Trump prefers – so far – to impose more economic sanctions on Iran, as his response to the shooting down of the drone wasn’t militarily , but economically, Trump said he would impose additional sanctions , he wrote via his account on twitter – ” I didn’t say that retreated from striking Iran, as some say, this is wrong .. I just stopped its implementation at the present time.”
Although the dropping of the American aircraft was not the first, and may not be the last, since the escalation of tension between the United States and Iran, it was undoubtedly the most dangerous between the stations of tension and openness to all possibilities, after the transformation of the regional scene to a very dangerous game , it is no longer possible to grasp exact rules , Iran has allies, friends and supporters, and even followers, has the ability to play in more than one arena , but today, however, it does not appear to be the escaper from the confrontation, but rather it goes to the escalating response on its borders , in its waters and inside its airspace, as if the Iranians say to the US administration , stop tricks and maneuvers, and come directly to the overall confrontation, a message that would narrow the margin of American maneuver, pushing Washington to a decisive option : either go towards a settlement , to give up all its decisions, or going to overall confrontation and waiting for the harvest.
But on what prospects does the scene remain open?
All the regional and international countries, and even the two conflicting parties “USA, Iran” realize that the war will be costly and difficult, both in terms of the economic or military, security and political repercussions. The imposed military confrontation is not wanted by anyone, despite the escalation and while the Iranian president threatening to reject what he calls US conditions and dictates, he confirms that his country does not want war, but is ready to defend itself, as we hear from US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo that President Trump does not want war, and there are many messages exchanged between the two countries at the moment.
Does this mean that Washington and Tehran know the consequences of the war and are reluctant to enter it? This is at least what the Middle Eastern countries hope, in particular, which have suffered so much from successive adventures, seeking to provide more stable opportunities for the lives of their citizens and their future, and the international community in general, because this war has negative repercussions on the global economy and security.
In spite of all the political analyzes that have been written in recent years about the decline of the importance of the Middle East in the accounts of the superpowers , the administration of Trump finds itself involved in a major test in the horrific Middle East , and Iran is betting on threatening the world economy, and hit the chances of Trump in a second term , by raising oil prices, and Trump is betting on the activation of economic sanctions to force Iran to give him what it has refused to give to Barack Obama.
The talks on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Osaka this week on Iran are very important. We are in the middle of the crisis and the forecast is difficult, but the leaders of the IRGC may conclude the difficulty of continuing the escalation against Donald Trump, the economic sanctions here and there, shaking the pillars of the Iranian economy is more dangerous to the Iranian state than the bombing of missile platforms, radars and the destruction of bridges. The Soviet Union had an arsenal of conventional and nuclear weapons capable of destroying the globe, but this country disintegrated in December 1991, without firing a single shot by America .
The bottom line is that after the American plane was shot down and the Revolutionary Guards may be repeating it, it is necessary for Washington and Tehran to get out of the tree to maintain global peace, security and the economy, because the open war between them will lead to the endless calamities, only god knows it and those who are firmly rooted in knowledge.
Rawabet Center for Research and Strategic Studies